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Yes it’s elevated, as is eatons neck

With the big warm up inbound later next week I'd really love to hold off on turning the heat on until we get into a more consistent colder weather pattern. Monday/Tuesday next week will be a challenge to accomplish that. Though, only one night of sub-freezing temps are expected locally.

That I do like to see.

How many times have we heard that in recent years…

Why has BOX had a map of recent snowfall reports on its point and click pages the past few days?

We’re in NYC and hope there it holds off until midnight and is out by Saturday mid am. Sunday looks wet, unfortunately.

Slightly above average snow and slightly below average temperatures is bold for this era.

From the latest NWS discussion: (snip) .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Large scale troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS through the first half of next week. This troughing will be reinforced by a powerful cold front Sunday. The amount of available moisture is somewhat in question. There is the potential for showers or even a few low-topped gusty thunderstorms, but overall rainfall amounts look light (0.25" or less). The bigger story will be the cold airmass in the wake of this front. Temperatures are likely to fall below freezing west of I-95 amid northwest breezes by early Monday morning, with 20s expected over the higher elevations. Wind chills likely dip to near or below freezing areawide by daybreak Monday, with teens or even single digits above zero for wind chills on the higher peaks. The chill will continue during the day Monday as cold air advection continues. Despite breaks of sun and downsloping west/northwest winds, high temperatures probably won`t escape the 40s on Monday, and may remain in the 20s and 30s for the higher elevations. Combined with the wind, it will probably feel more like the 30s all day (teens/20s for the higher elevations). A widespread freeze is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. This would end the growing season where it remains active along the I-95 corridor. Similarly cool high temperatures are forecast for Tuesday, with moderating temperatures by Wednesday. Although most of the area will remain dry, the first accumulating upslope/mountain snow event is looking increasingly likely for areas along and west of the Allegheny Front Sunday night through Tuesday. It is too soon to speculate on specific amounts, but the potential is there for the season`s first plowable snow. (snip)

Outside of the lake affect-NW Ohioian here-do you think the more southerly track of the AI models has any merit with regards to the synoptic event. They've done pretty well this Summer and Fall.

Curious to see if these new AI models, and their more southern tracks, win out on this one?? Very consistent and did well this Summer and Fall...

Hopefully it's a trendsetter

yes

but, would it be?

Also if I did decide to pay for a weather site which one is the consensus pick?

Can someone post snow maps for the 6z Euro run? Seems like even UVA might get a dusting from it?

I think the cold is locked in at this point regardless of models. My NWS point forecast has zero snow at all Sunday or Monday, but an overnight low of 23 Monday night. Brrr.

To be entirely honest I’m not sure save him fully torching (pun intended) the banner thread what it would be worth banning him over when we have let people stay who add way less value while they bring up climate skepticism whenever they can

Wow-Stony Brook 70mph, but isn’t that elevated at 100 feet above ground?

Seems like most long range guidance is very bullish on a lot of Atlantic blocking going into December, so as long as we can at least get a serviceable Pacific, it could be a favorable setup.

It was a beautiful November day coming up yesterday and it’s been fun seeing our first snow of the season this morning!

Hey Don, Thanks for clarifying. The 1+2 anomalies are found at this ERSST monthlies link that has the four Nino anomalies (warning: these are all based on 1991-2020 anomalies rather than being based on moving base periods): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

Correct. He’s looking for METS to chime in, and soothe his anxiety. Stepping down nicely this autumn imo.

