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How much ice for metro ATL? An inch?

In Greenville, SC....this is a big Booooooo

bx and rjay will drive by when they can, but there’s not many of us left who can or will

I knew the northern stream would find a way to kick us in the nads again

And northern Middle TN as well. The southern adjustment gives me some added confidence.

2018 all over again. Wake county was 8-10 inched on north end and nothing on south end

that only happens when we're in the bullseye....when the system is progged south of us there's no such thing as nw trend

That was mostly sleet and there is a chance this could be mostly sleet though I do think for DFW this is looking like a bit of freezing rain Friday shifting towards sleet by late Friday. By Saturday afternoon and into Sunday DFW should be mostly snow.

true

12:1 is a good first guess for ratios IMO. Interior, mountainous regions get great ratios because they get great lift combined with cold. High ratio snow along the coastal plain is usually confined to snow squalls and heavy banding. Long-duration light-moderate snow might not coincide with enough lift in the snowgrowth zone to get higher ratios. Locking in 15:1 could lead to disappointment.

Still about 4 days out from depicted start of snow. That's an eternity when you have to deal with a northern stream feature interacting with a sw feature and a pv. Really need that sw to phase in better with the ns dropping down, and we know how that always seems to go. Did notice that HP was weaker and further north as the system rolled east on the euro. That's really what 'saved' us, and offset the weaker phasing and allowed the precip to still come further north. No feeling in my gut on this one. I can absolutely see the phasing falling apart leading to a 12zgfs-esque solution. All it takes would be the ns to speed up and the sw to hang back....that seems to be a common scenario over the last several winters, (failed phasing with a quicker ns). Still, the option for something bigger is definitely on the table too, especially with the temps during the snowfall leading to high ratios. I think one fail option we can take off the table...wtod Either way, this type of system is fun to track on the modeling.

Next window of opportunity?

Yea ice storms are garbage. Zero interest in them. I can go ice skating if I desire ice lol.

Perhaps it's time to ask a couple of folks to help you out during big events?

Hold? Dude that's better!

I might be wrong, but you strike me as someone who would complain about winning the lottery because of all the taxes you would have to pay on the winnings.

Saw this elsewhere but looks like sounding flights are planned

At least 9 states will have major distribution problems and possibly generation/transmission issues due to loss of load. Your looking at the possibility of over a million customers off-line for an extended period in frigid conditions.

And basically that has to do with how that Baja low rejects, right? (Nervous about that part, lol)

Median outcome pretty sexy. Essentially a hold from 06z.

The totals for metro Atlanta are absolutely bonkers. They gotta pray this is overdone at this point

Don’t think it’ll be Noon Saturday unless you’re outside this area

I'm sure it would. The problem is would they bother to measure it?

Aka the most important signal for us northern tier folks.

Getting my hopes up way too soon starting….NOW