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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 321 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Virginia Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will form in Virginia and Maryland this afternoon, and will spread eastward from West Virginia. The storm environment will favor damaging downbursts with winds up to 60-70 mph, while the strongest storms could produce isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter.

Yeah, I hear ya. Fact of the matter is...we also have not yet to experience a synergistic/resonant feed-back heat scenario. They're actually studied in climate as "synergistic heat waves" I may be that we can't. We might just have too many goephysical traits that make that less able to happen here, but like western Europe and Australia, the steppe of the Urals and over in Russia ... Chinese Asia... The Pacific NW in 2020 is an example of that, where carried on for 10 days at some 35+ for high temps.

Last night was weird - the gust front produced winds of at least 50-55 mph and put numerous branches down all over the yard, including a few big ones, and snapped one of my potted plants. Then it did not rain a drop

It seems there’s only one person frustrated and that person will have some of the hottest temps next week with West flow DSD

Going to have to keep the kids indoors and find other ways to keep them occupied if it’s going to be that cold.

Hard 2 disagree, what do we say gang?

Watch up for most

95-99% percentile for the first half of June and some are frustrated that summer hasn’t set in yet. This would be like starting the first 2 weeks of Dec at -10 with a couple of good snow events.

I meant for an entire summer month.

103.5 so far

Yeah, we did that in March of 2012 pretty sure

Trim the vegetation around the KNYC sensors or move it to another location. It gets worse and worse each year the accuracy of Central Park highest during the warm season.

I feel like we’ve done it in the winter… or at least +7 to +8 recently up this way when radiating conditions are really poor.

Coldest week of our lives next week.

Sunday ...Mid-Atlantic... Currently, the best overlap of enhanced west/southwesterly shear and MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg appears to be across the Mid-Atlantic from eastern VA into southeast PA/southern NJ within a moist axis and pre-frontal surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms may develop within this area during peak heating and pose a risk mainly for damaging gusts. Stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected with northward extent into PA/NY and portions of New England. However, degree of destabilization is uncertain due to cloud cover and possible remnant convection over the Ohio Valley from the Day 2/Saturday period moving across the Upper Ohio Valley early in the period ahead of the surface cold front. Depending on model trends and mesoscale details emanating from prior day convection, severe probability could be adjusted northward in subsequent outlooks.

Can you imagine if we ran a full month of +9F? Wow!

yeah I was just in Austin - humid as hell.

This doesn't strike me as anything too cold. About time for a little cooldown after this epic torch of a start to summer. Look at these forecast departures & percentiles for average daily high temps for the 1st half of June - unbelievable!

Quite honestly didn’t dig into it much, to compare the forecast here to the Champlain Valley. Was just looking at the NWS zone forecast for here and saw Upper 60s to near 70F for 2-3 days… which is around where dews are now. Monday Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. Monday Night Through Tuesday Night Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs around 70.

No signs of any real summertime heat in the ensembles at least through the solstice for the GLOV.

98/78 for feels like of 115. Yikes!

Just to clarify to insure appropriate context: -There’s no doubt that currently Nino 3.4 is very warm for so early in the year. But keep in mind that Eliot’s chart showing the current warmth is from a combination of GW and El Nino. On that basis, it’s clear that Nino 3.4 is by a good margin the warmest on record. -But the best way to compare to past years as far as just El Niño component, itself, is to look at the relative anomalies for the same point in the year. Currently, relative 3.4 is ~+1.0. I’ll now compare to other weeklies, which go back to 1982: 09JUN1982 1.0 11JUN1997 0.8 10JUN2015 0.6 14JUN2023 0.4 So, going back to 1982, 2026 is currently near the warmest on record about tied with 1982, which is itself obviously quite notable. To go back further, I need to look at relative monthlies. So, these won’t give as precise a comparison, but they’re still worth mentioning. Currently, the CFS is projecting June of 2026 to be ~+0.95. I’ll now compare to some past June relatives: 1957 6 1.13 1965 6 1.09 1972 6 0.98 So, 2026 is projected for June, alone, to be slightly cooler than 1957/1965 and ~same as 1972. So, folks need to be careful to not let others deceive you. The current El Niño strength is by no means out on its own and is instead in the general vicinity of 1982, 1972, 1965, and 1957 for the warmest since 1950. Going back further is less reliable for comparison purposes. But per Eric Webb’s MJJ 3.4 anomalies, one could argue that 1877, 1902, 1905, and 1941 could have easily been similar, if not warmer than 2026 in mid June. There’s a good chance that 1877 was a bit warmer and some chance that 1905 was slightly warmer in mid June.

New record for my PWS, 103.3! Still an hour before we peaked yesterday so that could go higher but currently sitting at a “cool” 102.4

Briefly hit 105 IMBY!

Outside this forum, but Raleigh, NC is having a terrible year. They just set their (drought-assisted) 14th record high of the year down there, and their record period goes back to 1887. Ugh.