All Activity

I’m gonna go ahead and call cold rain and mist for the Raleigh area next weekend.

Welp I’m at a half tank oil with a 240 gallon tank. I ordered 100 gallons today in the realization we have a 5” snow pack we are likely heading to the single digits tonight and looking towards next weekend if the AI Euro is correct 10”+ more of snow and ridiculous -3 temps I’ll have to crank the furnace up to prevent the oil line from freezing. Just thought I would share keep the thermostat up if you have oil when temps go below 10 degrees otherwise you run the risk of freezing the line especially if you havd an older tank with low oil water sinks to the bottom of the tank freezing the line. No oil in pi no heat and you damage your furnace system. Get ready I think it’s coming!

Tomorrow is Tuesday. You are not going to know anything definitive 5 days out.

Feels like the AI models already got some people emotional and cliff diving haha

Perhaps a good case study for you

You mean for the past 5-7 years has. My son hasn’t seen a “big dumping” in his life. He is 7! Fingers crossed. I showed him pictures of our big blizzards and he got so excited.

Gonna wait on 12z run (possibly 18z)...but right now I wouldn't put 0% chance for MBY for snow, but it ain't much higher. Leaning toward flip a coin ice or cold rain here. Dont like the subtle changes in the Euro Op..baby stepping toward the AIFs.

I mean, looking at the 6z Euro, 6 days out sure looks ok to me...living in the Mid Atlantic for most of my life, I recall quite a few of these systems and their abilities to end up further north than forecasted 5 days out. Always seemed like the sleet line would make its way further north than foecasted, even within 24 hrs. The fact that the OPs are starting to bounce around, the closer we get definitely shows there is some wiggle room. Lets get some ridging in the SE....

You’d be surprised how quickly this can all trend north and we end up with cold rain.

Nice morning, light snow and cold. Could be some heavier snow showers later today per NWS. Not sure what to make of the weekend storm. I think I'd rather flirt with too far NW than a miss to the south especially given most of our snow this season has been the lighter qpf variety. The AI models generally look good, but if we are looking at some anomalously setup they have not been trained on that could explain why they are further north right now. Focus for me is on the shortwave and hope it ejects in one piece, then timing of the PV and the cold.

Do any of yall have any idea what the Google WeatherNEXT is? Apparently its verification scores are up there with the Euro and Euro AI, but I've never heard about it until joining SouthernWX.

I’d rather worry about mixing than getting smokin cirrus while the storm passes south.

I'm not sure it'll matter much with the temps we're looking at now... insane prolonged cold.

still holding steady

Low of 13 and have a snow shower now. Lake will most definitely freeze over this week (about halfway there already).

Yasssssss!!! It’s been soooooo long since we’ve needed this thread!! Let’s gooooooo!!!

My wife left to go to work this morning and she said she had to brake in our neighborhood for the recycling truck and she started skidding.

To keep from and mixing, we do not want to primary low running too deep into West Virginia. Also would need some sort of coastal transfer to lock in cold air east of the mountains.

5" right outside of Concord MA center.

i'm hoping this weekend we get the big dumping that i've been waiting for all year!

Done.

This weekend was absolutely amazing. Reminds me of winters of childhood. It was a long duration snowfall that dropped a good amount of snow. I feel like in the past decade when we get snow it is all much quicker and heavier. This was a nice steady snowfall. Looking ahead it looks great!

I mean the constancy here is great. Hope it has the right idea. Last 4 runs of euro ai.

We had not-even-close-to-accumulating flurries so I'm pretty sure they'll be a T. The discussion in this thread about slick streets is a completely different world from what we experienced around DC.

Too far out guys. Wait til Wed to start getting excited. Just going by my own unscientific observation: when this forum starts tracking 7 days out like its 2 days out, it never works out as planned.