All Activity

With these trends I’m starting to get nervous this goes the other direction and we mix to rain. Tale as old as time.

I don’t think it’ll be but winds. Breezy but not 35+. I’ll let someone way smarter correct me if needed!

BRRR!

The NAM can probably barely contain its excitement over being able to work that warm nose in another day or so.

If DC gets a foot and the NW burbs get 2 feet, I am not sympathetic to those inside the Beltway. I lived in PG for about 30 years, know the drill..

6 was my low. It’s funny the gfs had everyone questioning suppression and 12 hours later everyone is concerned about amplification

Did you just cancel the storm

Mine refused the rolling hills of Frederick County, MD so we are moving to Calvert Hoping for one last super MoCo-HoCo band from this storm before I start hanging out on the lower southern MD/eastern shore thread

If you are in central and southern Va get your supplies now, you may not have power for a while and brutal cold coming. Someone down there is getting a brutal ice storm.

Pointing more towards a climo based storm. Not sure if I buy >.5" of freezing rain the Euro wants to give the midshore. GFS has been showing the typical subsidence that sets up over the Eastern Shore. Sounds like from NOAA discussion in the main thread they are still waiting to verify the north trend with better data, so we wait. Perhaps this evening we can start getting a better handle on potential amounts and p-type.

Rob I thought I had it rough over here at +4 stay warm you guys and gals in " the sticks"

And that’s 10:1 ratios. Easily 1+ ft across SNE with ratios. EPS putting up close to 1” qpf up to 144 hrs.

De-amping as we get to day 3-4 has been a trend all year. Let’s see how this one goes with an actual STJ component

Usually you are colder than me. Today's a bit different. Crazy cold at our shop, though. Got down to -10 there.

Too soon. PF on standby…

I'm heading to Linville Gorge and reflect.

You know who is going to say how that's a step back

I 100% could be wrong, but I thought someone in NWS told it which ones to favor in its average?

Some of us would be fine with it over the canal.

Obviously this is a very anomalous event, so maybe the usual rules don’t apply. But I’m keeping some otherwise very durable seasonal and La Niña patterns in my mind: short-term deamplification, suppressing SE ridge, destructive interference from the northern jet, and drier reality than modeled.

Looks like it does after a foot of snow. Still time for shifts.

The feature which makes or breaks the storm is less than 60 hours from making its move out of the SW. Models should be able to better predict how quickly it ejects east and how it phases with the NS piece today.

Someone on southernwx mentioned Dec 5 2002 as a potential analog: There are some differences, but I'm not sure its totally off the table

Is there any chance this trends so far that it ends up icestorm SNE and snow NNE?

We have been pretty lucky with moderate to heavy(6-10") all snow events over the last several years on the coastal plain, including 2 last winter. Probably due for a snow to sleet deal. Hopefully not freezing rain.