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The SOI never went strong during the 23-24 Strong Nino. Here's the monthly data: 2023 4 -1.20 2023 5 -15.26 2023 6 -3.19 2023 7 -3.32 2023 8 -10.85 2023 9 -13.87 2023 10 -6.63 2023 11 -8.38 2023 12 -3.78 2024 1 3.96 2024 2 -15.55 2024 3 -0.35 From 2020-early 2023 we had 34-straight months of +SOI.... so this decade there has been a severe +SOI tendency compared to other ENSO variables. Oct 2025 is likely going to make the 15th straight month of +SOI, although none of those months have gone over +10.. it's been consistently weak Nina/negative-Neutral for 2 years now... and La Nina-like SOI for 5+ years, with a little blip to slightly negative during the 23-24 Nino.

Yea that lake water isn’t coming back. Maybe for the best. Let nature be nature

Blydenburgh County Park in Smithtown Friday afternoon

Blydenburgh was beautiful Friday afternoon. It's wild watching how fast the brush has taken over the lake bed.

It would not surprise me if it dies when it enters phase 7

Some nice color out in some of the county parks around here. The lower lying swampy areas have some really nice color, such as Caleb Smith state park and blydeburgh county park

UVA got super lucky today.

Lol Terps. Bruh this year is a different kind of losing...talent to win but yet they don't. Hat trick for MD sports just got a little more likely!

I'm always kind of surprised at you saying the WPO was very positive last Winter, are you referring to an actual index number? The 500mb looks neutral to slightly negative WPO.. Japan had a cold Winter

Finally got below freezing, first of the season.

DC hit 82 in February

Wasn't this the March that featured the intense Greenland block that retrograded and caused extreme cold and snow ( as you mentioned.) I recall many school closings that March.

Don, I want to make sure I’m following you correctly. You’re saying the errors increase at depth but that the at depth data is still reliable?

I think the only difference between this year and last year is 2nd year La Nina's have a little more Winter -PNA than the first year, and 2nd year -PDO's, when they don't correlate the first year, correlate the 2nd year at +1.24x. But La Nina is struggling right now.. it's starting to look like at the surface it won't make the 5 consecutive ONI month criteria. Subsurface is also weak right now.. barely -1 to -2 subsurface anomalies, and the SOI is weakly hanging around +5. Border line weak-Nina/negative-Neutral. Also last Summer we had a strong 4-corners High pressure.. that rolled forward to a pretty cold composite for the eastern 2/3 of the US for December and January (+PNA).. the SW, US High pressure wasn't as strong this Summer. However, 9 of the last 14 months have been +PNA [CPC], despite negative-ENSO. The Aleutian ridge hasn't yet gone back to levels it was before the 23-24 Strong Nino fwiw. It would surprise me if we saw a strong/persistent Aleutian ridge this cold season. It seems like it would have to kind of come out of nowhere.

Yeah there are a ton of variables in the global atmosphere and a lot of things going on currently. I think ill wait and see how things evolve from mid October through the end of the year. I do know the sentiment about this winter is very negative.

Lots of lightning and crashing thunder with the line coming through. Picked up a quick 0.64" which brings us to 0.92" for the day so far. EDIT: Now 1.19" for the day. EDIT2: 1.72"

Im not familiar with the towns, but 287 north of route 80 was beautiful on Thursday driving to Pearl River, NY. Im sure some of the state parks in NNJ are probably popping nicely.

It says he did save the data, and to send him a PM.

Reply to him instead of here. No point in doing it here instead of the source. You obviously follow him. I see 6 comments and none you. If you post his 93k follows will see it instead of the 10 people here that read this thread.

Exactly. I don't see it being as bad as his outcome turned out. I like Don but, he's heavy into Global warming and I think he incorporates that a bit much. If Pensacola can get a record Snowstorm we can still get abundant Snowfall Winter's.

I read that tweet this morning and was wondering how long it would take you to embed it here La Niña is very comparable to last year...I feel like he is overstating the importance of the -IOD....we have had some incredible winters with a -IOD....it's not prohibitive in-and-of-Itself. The WPO was extremely positive last year and MY money is on LESS of an anomaly this year, but we shall see. The way I see it is that La Niña is extremely comparable to last year in terms of intensity, but more east-based. The west Pacific is also very comparable. JAS RONI is .63...JAS 2024 RONI was also .63. September 2024 WPO: 1.38 September 2025 WPO: 1.22

May as well eat Knowles' buyout and can his ass tomorrow. Loss is 100% on him.

Oh yeah I've read the board and it does seem very bleak. Maybe my blinders are on but im trying not to hard to complicate this winter. And after last winter with the crazy long cold stretch in January and the record breaking snow along the gulf that no one had predicted nor believed, im hedging on something as variable as that or could be near that. We are in different times using analog years and rolling things into the future in my opinion. We will see what happens but I'm still very positive on this winter around here.

Welp. I was wrong. Tough game to lose after leading throughout.