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Who thinks these amounts are too high in PA down through VA ?

1.34” Need all of it. Well has been going dry after a couple showers…

Easy to see how - as others have said - Freshwater flooding is going to be the most impactful (costliest, deadliest) weather event related aspect of AGW. Probably already is.

I have to imagine there's some water level rising in the area PF described. Impressive if not.

Absolutely stunning Fall day today. Colors, blue sky, crisp air. Perfect October weather.

.64 here...can we cancel the burn ban now?

Western slope communities getting crushed.

There has been plenty of talk about the upgrade to EF-5 in Enderlin, North Dakota. (You may want to check out multiple videos on Youtube.) Here was, I believe, the closest time frame that I saved of that tornado (June 20th, 11:08PM central)

High of 73 . Low is our current temp of 50. Dew points stayed in the low 40's. Felt really nice outside.

I'm sure snowman will be embedding a tweet to this effect in the AM. scoop

1.10” wind max at home 18 mph. Meh

NG was way up at 3.55 on Oct 7th. It then plunged to the Oct 17th low of 2.89, a drop of 19%, on continued mild temperatures in the E US throughout the 2 week forecast period. This drop was caused by speculators selling to go flat or, in some cases, short. Then suddenly over this past weekend, when markets were closed, the models started cooling their late week 2 forecasts to near normal. Even though that’s not due to Canadian air, it’s still notably colder than the 2 weeks of mild that had been dialed in by the market on Friday. Thus as of Fri, the majority of spec traders had been short. Then this change to a less mild period late in week 2 meant a forecast of higher HDDs, which means newly progged higher NG usage than earlier progged. When the market opened last evening, there was a sharp gap up due to so many shorts running for the exits by buying to go flat. In addition, some of these specs decided to buy additional contracts to go long. In summary, the sharp price rise was due to a sharp increase in forecasted HDDs during the 2 week period rather than a forecast of very cold. Large changes in 2 week forecasts cause the largest price changes. Had the forecasts last week already had near normal in late week 2, prices on Friday would have been higher than they actually were and thus there wouldn’t have been today’s big rise.

sign me up for that h5 look in winter!

just imagine if there was no global warming

Its already 45 here. I think we get colder than last night and maybe have some frost in the morning

1.38" today. Praise Jah. 4.50" since 8/1 - enough for me to stop caring.

I ended up with .97”.

Same here and we've had a lot more rain. Even in the low spots my woods which rarely don't have water... nada

1.35” so far. The incredible part is that with 3” of rain in the past 2 weeks the river has barely risen. In spring we’d be at flood stage.

Things are getting serious again; you are posting WB maps!

At 1.15" here. The western slope communities east of BTV in Chittenden County have gotten crushed. They got trained by several narrow bands of heavy rainfall and now the ULL and upslope flow is cranking. There are spots over 3" and pounding rain east of BTV. They could do 4"+ in this event.

When it comes to money, those guys have itchy fingers for clicking on buy contracts. Frankly, I thought it was too early in the season for big nat gas usage even with BN temps. Guess I was wrong.

I suspect the area of forecast Snowfall to expand if the Pattern forecasted is realized. Looking like a good amount of moisture to work with. Great Lakes are very warm as well.

Yep. 34 here as well. 32 in Keokee in northern Lee County. 33 in Rose hill and Ewing Recorded.

The idea of a potentially wet October 30-November 3 period, perhaps +/- a few days to allow for timing differences at the current forecasting range, still looks to be on track as per the latest ECMWF weekly guidance. It should be noted that the CFSv2 is still not on board. On the other hand, the 12z ECMWF has insane rainfall amounts in the Middle Atlantic Region.