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My pointing out a particular repeating pattern over time with our storm tracks leading to less snow is more about pattern recognition on my part. I use it in real time to point out that the models have been too snowy beyond 5 days. This has lead to the famous modeled snowstorm always being a week a way. Which is due to the models underestimating the influence of the Pacific Jet longer range. Adding extra warmth to the system in multiple locations causes shifts in the storm tracks. So we need to acknowledge this as a forecast aid.

A reminder that adjustments to temperatures in the US, 6% of the world, don't matter. https://x.com/RARohde/status/1779044943501152416

Shewchuk is telling us something we already know: raw COOP data in the US is biased. We've known this for decades. Deniers have been making the same complaint for decades; but they haven't provided a single document in a scientific forum to back up their claims. As we have found out in Chester County, NOAA's adjustments are completely justified. Stations moved, sensors/shelters ran warm, etc. Every time we checked, the raw data at nearby stations verified the adjustment. At this point you might as well complain that the sky is blue or the world is flat.

You are spouting conspiracy theory mumbo jumbo. The adjustments all come from the raw data. The two big moves are by far the biggest adjustments in Chester County. Completely justified as we have seen. Let's go through the adjustments in detail. The West Chester move in 1970 triggers large adjustments before the move. 70+ years of large warm adjustments that are completely justified in the raw data. The other west Chester adjustments are relatively minor. Not that when the West Chester adjustment is less than 2F in the pre-move period it is a cooling adjustment relative to the warm town baseline. Coatesville1sw is similar to Coatesville with the 1946-47 moves being the main adjustment. Again completely justified. Coatesville 2W gets a small cooling adjustment. Phoenixville gets a warm adjustment in the 1930-1950s period. Again completely justified. Other than that the adjustments are minor. Like Coatesville 2W, Devault gets a warming adjustment. The bottom-line is that the major Chesco Coop adjustments are completely justified. The other Chesco adjustments don't impact the long-term climate trend as they are: smaller, shorter duration, and go both ways. You have complained for over a year about a scientific method you don't understand. During that time you haven't provided any evidence to back up your claims. On the contrary, the County adjustments that we have looked at are all completely justified by the raw data. Coatesville and West did have major cooling moves. Phoenixville did run warm in the 1930-50s. Your complaint boils down to the fact that you don't like the answer. What about this adjustment, What about that adjustment. That doesn't move the needle. You need to look at the raw data that triggered the adjustment. Telling us that there adjustments that you don't like doesn't move the needle. Science isn't going to change because you don't like the answer.

Awesome

Is it too much to ask to string some steiny days together ? This doesn't look to be the week. Key Messages: * Scattered showers and cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday * Clearing Wednesday into Thursday with highs reaching the low to mid 80s. And then of course for the weekend: "Unsettled conditions return heading into the weekend, bringing more chances for showers."

*

Yep. The HRRR depicts that pretty well.

Looks like it will vanish as it moves east. Shocker? Lol

67/65. Moist.

The two for one of smoke and fog this morning made outside my place look like Silent Hill

I guess you all didn’t get the rains like we did out this way? I am camping with my daughter’s Girl Scout troop, in town, and we got it while we were setting around 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. Cooled the temps off perfectly and made tent camping palatable.

humidicious out.. we got 0.86 yesterday, unfortunately peak rate was 2.27 in/hr.. the new backflow valve we had installed last fall seems to seep a bit, resulting in an unplanned test of the home monitoring system (happened last saturday as well while we were on the road up from FL). Nothing major, just water in the basment shower pan.. Guess I'll be talking to the plumber next week.. damn ancient city sewer systems..

Some crazy thunder last night and some rain but I don't think there was a ton. Still didn't expect anything. Kevin nailed the humidity though which was miserable all day and all night and still lingers a bit this morning.

DCA: 100 NYC: 97 BOS: 99 ORD: 98 ATL: 100 IAH: 105 DEN: 102 PHX: 119 SEA: 95

Gnarly looking radar to our west

Some good flashes and thunder here at Pit2 last night around 7:30-8:30. Not sure how much rain we got then, but it was torrential.

71/69 at 4am. What a special morning...

or a heat burst from nearby thunderstorm? (I saw mention of storms in parts of region, wasn't following very closely today) ... those heat bursts usually happen towards end of a storm's life cycle though.

Curalis

Whatever happened to Oklahoma threads in the South Region forum?

Good lightning show earlier tonight. 0.23” in the bucket, maybe get a little more as it’s still raining. Hot one today, 92 and very humid

I got a warned cell that turned into a grand total of .02”

We are heading back to legendary winters in the Mid Atlantic. Great. Solar. Minimum. Little Ice Age reprise by 2030. I am gonna move to Panama. Or maybe even The Amazonian Basin. Plenty of food in the jungle, and nice warm year round. I love summer. I'd go chase river monsters like Jeremy Wade! Or swim with piranhas! Heard its a rush! I am so damned BORED, I'd probably experiment by stickin my FOOT in a small pool full of rapacious piranhas. Hey, I got lightning fast reflexes! I'd SCHOOL Neo in The Matrix of river monsters. Damn I am so fuckin BORED!