All Activity

Obviously there are more drivers than ENSO and it does get too much attention at times. He is correct about the strong -IOD, ENSO and the West PAC warm pool being much stronger this year. IMO the real elephant in the room for this winter is the Category 5 “beyond extreme” marine heatwave ongoing off the coast of China that I posted about earlier today. I don’t think that is getting near enough attention

Siberian HP is strengthening, as it always does in Fall with decrease in sun angle and efficient radiational cooling in a hyper continental climate. Probably a bit earlier this year.

Yea wind was on and off after midnight so we didn’t drop much. Been the story lately

Don’t love the moist but I suppose we need it. Happy to ride the mild train as long as the Pacific keeps chugging along. .

If you look at the last 6 weeks of SSTA's at the link below, Enso 3.4 this year has averaged -.3C while last year's same 6 weeks come out to -.416C. It's a little cooler this year, sure. But I'd be a little more cautious about attributing anything to that difference at this point imho. Other portions of the equatorial Pacific over the period are similar in their differences for the most part too. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Awesome pics as usual. The colors really started to pop the last couple of days.

Extreme cold for this time of year in Siberia. Yesterday it broke records.

I didn't make a VT trip this fall knowing the drought would kill the foliage overall. I decided to stay closer to home and visit the NC High Country which needs it a year after Helene: I do hope for a snow filled winter up there so I can get in a visit and maybe some runs on the slopes.

It was great to see the NC High Country back where it should be this time of year. The communities were definitely seeing the tourists too! I captured these images of the foliage on 10/17:

Trends continue with a reduction in precip. No surprise here, as the main rain area is well North of the forum.

I absolutely love Fall. Took that pic yesterday pn an impromptu walk in the park. I dont mind the leaf cleanup in the crisp chilly air at all. I'll do that 100x rather than cut grass on a humid July day.

I was in Plymouth, NH today which is one town north of where I live. I decided to fly the drone over the Pemigewasset River. The river is basically just stagnant bodies of water. I could not see any flow. The first picture is where the river normally floods. Amazing drought. Finally, things look to change. I'm glad we will get some water into the system before the surface freezes. Also, there has been no real foliage season to speak of.

Sipping an Ardbeg Wee Beastie 5 yr old single malt Scotch whiskey before going out with the blower to dispense with the first round of leaves. It's Fall for real.

It’s been stuck in hyperdrive for the better part of a decade now. Any insights on how long things like this usually last?

Foliage is over 50% changed out this way; the town is filling up with those looking to get the fall vibes.

I think it's way to soon to be giving up on winter currently. The models cannot even get past 5 days correct let alone the next several months correct. We have a weak pv currently and the Eurasian snow cover is currently looking really good. I'm an optimist though this winter so we will see but I like our chances.

First freezes soon?

The longer range hi-res guidance is adverting a Narrow Cold-Frontal Rain Band (NCRFB) like feature for Sunday evening. This makes sense given the high shear / low (no?) instability. If we can't get proper severe, at least a NCRFB is "cool" meteorologically.

Elephants, Orangutans and some other animals can also prognosticate doom. Elephants literally headed for the hills when the Indonesian tsunami approached while humans were mindlessly sunning themselves on the beach. Many animals can detect earthquakes before they happen, a notable example were the orangutans at the National Zoo before the 5.8 earthquake in August 2011.

I'm still trying to figure it out, lol

Kevin, 50s on your bday is climo. However it’s the flavor that makes it feel warm. Unending blah but to be fair summer is over, ac is definitely done and the heat occasionally kicks on especially overnight. There have been a few ensemble runs (gefs mainly) that have hinted at a dateline ridge developing. That would be in time for some to be dumbfounded.

Sneaky run at 80 tomorrow east of the river.