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Maybe a low-end severe threat for both Saturday and Sunday, although instability is just so limited. I'm tossing the overmixed HRRR.

CPC has us wet to start the summer, but I'm definitely skeptical. I'm not sure about persistently hot, though.

Yes to all of that. We can certainly get meaningful severe here in July, but the retreating jet causes really higher-end supercell threats tend to wane by the end of June, unless we hit on some TC stuff in the fall.

Drought brings forth more drought. Rain chances are diminishing for Sunday. Then looks like an extended dry period. With summer on the doorstep. There is going to be a lot of burn bans. I would not be surprised if this drought continues to worsen that the 4th fireworks will be cancelled. We won't be mowing yards much longer. I hate brown summers & go right into more brown during fall & winter. Hopefully what looks to be dry turns into wet.

I really hate the darkness more than cold/snow, it's depressing to put it succinctly. But snow in April or May blows equally as much, even if it's 80 the next day.

Gotcha Chief, so how would you describe the 8 days before we get to that point ?

What the F? Just looking at the skin on my hands you'd think it was January outside.

The warm pattern begins the 16th

exactly! Those stupid models too. Who's going to believe charts?

Apps ?

10-day looks promising. Can you imagine being stupid enough to install in April?

Yeah looks like a real beauty.

18 ZGFS has a a monster ridge at the end of that run

Yeah, I don’t mean to come across all instructional . I’m actually just sick of it frankly ha ha I make it no secret that I am equally interested in summer weather phenomenon, just as I am about deep winter phenomenon “in the winter” …not when it’s May and the pattern tries to act like it’s winter. fuck that. Anyway, I track and study the synoptics of heat waves and so forth. It’s just something I’m interested in Man. I realize we’re in the minority here those of us that like summer phenomenon. Convection being part of all that, etc..

Summer looks cold and rainy too.

So chilly but with summer daylight well past 8pm, it feels like it should be warmer.

update

2009-10 is a perfect example that proves that a strong el nino winter can be cold and snowy.

Yeah I don't doubt that, but my point was that said outcome lands nowhere near consistent 80's and 90's. More like a shot at hitting a few random heaters. We'll see, hope to be wrong ofc

No doubt it will feel more like summer once the pj retreats and weakens, that is not in question lol

12z GFS same time

It’s no secret that I’ve never been a fan of human bias of any kind (for something, against something, etc.) affecting the content and tone of communication, but unfortunately that’s human nature to an extent. I think it’s best to talk about things going on whether you like that they’re occurring or not rather than talking only about things you like.

Somewhat cooler weather will continue through the remainder of the week. The first 10 days of May will likely see temperatures average cooler than normal normal overall. Showers are possible tomorrow into tomorrow evening as a warm front moves across the region. Sunday will turn warmer with highs reaching the 70s. Additional rain and somewhat cooler conditions will return for Sunday night into Monday. Rainfall amounts are not likely to be significant. In the long-range, there has been a shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The probability of a warmer than normal second half of May has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -0.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.612 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.2° (1.0° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Great article on the nasty weeds we all continue to kill . It’s a battle , but we overcome https://share.google/ATiD7pMfdMiTlTOQD