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We got smacked again tonight by a complex of storms that dumped another inch of rain on Buda. Now we are up to 22 inches on the year. Normal is 30 inches for the entire year. We are just stackin 'em, rackin' em and packin' em every time we turn around west of the Mississippi! With another disturbance forming in the Gulf of Mexico, and a Brobdingnagian El Nino intensifying, I think this summer could end up being like 2021, 2014 and 2015 and 2007.

I'm really looking forward to 8 weeks of posts arguing if it will be 85F or 88F. It's summertime, let's enjoy it!

Great, nice way to kick off the summer season. No prolonged big heat, but enough short burst big warmth to get the vibe rollin'.

Just a perfect early summer day. Days like this right through June would be alright with me

Lower anomalies in 3/1+2 than 3.4/4. The bigger/smaller the differential, the stronger/weaker the Modoki.

^Nice cold pool SE of New Foundland developing. Warming in the Davis Strait too and south of Greenland. There is SSTA correlation there May-Sept with following Winter NAO, that's pretty high. The current SSTA setup would favor more -NAO conditions in the Winter. Let's see if it holds going forward.

It was beautiful flying out of BTV this afternoon.

Can we please keep this weather for the rest of the..... century? Highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows in the low to mid 50s. It's just perfect.

Forecast few points look fantastic for the next several days, not getting out of the 50s.

Well for starters I feel we are not easily getting rid of the -PDO state we will need to watch how this evolves into the end of summer. Around now through August has been the timeframe we have seen the -PDO dip hard over the last 2-3 years. I do believe if we can maintain where we are now we stand a chance at having a +PDO (weak) spike as we go into winter. As for the ENSO state I have been very leery as far as overall strength of this event but currently it looks like a strong Nino is well supported, super not out of the question but I'm not sold on it yet. The -PDO will fight back on that potential and I personally can't quite place it but something feels a little off for super chances. I could be wrong with that and that is fine, a few tenths of a degree anomaly between strong to super is not going to make the world of difference on the overall effects we see come fall/winter over the Conus. Placement of ENSO forcing is the big one that needs to be watched with the second being to overall strength of the event, if we have further west VP and anomalies compared to past super events this becomes a different outcome for the forcing come winter. I would also like to really see the uptick in tropical activity that tends to take place from El Nino events through much of the Pacific. If the central Pacific tends to have more of the storms this season versus EPAC we are on the path probably to a more Modoki style Nino. The waters off Baja have cooled quite a bit over the last few months this is that kick from the -PDO still in play as well as the cooler waters around Alaska. As Bluewave states over and over, ad infinitum, the warm pool east of Japan is certainly still playing a role in how things progress and even much of the South Pacific is still very warm. In some ways we are starting to see some dual warm regions take place which is fascinating to see. You have competing factors still at play in the subtropics and mid latitudes that certainly will affect the outcome of this event. It still amazes me even with the warming of the central and EPAC tropical waters that MJO just halts at 7 and pushes to COD. Lastly the Atlantic... Are we about to witness a reversal in the AMO? We also don't have the classic Atlantic La Nina taking place yet through the tropics this will also be something to monitor coming up. If folks can make a forecast this far out and know almost close to what will happen come winter good on you but to me there are still many things that show a lot of uncertainty still exists. If I had to guess at an anomaly standpoint for this event we end up fairly similar in threshold to the 23-24 event. Nothing else other than the anomaly threshold.

Cansips was the only seasonal model showing any BN temps in the GL/east/NE. In that respect, it was, as you stated, the best in at least those areas. It was similar in 24/25 with a cooler forecast than other models. The Cfs2 and Euro have been boiler plate AN across the country the last 2 years. Speaking for myself, I don't care about the rest of the country or any other part of the world, fry or freeze.

The low dews are leading to spectacular mornings and evenings. While it feels great, no humidity means no rain. This is the second time in five weeks we've gone two weeks without rain.

Spectacular evening out there now. Crisp air and a stellar sunset. Could take a few more of these...

Therein lies the rub, there's been ample opportunities for that to break down these last 3 years but when that opportunity arises the nw flow abruptly injects steroids or if it is beaten back it's only fleeting and it comes roaring back in as little as a few days. A niño should be able to overcome that but like in 2023 we're instead dealing with winter style futility until we're well past the summer solstice.

So does a Modoki just have to have lower anomalies in 3 and 1+2 than in 3.4 and 4 or does 1+2 need to be negative? I feel like that’s the same scenario just opposite.

I’d say no based on past strong+ El Niño anomalies. Nino 4 has been at a minimum +0.5C. The idea is that 3.4 and 4 anomalies are lower than 3 and 1+2 as opposed to needing to be ~0.

79 for the high today.

On the May update, the Euro had Nino 4 getting to 2-2.5C above the 30-year mean in December. That's a huge body of water, and far less volatile than the more eastern areas of the Tropical Pacific. The correlation isn't super strong - but with a very extreme reading, of say 30.5C+ or warmer - never achieved on record - you have to assume we get close to the long-term trend. Your 29.5C+ Decembers are 1994, 2006 (both just under but over 29.4), 2009, 2015, 2018, 2023. Basically dead on to the correlation. Also consistent with Decembers following my hottest 10 Marches of the past 100 years. I'd go 2-4 degrees warmer in the warmer areas and 1-2 degrees colder in the white areas based on the extremity forecast for December.

Awww. I love Chuck.

What are your latest thoughts? You’re definitely one of the least biased and more knowledgeable posters here. Always appreciate you giving your thoughts

Down to 47 here. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Temp down to 53 baby!

There was just some very light rain today (a T). It was windy from the E as cooler, drier air was coming in. With temps down to the mid 70s, the steady breeze, and dewpoints in the mid 50s, it easily felt good enough to walk at the park for the first time in nearly 2 weeks despite a few rain drops.

Persistent NW flow with breaks of southeast ridging are not a good recipe for rain in these parts. The NW flow is the biggest culprit. It's why we've had these incredible spells of nice weather this time of year, but it's a detriment to rain chances due to increased dry air aloft and relevant down sloping potential when winds shift westerly. Need more persistent southwest flow with moisture advection. Haven't gotten into that yet.

A true east based Nino should have near zero or negative anomalies in Nino 4 correct? I’ll believe that when I see it. I believe Nino 4 had a big drop off in June 1997. Let’s see if that happens this year.