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I guess. I know oaks are in the beech family, but beech will hold their leaves until spring.

Matches the pattern of a step-down following the other 160+ ACE years like we had in 2024. While we have been in a new RI and Cat 5 hurricane era last decade, we haven’t been able to replicate the 2003-2005 high ACE 3 years in a row. But it also means that we haven’t had and really low ACE years like 2013 and 2014. Plus we have been getting the activity lulls from late August into early September before very strong late seasons.

Let’s keep it about weather today. Maybe I’ll separate out the posts into a separate thread later, but I’m not sure what more constructively needs to be said. Tickled 50° overnight, but back down to 45.7°. 0.07” I see DIT poured again. Unreal.

Winter Storm Watches are up along the southern shore of Lake Michigan from Cook County, IL to Berrien County, MI. 6-12” possible. Probably more in Porter and LaPorte Counties. Thundersnow possible. Rates of 2-4” per hour. The IWX forecast discussion is one of the best reads in a long time. Winds over 35+ mph, 6+” of snow and leaves on the trees are going to be a perfect recipe for major tree damage. The TV Mets going super conservative due to ground temps are going to have to backtrack big time. The rates and timing will overcome a warm ground in no time. This are going be a memorable event for localized areas.

Black Friday

Yesterday was dark day for the forum. With violent outbursts and venom . A dark and doomsday scenario very similar to what the once great city of New York will soon experience. A real shame what went on. Had .40 overnight . More than expected. Onto tracking the snowstorm next weekend.

Itt sure as hell wasn't a gully washer and it's out of here at 6:20 a.m. Guessing .2"-ish... could be completely wrong. 54F

marcescence https://extension.umd.edu/resource/mystery-marcescence

Snow down here before Tday melts the next day. Would love to see a wintry progression to the snow line with cold snow starting late November. Stormy days coming up with mountain snows. Pretty much average for now.

Lol Tip I am a proud graduate 1993, The University of RI, Environmental Science degree College of Resource Development. The blue collar tag just says it all. My work is done here.

Wut

.22

Some very impressive storms last night and this morning.

what a day. i find it rather unsettling that people that appreciate the weather can't seem to understand that we are impacting it there is a debate to be had as to how we are impacting the weather directly, aside from a direct increase in overall temperature, and I think that the debate in that regard is needed and is healthy. for example, debating how the increased warming will impact nor'easter potential is worth the time, and the perspectives on that topic are appreciated however, totally denying the impact that we have had is complete BS. that stems from denial or political affiliation (which is honestly even worse than straight up denial) sorry to mods if this needs to be cleaned up btw

Yes it was (and to have that on a snow fat was even better!) That was absolutely insane--remember when we all thought Marlon Brown was gonna be a breakout after that? Lol But that was the craziest 2 mins of all time! And the memory is even sweeter knowing that snow kicked off an epic wall-to-wall winter

Completely. It’s not snowing in Oklahoma or Texas.

P&C is up to ~2” here for whatever that’s worth. Expectations low for anything that meaningful given source. But pretty good shot at first snowfall/measurable snowfall, which is exciting itself.

Just landed in Wilmington this afternoon and it felt absolutely incredible the rest of the day. It hit 72 and I immediately threw off my sweatshirt and pants and went right back to late summer mode. Wouldn’t mind staying a couple solid weeks in this weather but I’m just paying a quick visit to some extended family atm. Apparently there’s a big frog infestation in the area I’m in which is hard to fathom after days of struggling to make it out of the 40s back home lol.

The angle of the moderate rain around DC I want to see in a month when it’s 25.

The old penalty structure was probably too harsh and would tend to inhibit people from posting relatively not-so-late forecasts, but having absolutely no late penalties is not that good either long-term, I will give it some thought for 2026 if we keep going, and have late penalties that make sense. Other contests that I am involved with have much more routine late penalties that are applied automatically (whether by me or some other person running a contest). The turnout for those is larger, which tends to mean that the contest organizer(s) are not as wary of annoying people with late penalties. I think as a scientific question, there is usually no more skill shown on 2nd or 3rd than there is on 1st or day before that. The late penalty concept for a monthly forecast contest is mostly to encourage on-time entries so everyone feels equally likely to do well and also so the organizer can get the table of forecasts done and move on to their normal routines. Sooner or later somebody is going to crush that 810 barrier, this could be the month, never know.

Hopefully the Canadian will be right. 3k looks rather paltry.

Any terrain has gotten plastered over the past week. Anything above 1500ft is very white. The river valleys are not white. It’s that time of year.

Glad you guys are okay!

Same! Greatest game I’ve ever been to. I might still be recovering

46/43. Solidly in the warm-sector after one of the coldest mornings. Life comes at you fast, all the sudden dew points in the 40s are noteworthy. It’s been awhile.