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I don't think that applies with this - CTP was calling for .75" - 1.00" during the day today. I got .21" which was more than most. Adding up quickly tonight though- currently sitting at .54" with moderate to heavy rain falling.

Another case of delayed but not denied with good rain tonight. If this was a Winter Storm, the punters would have been out in full force today, Lol! Patience is not a virtue on here.

Just came home and had to turn the heat on too.. :-/

Year: May forecast for ASO BoM/Euro, actual ASO, BoM miss vs Euro miss 2024: -0.1/-0.5 -0.2 +0.1 vs -0.3 2023: +2.5/+1.8 +1.6 +0.9 vs +0.2 2022: -0.4/-0.3 -1.0 +0.6 vs +0.7 2021: -0.5/0.0 -0.7 +0.2 vs +0.7 2020: -0.8/-0.3 -0.9 +0.1 vs +0.6 2019: +0.2/+0.7 +0.2 0.0 vs +0.5 2018: -0.2/+0.6 +0.5 -0.7 vs +0.1 2017: +0.2/+0.8. -0.4 +0.6 vs +1.2 2016: -0.8/-0.5 -0.6 -0.2 vs +0.1 2015: +1.6/+2.4 +2.2 -0.6 vs +0.2 2014: +0.8/+1.5 +0.2 +0.6 vs +1.3 2013: -0.8/-0.1 -0.3. -0.5 vs +0.2 ----------------------------------- 2012: +0.9/+0.8 +0.4 +0.5 vs +0.4 2011: +1.2/-0.2 -0.8 +2.0 vs +0.6 2010: -0.4/-0.9 -1.6 +1.2 vs +0.7 2009: +1.4/+0.8 +0.7 +0.7 vs +0.1 2008: +0.3/-0.2 -0.2 +0.5 vs 0.0 2007: -1.0/-0.8 -1.1 +0.1 vs +0.3 ----------------------------------- 2006: -1.0/+0.4 +0.3 -1.3 vs +0.1 2005: +1.0/+0.4 -0.1 +1.1 vs +0.5 2004: +0.7/+0.5 +0.6 +0.1 vs -0.1 2003: -0.9/-0.4 +0.2 -1.1 vs -0.6 2002: +1.0/+0.7 +0.9 +0.1 vs -0.2 ------------------------------------- Analysis: 1) 2023-4: -BOM had avg miss of +0.5 -Euro had ~no net bias; 2024 was 1st time May Euro was too cool since way back in 2004 (major outlier)! 2) 2013-22: - BoM had no net bias (average miss of 0.0) with 3 significantly too warm and 3 significantly too cold - Euro had a strong warm bias (average miss of +0.6) with 6 of 10 significantly too warm - BoM cooler than Euro 10 of 10 and significantly colder 8 of 10 years 3) 2007-12: - BoM had a strong warm bias (average miss of +0.8) with 5 of 6 significantly too warm - Euro had a moderate warm bias (average miss of +0.35) with 2 of 6 significantly too warm - BoM warmer than Euro 5 of 6 4) 2002-06: based on JAS, not ASO - BoM had a moderate cold bias (average miss of -0.4) with 2 of 5 significantly too cold and 1 of 5 significantly too warm - Euro had no net bias (avg miss ~0) —————— May 2025 predictions for ASO: BoM +0.4 Euro +0.1 Conclusions -Based just on these two, I’d lean to ~-0.2 ASO ONI. -But the two most accurate May forecasts overall for ASO have recently been the UKMET and JMA. UK has it way down to -0.9 and JMA has -0.5. Also, MetFrance tends to be too warm. It’s at 0.0. -So, based on all of these 5, I’d lean to ~-0.5 for ASO ONI as of now (vs -0.2 in 2024). That implies ASO RONI of ~-1.0.

OVC and 47/40°F what a spring so far.

Heat kicked on in my house lol

I just did a 2 mile walk with the dog and it is chilly. 48° with a light breeze.

Trade bait. To Jump start the next rebuild.

Worked outside in the rain yesterday and today. Chilly and wet but I love being outside in the elements for a living. Sorry if you don’t. Going to run numbers tonight but Minneapolis has probably seen 30%+ of its total precipitation for 2025 this last 72 hours.

...but we digress. Not the right thread for this debate. In other news: Observation in western Camden County NJ shows a continued aversion to predicted rainfall amounts. Under the trees is still dry aafter todays rain "shield" continued to wedge apart around us. Its beyond random and seems to continue proving the adage thsat "dry begets dry". Its uncanny in how many instances this year, blobs. bands or waves of rain have avoided, split apart or otherwise dissolved as this area has been approached. Its been going on for months, seemingly- and I'm betting that our deficit in this immediate area is significantly more than other areas in the D.V. Local landscapers report on dead or dying shrubs and ornamentals that are commonplace since late last summer. Seems too repeatable to be coincidence.

High of 57. Normal for the date is 75. 0.34” of rain so far with another batch ready to move in. Up to 6.30” for the month.

I think you need to be further n and w

Raining pretty good right now

Arnett supercell/tornado GoPro timelapse:

What type of heat source do you have?

925mb temps are close to 32 I wonder if the top of mount Wachusett could have some minor Accumulation I'll hike up early if there is

I 'm hoping you get confused between statistical cycles and overall trends. Like the stock market for instance. There are short term cycles up and down- but the overall actual statistics show a long term trend of upward. As it were- the overall warmth of our planet has also trended up, despite shorter term ups and downs ("cycles"). That is unequivocal, using the best data gathering tools that mankind has produced- and cannot be denied, unfortunately. I wish it were not so... Just being realistic- looking at objective evidence. No arm waving, or card carrying. I've been around the world- and seen the evidence that supports the long term trend- which is becoming evident to impartial data gathering mechanisms. The challange is how do we monitize solutions that buffer us from impending negative possibilities?

The GFS gets me down to 36 at 10pm tomorrow night.. If we can get a heavier burst I might even see some cat paws here

Yup, bedroom is 65. I prefer 70 with the ceiling fan on low. Heats going on.

Sugano! The one and only solid acquisition in the offseason. Credit given for that. Dude has an amazing splitter. They better extend him. The only legit starter they have right now lol.

That's nice in Fall and Winter, lol.

I need to see it one more time

Good luck!

I mean if you want the house at 60, be my guest lol. I'd rather deal with 85 in the house than 60, so heat is on until whenever it has to be.

It was even like that say 10 years ago when I played it. The holes by the water were cool. Short part three right on the water If I recall correctly.