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Caps on to 2nd round.

May already? Geeze. Looking forward to pollen-washing and drought denting rains.

Forecast Discussion Sunday May 25 2025 3:08PM EDT This has been a destructively wet month for much of the region with back-to-back coastal lows/ nor’easters dropping 3-7” and 5-10” of rain across the forecast area. Followed by rounds of, sometimes, training thunderstorms early this past week tracking from WSW to ENE dumping another 4 inches to up to a foot of rain with parts of Montgomery and Howard counties into Baltimore getting those 10-12”+ totals. Needless to say, the drought that has been affecting much of the region over the last year or so has come to an abrupt end. Now this afternoon, another very dangerous situation is in the process of unfolding. An MCS is currently moving across northern MD with severe thunderstorm warnings out for wind damage as well as severe hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for everyone north of Fredericksburg and Culpeper, VA and north of southern MD until 10pm local time tonight to account for these storms and training thunderstorms that will develop over the Greater DC metro. With 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and decent effective bulk-shear (~40kts) there could be embedded supercell structures that produce severe hail (1-2” in diameter). The magnitude of CAPE and moisture will cause localized strong to severe downburst winds with any embedded downbursts/microbursts as well. The main story this afternoon and evening, however, will be from flash flooding from the storms that will start training over the same areas for several hours. Have issued a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire forecast area until 4am. Decent low-level southerly flow will allow the storms that develop and back build to the south and west of the main MCS to be continuously reinvigorated as warm/moist/unstable air continuously lifts as it meets with the rain-cooled airmass to the north. Pwats of 1.75-2”+ will also make these storms efficient rainmakers. As a result, some areas could get several hours of 1-3”/hr rainfall rates leading to rainfall totals as high as 8-12” w/ locally higher amounts. A wave of energy will move along the front through the region this evening briefly allowing rain and storms to become more widespread. There could still be a few severe storms, mainly from the Potomac River and Route 50 southwards in MD where the airmass will be most unstable. As the wave moves to the east all the rain and storms will move out with it, exiting the Chesapeake Bay by 3am or so. However, the damage will be done by then. We will get another brief reprieve through midweek with slightly above average temps and humidity (High in the 80s w/ mid/upper 60s dewpoints) before, unfortunately, our attention turns to newly formed Tropical Storm Barry located in the western Caribbean Sea. Models are slowly starting to come into better agreement that Barry will move north and then northeast across Florida before interacting with a shortwave trough that may pull the storm back north into eastern North Carolina or into the Chesapeake Bay by late week bringing a threat of significant rains as well as gusty winds depending on how strong the tropical system is.

Thanks, just fixed it.

Isn't that the 12z Euro?

There is a bit of a signal for the highest amounts being north of here, but all 3 global ensemble means are 2"+ for most of this subforum, and 2 out of 3 have 2+" for the entire subforum. And it's spread out over multiple days instead of being some convective deluge that can't sink in. This looks a much-needed huge win for our region.

50/38 under mostly clear sky. I guess 30s might be possible by morning. I don’t have anything planted yet though.

75 total minutes 15H05M

Parents have had 4.8” rain in 2 hours.

GFS vastly prefers Pennsylvania for the 3"+ amounts.

The GFS has joined the wet models for next week

It'd be fun to get a FRIGID late freeze, and for like a week or two. Or at least 40's day/20's night. ALL bees, spiders, most everything insect just goes dormant and/or dies. Has that ever happened besides like 1816 or what not?

Maue in a long game to sane wash chemtrail lunatics on Twitter as thoughtful critics of climate mitigation techniques lol. Which job is he gunning for? NWS administrator?

Some AI estimates for May: Final April numbers will be posted tomorrow.

Haha, just saw a lightning bug! First time seeing one in April. Sighting was confirmed by multiple flashes, and my wife saw it as well. Now if we could only get some aurora borealis here!

@powderfreak wow, your dog is 10 now. Like Gene said, time does fly.

C-ya April. All in all not a bad one.

I'll take them over some contrarian pulling them straight from their ass.

Yep good call! Frost advisories out for Litchfield county. Spotty frost for Western Mass.

It will turn cooler tomorrow before warm air returns to the region ahead of an advancing cold front. The weekend will turn cooler again by Sunday. A wet pattern is likely Sunday through Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was -6.71 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.619 today.

Keep those 60 dewpoints south and I'm a happy camper. I know many like it hot but not me. I'll take 70's and 50's for as long as I can get them. Y'all will get your 80-90 degree days soon enough

High of 74.5 here today. Can not ask for a more perfect day.

To my surprise ABC27 is calling for a similar event tomorrow evening, that we just experienced last evening.

Maybe slow gain, but slow decline as well get your Coppertone ready!

Roughly about 35 minutes remaining on sunrise gains and sunset gains. Slow gain on both between now and about June 21st. To @MJO812and @nycwinter hang in there !