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Yeah only ~30 years on-air

Notice 1997-1998 didn't have a big +NAO? It occurred during ascending solar, not too far removed from solar min....not to mention -QBO.

@Stormchaserchuck1, I think I know why the connection between intense El Niño and +NAO seems overstated....the causation for the +NAO during intense El Niño is likely more due to higher-end El Niño being favored during descending solar/peak geomagnetic energy, rather then the intense El Nino itself. Descending solar/high geomagnetic is the actual "smoking-gun" behind the +NAO causation, however, intense El Niño with all of that warmth leaking east does inhibit -NAO, I'm sure. The combo together is lethal if you're hoping for big blocking. https://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/sites/14/2015/01/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf

Yes. The keystone paper you're looking for is here: Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the following year’s El Niño | Nature Geoscience Made a note of it last year, but at that point it looked initially like a moderate event was most likely. wxchris on X: "The recent record/near record -IOD is collapsing. Warm water is sloshing east towards the WPac, putting the fully mature Nina on borrowed time. Expect whiplash. https://t.co/rZb3PjimBU" / X

The weeklies keep coming in lower than my guesses as Nino 3.4 came in at only +1.4 for last week vs my +1.5 guess. This is surprisingly low when considering that it is OISST based. It is for the prior week averaged out, but still +1.4 looks low when comparing to this relative OISST graph. The avg of last week, the last 7 dots on the image below, is actually ~+1.6!

There’s a reason why he could never keep a Met job lol

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the depression is becoming better organized, with the low-level circulation getting better defined and increased convective banding near the center. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations show that this has not yet resulted in strengthening. The maximum 925-mb flight-level winds reported by the aircraft so far is 34 kt, and the central pressure is near 1007 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The center of the depression seems to have reformed a little to the south during the past several hours. However, the overall motion is 310/3 kt. There is little change in the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone remains sandwiched between two mid-level ridges, one to its northwest centered over the Rockies and one to its southeast centered near the Bahamas. Over time, the ridge over the Rockies is expected to become the dominant steering feature as a longwave trough moves into the northeastern United States. This should result in the depression turning to the west-northwest and eventually west at a continued slow forward speed. The new forecast track brings the center near southeastern Louisiana in about 60 h and then reaches southeastern Texas by 120 h. The new forecast track is a little south of the previous track based partly on the current position and the possibility that the forecast northeasterly shear may help steer the center a little more southward. The depression is experiencing moderate northeasterly shear, and these conditions should continue for another 24-30 h. It is likely that there will be convective bursts near and south of the center during this time, and these should help intensify the cyclone to a tropical storm. After about 30 h, the northeasterly shear is forecast to increase, and the global models suggest it will get strong enough to destroy the vertical integrity of the cyclone. This should halt intensification and then cause some weakening. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 to 48 h, and this is in the upper portion of the intensity guidance envelope. The forecast also calls for the system to survive through 120 h. However, it could dissipate between 72-120 h, especially if it tracks north of the current forecast and has more land interaction. It should be noted that the aforementioned shear is likely to give the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the bulk of the rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur to the south of the center. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana beginning late tonight into Tuesday. 2. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Alabama, Mississippi, and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm surge is possible. 3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for portions of that area later today or Tuesday. 4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 28.5N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 28.6N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 29.2N 87.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 29.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 29.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 29.5N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1200Z 29.4N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 25/1200Z 29.3N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

Had a low of 54. Refreshing

Yeah, the August average for the 2020s has been 10 days reaching 90°. We’ll have to see where the main ridge sets up and the what the wettest areas are. One of the warmest June 1st to July 16th periods along the East Coast. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 1 2 8 15 10 2 0 35 2026 2 4 8 6 M M M 20 2025 0 0 10 20 8 1 0 39 2024 0 1 11 14 7 0 0 33 2023 2 1 1 14 5 6 0 29 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31

Thanks, Don. It’s very warm there, no doubt, indicative of a strong Nino. I prefer to compare the relative weeklies for the best apples to apples comparison to the strength of past events due to the GW effect on tropical oceans skewing the straight ENSO anomalies higher in more recent years: For the week centered on 7/15/26, the relative region 1+2 anomaly was at +2.8, a rise from the +2.6 of the prior week and the highest yet for this event. How does +2.8 compare to past events back to 1982 in mid July? 2023: +2.8 2015: +2.3 1997: +3.7 1982: +0.5 So, going back to 1982, 2026’s +2.8 is tied with 2023 for 2nd warmest anomaly in mid-July on a relative basis with 1997 being the warmest: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Lots of low dew periods since May. That’s really what most care about.

we survived the cold of 7/20..whew

And its already 77. I must have slept through the coldest portion of 7/20 in my lifetime

After 0z and 6z, I thought maybe the NAM broke the 2026 streak of looking like shit before our storm days. Then 12z ran. The streak lives!

