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Wow...Do you see what just happened with this run vs. the 18z? The southern extent of the 12"+ line has moved over 150 miles north from the VA/NC line to now central Virginia. We definitely don't want much more north trend. The LSV is now close to some of the max numbers that were previously down in northern VA. Definitely will be interesting to see how the axis of heaviest continues to evolve over the next 72 hours.

Think paralyzing storm? Supposed to drive from Brunswick to Rockville on Monday am...trying to decide if I need to cancel. Trying to wait until Friday.

Should have stuck to the old rule of thumb. Find the 850 LP and skip until a system shows where you are on the NW quadrant

Not with this one.

This needs to live in infamy forever. Just made an absolute fool of himself. Many thought he was going to do this on the last one but of course it was this one. BAM schooled him and many other southern Mets this week, they never wavered.

January 96 an pd2 did

2010 christmas day after blizzard jan 2016 blizzard did not

I would be happy with 3”-6”. We’ve been getting .5 every three day or so and it would be great to actually have to clear some snow.

Honestly, it questions the whole process. Is it a climate-related issue? Or a quirk in the algorithm? That's what I want to know.

Not much further then what's being shown. The primary will die off an pop a coastal

Going to be whole lot of pingers on Fri-Sat with that pesky warm air aloft and how quickly it moves north. Won't be enjoying that.

One thing that seems to be coming into hyper focus is that this is going to be a winter storm of proportions that our region as a whole hasn’t experienced in 10 years. I just hope it doesn’t end up being mostly sleet. I’d be perfectly fine with a huge thump of snow followed by sleet. I prefer all snow but it is what it is, and hopefully the trend doesn’t keep pushing.

The euro with the snow ice and sleet and severe cold will cause extreme hardship for the area

For me it's easier to swallow a mix when we get a foot+ of cold smoke right before and temps are in the teens for the duration.

I’d sign right now and lock this for all of New England. There’s a limit to far this can go, but much like the south a few hours ago and the Mid-Atlantic right now, I don’t want to be sitting here tomorrow at this time wondering how in the hell a historic Arctic outbreak leads to a coastal blasting the mix line 200 miles to my north. Not saying that’ll happen, but be careful of wanting others to sniff your backside…

Power is overrated, there is a reason they make batteries.

That front end thump is a straight ass kicking before any flip. 1-1.4” of precip, all snow before any flip to IP on the EC for any area west of the Bay. The 700mb FGEN are textbook on Pivotal as the WAA pattern moves in. A solid 10-18” falls before sleet comes into the picture, and the storm actually ends as snow to cap off any sleet. This is a really strong WAA pattern being depicted now with the phasing depiction. It will come in really hot and heavy like a wall. Still time for changes. This system can only climb so far north with the current upper level pattern as progged. QPF prior to flip Snow before any flip 700mb FGEN

Will wait for EURO ensembles to come out and then get some sleep....

As someone who likes power I really hope we can avoid freezing rain with temps around 20

I just don't see how this one could come back at this point. It's not just one thing, but every single thing we need to trend our way going bad. Crazy model failure. Not just people falling for wild OP runs either. The ensembles were rock solid for a couple days.

I used to enjoy YouTube weather channels until they became click bait central. Now they are insufferable, I avoid.

I sleeted in Jan ‘16. Comes with the territory. I don’t want some boring ass .5 qpf bs where the ratio ends up 10:1 anyway. that being said, please stop going north.

North with the 1 inch line

agreed plus less QPF will mean colder temps and ratio's higher to compensate for less QPF

SC. NC and VA guys