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Looks like north and eastern areas

I'm not on the beach. I have missed all those blizzards too- but I usually manage to get a moderate(6-10")event at least.

Light rain and smoky skies moved in just in time for the meteor shower.

0.13"

its August 12 and we’re making our own digital snow we are actually going crazy

Maybe if ya all weren’t dicks to the poor guy who was just trying to post current data, he wouldn’t have left thinking everyone hated him. But Fuck It, right. Ya all won a stupid battle. Congrats on making yourselves feel better.

I maintain that SVR-Considerable with Tor Possible wording would have sufficed. 65 mph EF-0 is only 5 mph over base SVR. I don't believe there was any threat beyond a QLCS spinup of what we saw, and that took the open water and maybe a boundary to make it happen.

Yes. There are numerous mesoscale boundaries at play in Maryland. Monday's setup also had additional difficulties from the AM convection laying down race tracks right over Baltimore. The TBWI and TADW picked up on those which were being overshot by Dover and Sterling radars.

The video from Hopkins Bayview and the TBWI radar was rather convincing. QLCS environment + bay/harbor boundary was a perfect setup for spin ups.

Waiting on LWX to hoist the watches. Not sure what they're waiting on at this point. Model guidance is near perfect!

I’ve seen some shit in Florida that we’ll never see here, but that is fucking amazing!!!

There was an SCN that went out about it last year and there was no indication in there that there was going to be a replacement or complementary service. The SCN went put at about the same time as other things which were curtailing the access / dissemination of climate information.

That's awesome. Definitely something worth posting from UMD Science on the socials.

You were in Bermuda but I posted if it were I would have murdered @Mount Joy Snowman in his sleep.

Yup. This is a Nino. No beach blizzards allowed.

Above normal temperatures will persist through Friday. Highs will generally top out in the middle and upper 80s. Cooler air will move into the region to close of the week. As a result, the weekend ad early next week will likely see highs mainly in the lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was +1.76 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.776 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.5° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Let cape mix for once, bring that death band a bit west

These are different storm cells from yesterday (Aug 11th) as seen from Bismarck ND and also Rapid City SD. You don't see the radar estimated 4" hail a lot

Today's Highs: PHL: 90 BLM: 89 EWR: 88 New Brnswck: 88 LGA: 87 TEB: 86 ACY: 86 ISP: 85 JFK: 85 TTN: 85 NYC: 84

Some folks like to tell me that while the raw high temperatures may not have warmed significantly a true tell tale sign of our warming climate is the warming of overnight low temperatures...So I went back and did a statistical analysis to see if between 1890 and 2025 we saw statistically warming of overnight lows and daytime highs along with the overall average temperatures. The big finding which may surprise is to find that in fact there has been no significant warming at all of overnight lows and actually slight cooling!!! We used both a pure raw all station mean which is just the raw untouched data and an anomaly composite which while still raw data, treats each individual station referenced to its own baseline so the changing station roster and locations can't fabricate some false trend. Raw all-station mean (the literal, unadjusted county average): none of the three are statistically significant. Average high: +0.055 °F/decade, p = 0.073 — warming, but just short of significance (borderline). Average low: +0.022 °F/decade, p = 0.49 — not significant. Overall average: +0.039 °F/decade, p = 0.15 — not significant. So by the pure raw mean, there's no statistically significant warming or cooling in any of the three over 1890–2025 — a slight (non-significant) warming lean in all three. Anomaly composite (still raw data, but each station referenced to its own baseline so the changing station roster can't fabricate a trend): two of the three are significant, and they point in opposite directions. Average high: +0.094 °F/decade, p = 0.003 — significant warming. Average low: −0.075 °F/decade, p = 0.008 — significant cooling. Overall average: +0.010 °F/decade, p = 0.72 — not significant (the high and low cancel out). The one thing both methods agree on firmly: the overall average temperature shows no statistically significant trend either way across the 135 years across Chester County from 1890-2025. Below are some charts that highlight all of the above.

This one was a supercell out east of Pine Bluffs, WY (in Nebraska) with brief tornado reported

89’d today. Dew point of 57 has it feeling not bad outside. Send rain please.