All Activity

Final seasonal NWS reported snowfall maps

Next 2 weeks don’t look great. May have to wait until mid June for summer weather

This is too much for Raleigh. I got 0.15” there is no way downtown got that much more. Also the farm in Louisburg had less than 0.20” and its SE of Louisburg on that map. So that is likely too high as well. Honestly cut these totals in half

NGL if the models still support some snow falling in WV I'll be taking a nice hike out there

Thanks, snowman. Indeed, it’s forecasting a 1982-3 redux as of now. The corresponding latest CFSv2 ONI forecast is at +3.0C, which is maintaining the recent ~0.5C difference between ONI and RONI:

So torch east-based super followed by another round of cool enso being the worst case scenario? Sounds like a warminista's dream, smh

Could not agree more Tip. The numbers don't lie song is highly overrated! The subject take by "non-weather geeks" like most of my friends and family, is that this spring has largely sucked. I know spring in New England is more often than not crappy. But I'm just not buying this has been a great spring spin.

The new CFS RONI forecast update is projecting that we at least tie (+2.5C) for the strongest El Niño on the RONI index, which was the 1982-83 super El Niño (also +2.5C). 1982-83 ended up being slightly stronger than 1997-98 on the RONI. The CFS has the traditional ONI peaking higher than the RONI for this event, but not by much….

Wednesday Severe Wx Potential Looking into the model guidance this morning and it appears there could be a severe weather threat for Wednesday afternoon/evening for Central MS into eastern TX. My chase area will focus be focused within the MS/LA Delta as the terrain the region is suitable for chasing as there will be little trees and hills to obscure my view while chasing. The only factor will be the Mighty MS RVR, but that can be easily managed pending on storm track, storm mode and storm speed/motion. Beginning with 00z on Wednesday with the 12z NAM run, the frontal boundary is orientated southwest to northeast. This orientation provides a nice dividing line between the warm sector and the cold sector for storms to develop for Tuesday afternoon/evening. However, the threat for storms will be located well out of my reach and will not be able to chase on Tuesday unless the threat for severe storms extended eastward into MS Delta on Tuesday, which there is little confidence that will occur. By 21z Wednesday, the cold front will have taken over the warm front and will have a west to east orientation by 21z Wednesday. If this were to occur, any discrete or supercells will be extremely limited and will likely be dealing with a linear event, unless some outflow boundary can cause some pre-frontal convection in the warm sector for Wednesday afternoon/evening. While model guidance shows southerly winds and instability within the region for Wednesday afternoon/evening, the 850 and 925mb winds shows a weak LLJ and only a slight wind shift towards the southwest. With these factors combined, Wednesday could likely be more of a linear event and possibility for discrete cells will likely be limited at this time. At this time, I am not impress with this coming up system for a potential chase, especially this far out. While I did skip over Tuesday, I will continue to watch to see if model data will change or convince me to chase on Tuesday, but challenges for Tuesday would be more logistics based and not meteorological based at this time. For me to chase Tuesday, the threat for the MS/LA Delta will need to extend towards the region. A Day 3 Marginal Risk for severe weather does do it for me, especially when it is concentrated towards NE AR/ NW TN/MO. Date: 5/3/2026

Meanwhile in DEN coming up. Scott again: " Why can't we get that here? -- I WANT A MAY 9-10, 1977 EVERY YEAR!" Interesting for DEN this snow season. They currently have more snow March-April (13.9") than meteorological winter (13.2") and more on the way. I bring this up b/c the clueless media could not stop talking about how there was a lack of snow this winter in the Rockies in Feb. However, the window for snow goes well beyond meteorological winter here, but of course the media doesn't realize this, or conveniently ignores to push hype/a narrative (no more snow). It's also the East Coast bias, as if the climate is the same everywhere and the East Coast (esp. NYC) is the standard! So even though meteorological winter was lacking for snow in the Rockies, they have made up some ground March-April, and will continue to do so short-term. The point is it no longer the record lowest for snow. Yes, still below avg, but that not the same as all-time records. These days any deviation from normal or anomaly is treated as unusual or extreme. What planet are they living on? And what do you think the headlines will be coming up in the next week? Not the unusually persistent cool wx in the East, but the "heat dome" in the West, despite the CO snowstorm.

There’s a May 2026 obs thread here:

KSAV (airport) had a record breaking low of 46 this morning. It was colder than all of the model profs, which were 49 to low 50s. The 46 is the second coldest low since March 21st! Also for KSAV, that’s the 4th record low within the last 12 months: 11/11/2025, 2/1/2026, 3/18/26, and 5/3/26 6/27/2012 through 5/14/2013 appears to be the last time for that to have occurred. As the dates show, KSAV has had 4 record lows within just the last 6 months! The last time there were 4 record lows within 6 months: 6/6/2005-7/11/2006. There were a whopping 6 during 5/23/2006-7/11/2006! Considering the warming globe, that’s getting more and more difficult and is thus quite notable. To put the GW related handicap into perspective, there have been 9 record highs during this same period that there were 4 record lows. Hunter (KSVN) had a low of 47. Today and tomorrow will be very pleasant for early May with forecasted highs in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints of mainly 45-52.

Just be thankful those model solutions from 10 or so days back failed. They had us heading into some kind of a 2005 May redux ... Tomorrow at about 4pm will be like a completely different universe. mid 60s to lower 70s, with partly to mostly sunny. Altho probably a tad breezy for some tastes. Tuesday could be 80... At no time in the 2005 May ordeal did we even see 50 spanning that multi-week captivity.

Meanwhile, the 12z GFS agrees. Either both are off their rocker, or the foothills and divide are gonna get rocked. Either way, the models all seem to be trending in the right direction and I am starting to get cautiously optimistic.

I know who you’re referring to and even those 2 are not enjoying this today . One of them I guarantee is inside watching tv and the other one is probably sleeping

I can think of at least 2 people.

There’s no way any salesperson could spin or smear lipstick on a pig and make today better. Mid 40’s, cloudy and windy with heavy blowing pollen. There is not one single person that wants this weather in warm season . Thankfully this is it.

45f miserable, cloudy degrees. Off to Denver tomorrow for couple days. Looks like snow there, then back on Weds to some rain. Lovely Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Yup...probably a little downslope combined with a stabilizing effect from the cooler river waters.

Was snowing this morning as I drove over the Molly Stark Byway Ridge where the bodies are buried. Froze in my tent last night! Pretty sure I heard graupel overnight. Just overall a terrible couple days. Feels like we're going backwards.

Let us all know when you get back on. We'll have a backlog of posts attributed to the cool below normal temperatures, cloud filled skies, and gusty cold wind at times we have been experiencing since you jumped ship.

Another crappy day

Still feel this will end up happening....sorry, @Stormchaserchuck1 Cool ENSO, anyway...we'll have to see about technical La Nina, but I would hedge yes.

Didn't realize the forecasted high temperature for Tuesday is now the mid 80s