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Yes, it should break eventually. Not sure about cycles though... I think humans have a tendency to see/hallucinate cycles from random variation. This one might be done, however. I suspect that February 2010 storm may have been our last best chance of breaking this one; however, despite over 20" of snow, it was split fairly evenly over two days, keeping the calendar day total under one foot. Definitely can see each period getting longer... records began in 1880, first streak ends in 1884, then 1890, then 1901, then 1902, then 1913, then a long break ending in 1942, then 1950, then 1960, then 1966, another long break ending in 1993 (Storm of the Century) and none thereafter. If it is the last calendar day with one foot of snow in Pittsburgh history, fitting for it to be the March 1993 Superstorm.

Slow smoked overly hickory 15 or so hours

Yeah this could be a sneakily impactful wind event given it's the day before Thanksgiving and all. Could affect both air and road travel.

So apparently some think EDC should be fired too...I'm sorry but I don't understand. He is not a bad GM!

I love it when MD tips off at midnight

The weeklies change every day! In 3 days they will be different and it will be a new concern. The fact is, the modeling just can't do what we want and hope for it to do. As I get older, it's clear that long range modeling must be viewed with an eye on seasonal trends, both in the actual weather and the model errors/biases. IOW, how have the models been doing with medium and long range forecasts of late and what is the general tenor of the weather. This year, modeling has general been too warm at longer ranges and it frankly hasn't been a toaster oven for the past few months. All this considered, advertised medium/long range warmups should be viewed skeptically until they start to prevail. Until then, don't worry about it at all. And on a related note, it maybe fine to dissect every medium and long range model run because it's what we do. But until the mr/lr modeling can prove they are worth anything by being accurate and do so with day-to-day consistency, they cause more useless angst than they're worth imho and making forecasts off them with any certainty as I see being made are folly. Enjoy the cold Thanksgiving holiday weekend (another sign of the coming winter flavor) and forget about December's weather until December! Rant over.

If we get the warm pattern beyond the 10th it could very well entrench itself for the remainder of the season.

The cold will be lurking in Canada by next week just need a SW to come in under SNE but definitely cutter potential moving through first week of December. I think the interior has a shot at some frozen accumulation but we are talking out beyond day 7 or 8. Honestly, I would take a warm cutter over 1"-2" of slop turning to rain, this early in the season.

Like you, I see the typical biases in that thread as well. I have engaged them way back in the Eastern Weather days and unfortunately I believe there are some agendas at play. You guys always have great discussions in your Sub Forum and I follow y'all closely!

Euro weeklies isnt that warm. Also , im not sure why people think the 2nd half of December will be warm. This isnt a warm signal right now. Mjo into 8 and 1 is a cold signal.

Hey, it’s not the kill, it’s the thrill of the chase! Let’s just hope Sweet Lucy doesn’t pull the ball on us. (it’s in the lyrics)

I’m wondering if despite the clear warming trend of the Euro Weeklies related to its insistence of a stubborn potent SER along with the current progged switch to a +AO if there’s lower than normal confidence due to a combo of the MJO taking a track that’s often cold (though far from always as we know) and the current very weak SPV, which typically takes 2+ weeks to bring the E US persistent dominating cold.

big 'un, cne too

That’s one possible factor that has led me to continue to monitor the period. By the end of November, I think there will be greater clarity.

It's here folks!

Good write-up but I doubt you will get a warmup when the MJO goes into 8. Watch the models trend colder like they did with this upcoming period ahead next week.

I may be one of the few hoping to whiten the ground from the first storm. Backside Wed evening overnight to Thanksgiving morning "may" bring a streamer burst or two if things line-up just right. NCEP says I have a chance

Caps with the sweet W tonight! After the disaster Tampa game, this was a nice bounce back.

That's a great question and there was plenty of speculation, but the fact remains that it was Smith's demands specific to Gateway getting King that led to the situation. Should some blame go to the school board? Absolutely. But that doesn't mean that Smith shouldn't be blamed as well. From my understanding (I haven't followed PSU football in awhile), there seems to be an unhappy subset of fans too that see his pins as a political play/attempt to strong-arm Penn State and.... hey... I suppose it worked for him once with Gateway, why not again with Penn State?

You mean this one?

Can you tell me how one gets such God like powers that they can have a whole school board and administration eagerly on Their knees waiting to serve them? Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I obviously trust yours. You just don’t do the pretty maps, and as you know i love dirty pictures.

Yea, I was thinking that based solely on climo, the rain/snow line ends up much further north than currently forecast. Not a bad look, though, for late November. As you say, hopefully a sign of good things to come.

18z gfs has a nce snower for NNE 12/3