Alot depends on how the whole thing evolves. If the late AM/early aftn wave is more significant the evening won't be as bad. Thats evident on most of the high res models too. HRRR has a stronger early wave, high res GFS/RRFS have mostly just a late one. Instability looks more impressive in the evening than the Saturday event and less in the early wave/warm front than Saturday.

Correct, Adam. 1982-3 bimonthlies peaked at +2.9. Get this, that peak wasn’t til April-May of 1983. Although April-May is very late even for the MEI peak, it does sometimes peak sig. later than the 3.4 SST anomaly peak. Why? My guess is atmospheric lag vs SSTa peaks since MEI has an atmospheric portion. There’s nothing better to illustrate atmospheric lag than to look at SOI lows for strong Nino events per the monthlies: Event……..SOI low….SSTa peak…Lag (months) 1982-3……Feb ‘83…….Dec ‘82……..2 1991-2…….Jan ‘92…….Jan ‘92…….0 1997-8……Mar ‘98……..Nov ‘97…..4 2009-10….Feb ‘10………Dec ‘09….2 2015-6…...Jan ‘16………Nov ‘15…..2 2023-4…..Feb ‘24………Dec ‘23….2 So, avg lag from SSTa high to SOI low for these 6 strong events was 2 months. MEI peaked late in 1982-3, 1997-8, and 2009-10 (although it didn’t in 2015-6 and 2023-4). https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

Low was 57.5F this morning! Currently 77F with a 57 dew.

Oh yeah, we don't disagree there. Would need to see the center stay south and wrap convection to put anything other than a minor/modest ceiling on the table.

That wasn’t a good forecast either for what verified. Still much too cool from upper Midwest into the Northeast. You seem to be taking my model criticism personally in some regard by the tone of your responses. It isn’t my intention to put you on the defensive in any way. It would be great if all the seasonal model forecasts were as good as the JMA for your best winter in 2013-2014. https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/data/news/tccnews34.pdf https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php

Shear is definitely evident in IR satellite, but unlike yesterday we are seeing more persistent convection near the center with pressure falling and flight level winds going up as a result. The shear has picked up substantially, which will make it very hard for the kind of vortex alignment necessary for a faster pace of intensification. And dry air is still an issue, though the persistent convection has helped some in mixing it out. Beating an old drum, but obviously land interaction will be key to future prospects, and there's still a split between legacy models and AI ensembles. The superensemble of legacy GFS/Euro still show a more northern track that takes this into the central Gulf coast. This is certainly a reasonable outcome if TD2 continues on a NNW heading. The AI ensembles however continue to show the risk that this gets "suppressed" a bit, and skirts the Louisiana coastline. The northerly shear probably keeps some of the worst weather off the coast, but there could still be plenty of impacts in rainfall and wind with banding. The higher end solutions seem to be off the table, but modest intensification still seems to be a reasonable expectation provided there are no sudden changes in the organization of the center.

“Coldest 7/20 of our lives” Chilly, but what are we doing here?

Beer I hate when he posts these…lots of short record periods or shoddy datasets at many of these sites. That’s not a record for MHT either.

58.5 this morning. Perfect day. Glad I’m off heading to Long Beach boardwalk

Plenty of lows in the 50's this morning with the lowest being 50.3 degrees at the Warwick DEOS station. Today will be the 10th below average temperature day over the last 15 days. We should continue to see below average temperatures for what is, on average, our warmest week of the year for the rest of this new work week. A beautiful day today with some ridge locations remaining just below 80 degrees. Rain chances increase toward tomorrow morning with the general forecast being for between 3/4 and an inch of rain for most spots with showers lasting till Wednesday AM. We dry out and stay cool on Thursday with highs only in the mid 70's - almost 10 degrees below normal levels for late July.