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I am saying don’t see widespread big rain amounts / flooding etc

DC streets quickly turn to rivers with this type of rain. Happened on Tuesday as well.

Yeah I was driving through it on 16th street. That was a mess. Tons of standing and flowing water on the road.

And you’ll sit in endless traffic on a Sunday. Stay home

torrential rains there for a bit in upper NW - seems like more stuff developing from the south.

1.5” is a seasonal total here

It got a little windy and some heavy rain but I wasn't really able to see anything in the way of rotation here in Pikesville / Garrison

Line of storms in MD/DE will be area to watch heading ENE

89 here a another degree and some places in Jersey will have a little mini heatwave Fri-Sat-Sun. i was 89 Friday - 90 Sat

Time for some street kayaking.

Flood Watch (NOT in NYC yet) FFA from KPHI

Congrats. You got the brunt of the heaviest slug (very high-tech weather terms there). We got the fringe here ivo Vienna - .21" so far.

Via terminal radar possible tornado just north of Milford Mill

Definite rotation couplet just south of Owings Mills moving NNE. Would be surprised if it was not warned soon.

NASA GISS uses 1951-1980 for its departures with Canada going with 1961-1990. Berkeley Earth uses the 1850-1900 period along with Copernicus and the Met Office. 1951-1980 was the last relatively stable temperature regime before emissions and temperatures really took off. So using warmer 1991-2020 climate normals masks the warming relative to the past. https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/world-of-change/global-temperatures/ The NASA GISS team chose the period of 1951-1980 as its baseline largely because the U.S. National Weather Service uses a three-decade period to define “normal” or average temperature. The GISS temperature analysis effort also began around 1980, so the most recent 30-year period was 1951-1980. Their objective is to provide an estimate of temperature change that could be compared with predictions of global climate change in response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, aerosols, and changes in solar activity. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/climate-trends-variability/trends-variations.html Much of Canadian economic and social activity is climate dependent. Understanding how Canada’s climate is changing, in the context of global climate change, is important for developing adaptive responses. The Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin (CTVB) helps communicate to Canadians how Canada's climate has changed over the recent past and longer, over the period for which Environment Canada has climate observations. The CTVB describes climate variability through maps of current and past departures from the mean (the 30-year average 1961-1990) temperature and precipitation conditions, both seasonally and annually. This approach provides visualization of the extent to which temperature and precipitation vary above and below longer term average conditions. Maps are presented for each season and year. The data are then analyzed to see if there are detectable trends of longer terms against this backdrop of climate variability for Canada as a whole, and for 11 climate regions. This information is presented as graphs with trend lines to assess climate change over the period of record, starting in 1948 when nation-wide records became available. Winter National Temperature Departures and Long-term Trend, 1948–2025

Pouring with T&L.

Um yea no seasonal models are bad the last 2 winters should be exhibit a, im as much of a weenie as the next guy but im not holding my breath next winter for sustained cold and snow ( here in the mid atl) although there is certainly an increased chance of a big storm w a mega juiced stj, but cold? highly unlikely maybe feb will be cold and thats it

Good ole fashioned gullywarsher here in silver spring

Some of the heaviest rain I’ve seen here driving down Georgia Ave from Olney.

Missed on the heavy rain. 0.20” here

Yet, and this may have already been mentioned, most modeling shows the upcoming MJO having an affinity for the Maritime Continent. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

Well ours is from a FiberOptics company digging trenches in our yard in January to lay cable. And then just dumping the clay they dig up putting seed and straw down as if that would grow back. It was a neighborhood wide project and they chose for whatever reason not to use the easement.

At that point further north, you're essentially trading cold(er) air for potential improvements in moisture, if perhaps a greater risk for ice. In my opinion, that could cancel out the warmth's detrimental effects if not add to the snow total average if you can get a good background pattern instead of the polar jet constantly lagging back into Canada.