All Activity

That is awesome, keep us updated. I'm loving all the OBS and pictures you all are posting!!

Some snow flurries

47 / 46 let us see if the clouds will break and that clearing west works its way east into the area.

Currently in a white out. The temp has dropped to 25.

It updated again though. The update briefly shifts trough west but then the -EPO comes back with a vengeance & it stays very wintry look through entire month of JAN with trough east. That is what led to whoever posted that on X. In the original X-post Roundy gives explantation of the tool: https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1987512542269218907?t=NZtDEqvG5ceU83Q9TrzQ9g&s=19

These bands are fun. 27 with quarters falling and it's November 10th.

Neat event. Looks like the jackpot areas saw 10-12". Over here, our 1.2" of heavy wet snow yesterday half melted then we got another 1.3" from the Lake Huron band in the evening. It was gorgeous this morning as the last gasps of autumn mixed with the early touch of winter, temps in the mid 20s with wind chills mid teens. Snow totals were 2.5" my backyard, 2.2" DTW. Some areas in the thumb/Port Huron saw 4-6". Totals varied widely throughout SE MI, with some spots getting as little as 0.5" to as much as 6". Detroit-south saw the most snow in the morning (1-3") and then the eastern suburbs saw the most in the evening (1-6").

A November day for sure.

Dreary, Dismal, and pouring here.

50th anniversary of the infamous wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald. Also, the "White Hurricane" of 1913 was winding down on this date and that wrecked a number of ships. Very deadly day on Superior historically.

42 years as a lawyer, and you learn to understand people's motivations. Sorry, that's my impression of your motivations, along with others.

The stratosphere is much more predictable than the troposphere, so the long range ensembles do have “skill” beyond the typical 8-10 day sensible weather prediction limit. I want to say there is skill to 30-40 days?? It seems guidance often tries to predict these strat warming events a little too quickly and there are can kicks, but that’s my anecdotal observation.

I'll ask him about it tomorrow. The tool hes using is his own lowpass filter, which he's mentioned is only one of many metrics to refer to, identifying the base state, from which higher-frequency signals like the MJO superimpose on top of when they're stronger. He has been serious about the RMM forecasts lately though. We go over the recent runs at the beginning of each class.

Getting some heavy downpours.

True. Forgot about that as I was half drunk at a bar in West Chester.

I’m feeling bullish on some containment breaking this evening

Now you can read minds? Wow just wow. If you have “meltdowns” over the weather you need to check yourself into a psych ward

Snow showers in downtown Knoxville.

Fake snow life

So there's still a thread of hope for you that we get a warm and snowless winter for you and others of your ilk to sit back and enjoy the meltdowns?