Yeah, this is looking quite interesting still. There are still some disagreements on the synoptic setup, the GFS is a bit more progressive and would maybe limit the high-end potential, though the Euro and Canadian are more amplified and bring the core of the 500mb cold pool over or near Lake Erie Monday into Monday night...which could allow for a very fun event. It seems like lake enhanced/effect precip ramps up Sunday evening as we get into cold advection behind the departing low pressure. The flow will be northerly at this point, with some sort of Lake Huron enhanced band likely taking shape west of Cleveland initially. There could also be some disorganized showers/upslope into the higher terrain of the snowbelt. Instability isn't anything too extreme at first and the deeper cold air doesn't arrive until overnight, so accumulations may be marginal through Sunday evening. Activity should get more intense and accumulate more efficiently, even close to the lake, overnight into Monday morning. There's good agreement that the broad cyclonic flow will persist but gradually back to a more westerly direction Monday through Tuesday. It will be northwest on Monday, more west-northwest Monday night, and probably more west or even west-southwest on Tuesday. This will likely pivot any Lake Huron band east across the Cleveland metro and secondary snowbelt during the day Monday and into the primary snowbelt by Monday night, with perhaps a W-E band flaring up Monday night into Tuesday east of Cleveland while the Lake Huron band pivots east across Ashtabula County and Northwest PA. The global models don't have the resolution to resolve such features, but they seem to be hinting at some strong shoreline convergence or perhaps a mesolow of sorts evolving near or just offshore of Cleveland on Monday, which could be intriguing. Where the uncertainty lies is in mesoscale details, such as where upstream connections set-up, how our shoreline convergence behaves, and if a mesolow forms on Lake Erie. That will heavily dictate how organized any banding is and where it develops. With the flow slowly shifting from NNW to W or even WSW through the event, it has the potential to really spread the wealth. The potential exists for extreme instability, with fairly good synoptic moisture and support, especially if the trough is on the deeper side like the Canadian or Euro, which could allow for very impressive snow rates and double digit totals...the GFS would be ok, but it's not quite as good. Temperatures will be somewhat marginal, but by overnight Sunday night and through Tuesday morning should be cold enough that organized bands will be intense and able to accumulate. The higher terrain inland will accumulate more readily, but under good bands it should accumulate close to the lake. Should be a fun event to track! I'll actually be down in Athens Friday and Saturday so won't be forecasting this in an official capacity, but I'll be back in town before the event starts and may actually get some snow at my house!

3 weeks out bro…slow your roll. You do this every single season.

what do we mean by llj in this case? i may not be understanding where that was seen. i never bought into the llj idea, as i think of that as a compression jet out ahead a baroclinic axis where 900 mb fire hose is going on. if so, that is not typically found in flat progressive wave types, skirting along a straight w-e or wnw-ese deep layer motion. that may be more of cyclone climatology argument but clippers/quasi-clippers don't typically do that. if this had, this would have been unusual. unusual things do take place from time to time so in that sense ... couldn't ignore it entirely, no. however, seeing it not happen? heh but synoptically, any wind as i saw it in the modeling from 2 days ago ... was more likely going to come from a jolt isallobaric acceleration as the low was leaving, then seamlessly that pulsed acceleration becomes a few hours of caa instability related momentum gusts. (isallobaric acceleration is due to excessive deepening rates exceeding Coriolis and the wind goes across the isobars instead of flowing quasi-parallel - the response can be so overwhelming that it's like a p-wave off a bomb blast with low lvl wind fields, even calm scenarios, abruptly finding itself in damaging whiplash gusting in some extreme cases) two days ago this had some semblances of that effect. not hugely obvious, but when combining that with modeled lapses rates at the time, and also, a low modeled down to sub 980 mb ...the rest became choosing the model that was the most dystopian d-drip extreme lol . seriously though it should be noted, the nam never really had big wind beginning ~ two day ago. the other aspect is the model magnification syndrome. ha. just mean that tendency to de-amplify just about everything the models actually model, when they bring events inside of 72 hours. we've discussed this ad naseam. this overall system devolution in modes, and it really bit some forecasting ass this time. that dependable error correction ( greater amplitude to less amplitudes at irregular percentage headaches) is puzzling. i've wondered if perhaps there a physical flaw in the model construction, one possibly being exposed by cc. i've wondered if there is a natural, unavoidable tendency for systems to 'glow' prominently out in time, then succumbing to countless corrosive factors - those that cannot be seen - yet to emerge along the way; they gnaw at the system in question. i've even wondered if the engineers were mandated to do this on purpose- because it could actually serve a purpose in ferreting out the more important events that might otherwise be buried in chaos out in time. we can sci-fi this for ever. probably something like that middle reason... either way, something like 10 to 40% of any 'storm' is pretty much eaten away in some kind of entropic tax as the late mid range comes into near terms. this system clearly fell victim to that.