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Verification scores coming in for ai-gfs and its ensembles, ai is doing better than their dynamic counterparts. But that’s not saying much. I’d say its middle of the pack on par with gefs/geps, with euro leading the pack.

Snowier across the board? .

New RAP

18z gfs ai says “you think tomorrow is going to be hard to watch you ain’t seen nothing yet”

Wral just showed their Barron model and it is much snowier. They said it performed well with the last system. .

There outer loop I-295 was just completed so there’s that.

Nice snow shower out here right now. Nickel to quarter size flakes.

Check please!

Wait, what? And he called that not pretty???

If that verifies then that’s not too bad; I was -9F here yesterday so as cold as it is now

Same. Maybe the record breaking 500mb low is causing havoc on the models?

It’s been a while since we needed a storm thread for a storm that could hit a lot of us! I guess this is a pre-storm obs. Cloudy and 43 lol

Only 25-35mph winds Saturday night into Sunday? I thought we were primes for 40-50mph+++? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I got in that as well. Some monster rates and looked really bad down from it on i 81 (should read Bays mtn)

My guess is that it will increase the likelihood that the next 1-2 weeks see generally colder than normal temperatures.

It's still 5-10".

I have the opposite problem. I have good returns but nothing falling.

I know the RAP sucks, but why not

I’ve never known less going into a snowstorm than I do today .

Figured

People could post their thoughts on eventual NYC totals here, especially if you edited the thread title to include it. Those predictions I mentioned are in the main forum, contest thread, from the dozen or so people who enter temperature forecast contests over there. I don't remember what I predicted but it was probably in the high 20s. I guess we don't need much more to reach that. The ongoing cold spell probably argues for a likely additional 10-15 inches but some analogues may have stayed snow-free despite the cold spell in prime climo period. On the other hand, it was very cold in the second half of January, 1888 and not much snow fell in February but then came the Blizzard of 1888 (March 11-13).

I'm in Lynchburg but this storm is making Richmond and Lynchburg work awfully hard to get 1-4 inches of pixie dust. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

How will the current, and predicted MJO phases factor in to short and medium term predictions?

For the SC peeps!

Currently, it looks like it’s off the coast of Charleston to me? Most of us east of 95 needed it closer to the coast, correct?