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This was the surface depiction for the January 2022 sleet bomb. This stayed all sleet and snow in the triad. Just goes to show what a strong surface high will do for you. It seems very unlikely that Raleigh and points N & W will have a changeover to ZR for any significant amount of time. The question is will it be a 4-6" sleet bomb or a historic snowstorm

Revive the dgex!

Most models have that piece of energy, but it's strung out and probably too warm for anything except rain or mix

If you ask I’m sure he caused to happen with his birds

I mean, I’m happy to travel and want to be part of this meeting, but I’m going to miss potentially the biggest snow in 6-10 years over my dead body

National Weather Service Nashville TN 1137 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1134 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 - High confidence in winter weather with travel impacts this weekend. Stay tuned for the latest. - Cold temperatures are expected to remain through early next week which will prolong impacts. - Scattered showers expected tomorrow/tomorrow night with precipitation remaining as rain. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1053 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 After a frigid start to the day, temperatures are climbing through the 20s this morning. High pressure is centered over the area but it will slowly move east this afternoon which will allow weak southerly flow to start. With that, temperatures will not be as cold tonight, but still expect lows in the 20s. A weak trough and associated surface low will approach on Wednesday dragging a weak surface front. Ahead of the front, the southerly winds will increase along with moisture. Models are showing medium to high chances of scattered showers starting Wednesday morning. The shower chances will linger into Wednesday night along the plateau. It looks like the precipitation will remain all liquid with this system. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1053 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Behind Wednesday`s system, temperatures will remain around normal for this time of year. Surface high pressure will slide eastward from the central plains and quickly move across the Ohio River Valley. Behind that, a reinforcing cold front will move into the area on Friday. This will set the stage for this weekend`s system. An upper level trough will be situated off the southern coast of California on Friday. Ahead of the trough, southwesterly flow will send anomalously high moisture through the southern plains and into the southeast. This will override the cold air that settles into our area on Friday. In addition, some of that energy is expected to eject out of the Baja region eastward on Saturday. There are questions regarding how much energy is ejected and if it phases with upper level energy coming out of Canada. Regardless, precipitation is likely to start as snow either Friday night or Saturday morning. The question is what happens after that. The model solutions that eject more energy out of the Baja develop a stronger inverted surface trough over the southeast and possibly reaching into our area. This would do two things. First, it would enhance QPF amounts and second, it would draw warm air northward which would bring ice and sleet into the picture. Right now, sleet and freezing rain chances are highest closer to the Tennessee/Alabama border but there is still a lot of variation in model solutions. So what are the key messages regarding this weekend? Bottom line... we have high confidence in winter weather with impacts this weekend. Go ahead and make preparations and don`t plan on traveling if you don`t need to. It is not a simple setup that gives us high confidence in snow or ice amounts. Yes, there are individual models that say a large portion of the area will receive a foot of snow. BUT, on the flip side, there are models that bring the warm air well into Middle Tennessee which would produce more freezing rain or sleet which would crush the hearts of snow lovers, but still produce significant impacts. Any precipitation that falls will likely stick around as the cold air will be entrenched into at least early next week. We`ll continue to monitor the forecast trends in the models, so stay tuned as there is still some time to figure this out. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue for the taf period. The low level jet will increase after 06z introducing a window for low level wind shear at BNA/CKV/MQY. Surface winds will increase mid to late Wednesday morning allowing for the LLWS to subside. Light scattered showers could impact the terminals starting from west to east Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 38 27 49 34 / 0 0 70 40 Clarksville 38 26 45 30 / 0 10 70 10 Crossville 33 21 47 34 / 0 0 50 60 Columbia 40 25 49 35 / 0 0 70 40 Cookeville 33 23 49 35 / 0 0 60 60 Jamestown 31 21 48 33 / 0 0 50 50 Lawrenceburg 39 25 50 37 / 0 0 70 50 Murfreesboro 38 23 50 36 / 0 0 60 50 Waverly 38 27 44 31 / 0 0 70 20 &&

Omg yes lol

I know it's the long range NAM but did anyone see the nice little thump the 18z showed for Friday?

No idea, and I don't care to know what they were talking about, or why.

Piss Cape off and extrapolate at will: WB 18Z 12K NAM at fantasy range.

I do not speak the name of that system anymore. Greeneville got nothing but slush and sleet when the rest of the county got 5-7''

I think you mean 18z an 6z (18z up next) and there’s much debate on how accurate that is. But your point about overreactions is valid lol

Rightfully so, still days away this is going to be a long week.

Jan 16, but we knew what you meant. That was actually pretty good up to my hood..but not to far north of me it cut off big time.

18z NAM says, I am going start a pep rally Friday morning, for the big game on Saturday. Like what the heck is the NAM thinking??

Not all of us , anymore

Poetry in motion...lol

Is this the time we actually want to be NAM’D

Obviously not maybe he ruined the forecast?

Just cause we waiting for legit models. 18z Nam is definitely pushing out the sw faster than 12z this run.

Yes! I said that a few days ago! .

NAM enters the chat. .

Friendly reminder 6z is usually full of shenanigans, let's keep the overreactions either way in check! .

Do you think they were just talking about the energy that you can see through 60 hrs...and comparing that to the GFS at the same point?

Lol you must be fun at parties.