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  2. Another storm lining up on the train tracks behind it. Gonna be a long day of subway flooding.
  3. Thunderstorm out in Suffolk. Of course the baseball league didn’t cancel the game until there was lighting visible
  4. An observation one doesn't off see in the NYC area from LaGuardia Airport this morning:
  5. Everything went around me lol .20" even better this morning activity is likely going to hamper the next round in the afternoon it looks 50/50 at best A miss will be quite terrible
  6. NYC bullseye storm. We deserved a soaker, lately we've been missing storms to our north and south.
  7. It's worth watching, for sure. With the westerly flow aloft, even 190 or 200 degree winds (SSW) might be enough to make things interesting. Most of the guidance veers us to more fully southwest ahead of storm development, though, and surface wind speeds may not be particularly strong. If that's wrong, yes, a tornado or two would be possible. My guess now is that we'll have some supercell structures (and a tornado warning or two) with the favorable deep-layer shear but not enough low-level shear for tornadoes.
  8. Ramping up the elevated instability…not a bad sign. Just have to see if we can muster up enough surface instability. It’s going to be a short window but not impossible. Some of the bigger events happen when you’re rapidly increasing instability just out ahead of the approaching activity
  9. It'll make the lack of storms today more memorable.
  10. Light rain so far but that heavy blob's headed right at me. Much of the city will have 3" easy when this is over.
  11. Insane storm. Lots of lightning and thunder and some of the heaviest rain I've ever seen and I don't say that lightly, very scary out on the roads.
  12. Hey Sparta. Sparta here too - over near the health and wellness center on 517 (Sparta Ave) We were out from 11:15 - 11:50 but it came back, and then blinked again. We're good for now, but the JCP&L outages are stacking up. Almost 30K and counting. I have a small station over here but nothing fancy, as well as an official plastic rain gauge since the electronic tipper is unreliable, sometimes it works, sometimes not.
  13. Agreed. I'm ok with not seeing tornadoes either. Shear is very high and dynamics would be enough for a significant tornado threat for our area if we had the instability to back it up.
  14. Not that it necessarily means anything locally but at least it’s good to see lots of thunder activity on radar in multiple places
  15. Man, this is a Florida thunderstorm.
  16. Yep another round headed this way
  17. I'm fine with rain and thunder. Don't need to lose power again
  18. I've seen how these events play out time and time again. We almost always need surface heating for several hours to generate a severe threat. The dynamics can overcome this to some degree but it won't be enough
  19. more heavy rain /storms heading this way in central NJ south of Allentown
  20. yup...that's the stuff to watch for this evening. As that activity approaches we may see some discrete develop out ahead of it.
  21. Very humid, muggy, and eye-irritating smoky again in northern Ocean County. Worst smoke for me in a few days here
  22. * Flash Flood Warning for... Bergen County in northeastern New Jersey... Essex County in northeastern New Jersey... Hudson County in northeastern New Jersey... Eastern Passaic County in northeastern New Jersey... Union County in northeastern New Jersey... Kings (Brooklyn) County in southeastern New York... New York (Manhattan) County in southeastern New York... Queens County in southeastern New York... Richmond (Staten Island) County in southeastern New York... * Until 200 PM EDT. * At 1153 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 0.7 and 1.3 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to locally 2 inches in 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
  23. The radar certainly looks more robust than what the NAM and HRRR were suggesting. What that means going forward, your guess is as good as mine. More thunder as another storm approaches from the west.
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