All Activity

Everything just evaporates when it gets past greensboro. Uggg

18z HRRR lights up NOVA with 3" - 5" of rain tomorrow

Looks like the answer is yes. Another big storm about to hit your area.

And totally expected. Plume after plume of dust, a lot of subsidence and shear to knock back even the most robust looking wave that rolls of Africa. Caribbean looks to be shut down for at least the next 2-3 weeks and likely longer. Hard to imagine any meaningful ACE getting racked up in that area. Anything of note I think will have to come out of the SW Atlantic or maybe the Gulf. CSU ACE of 50 is starting to look generous. Even with peak Climo coming into view if we don't see some relaxation in the hostile atmospheric conditions I would not expect much. We'll see what things look like as we move into September but August looks to remain very quiet.

Total whiff by models, but testament to just how hostile the basin is with El Niño roaring

A juiced up inland runner with just enough cold in place could produce a big snowstorm there. Otherwise its mostly LES. Still a pretty good place to be in the eastern US even if snowfall is below normal there. All relative.

Why are you still here if you find nothing of value?

Question for the mets/long range folks. When would we expect to see such a large/powerful El Nino begin to couple with the atmosphere? Wouldn't that yield more precipitation events in this neck of the wood by now since it's so robust?

Had another one myself and now the sun is back out and the humidity is still miserable.

Typically ninos are not good there. Warm winters. Southern storm track. Split flow. Not a lot of NS waves. But all it takes is one cold blast to get an epic event and I’m not am expect on lake effect but typically strong nino seasons are below avg snow for the lakes.

Sounds like a lot of flooding down in central IL

Another day more storms….

The Jaylen Daniels memes are funny right now though. Even in sports the BS bleeds in. If I read the comments under the eagles news you’d think they’re the Cleveland Browns. As someone who’s been a fan for over 40 years I’m like Y’all need some perspective. The last 10 years been to 3 super bowls and playoffs 9/10 times. This is as good as it gets and they talk like the team is garbage.

Same here. Hard to avoid the cesspool.

I liked TTPD but I get why it’s an acquired taste. If you’re not in the mood to be depressed that’s not the album for you.

Well after digging a bit more using AI, that winter seems to have been more suckass than I thought for the Tug hill region lol. Because of the exceptionally powerful 2015–16 El Niño event, the lake-effect snow season started late and lacked its typical persistence. [1] Estimated Snowfall Totals While Montague can average between 200 and 300+ inches annually, estimates and nearby cooperative tracking stations put the broader town area's total roughly between 110 and 140 inches for the entire 2015–16 season: [1] Hooker (Hamlet within Montague): While Hooker holds legendary status for massive winters (and logged a whopping 339.3 inches much later during the 2024–25 season), it barely crossed the low triple-digits during the tracking span of this El Niño winter. [1, 2] Constableville 1.2 NW Station: Located just outside the Montague town line on the plateau, this official GHCN daily climate station wrapped up its main core monitoring period (Dec 1, 2015 – Feb 29, 2016) with just 96.97 inches of recorded snow. [1]

12z HRRR had a general 1" - 2" regionwide, with a narrow strip of 3" - 4" near Laurel.

That’s why I’m still there. Get eagles news before the papers and outlets. Easily follow weather accounts and soccer. The other crap bleeds into my feed.

Maybe heading up towards i70 later this afternoon to see what this MCV in Indiana brings. Would like to see a bit more destabilization, tho.

I’ll admit I’m somewhat biased. Travis’s brothers summer place is a couple blocks from where my parents live. I’ve run into him many times over the years. He seems like a genuinely nice and fun guy. Also charitable. He does this bar event each year to raise money for autism which because of my own personal experience is important to me. I’ve never met his brother, just missed him once actually. But Jason talks about him like he’s a great guy and given the family I doubt he’s a jerk. When he started dating Taylor was before I listened to her at all but my opinion was “good for him, I hope they’re happy”. Silly me I didn’t realize I’m supposed to hate everyone who’s more successful than me. I’ll try harder.

Yeah same with Syracuse. I think that area is generally drier during a Nino wrt synoptic storms.

I seem to recall 15-16 was Albany’s least snowy year on record? Not an exact comp obviously, but shows that the synoptic snows at least can struggle up there in strong Ninos.

I think the Tug Hill area received somewhat less to right about average snowfall for 2015-16 depending on the exact area, and that winter seems to be a good comp for this upcoming Nino. I would guess there will be more mild/snowless periods than typical for that area in between big snow events. PSU can dig into the other analogs. eta- Nov into Dec was quite warm relative to avg even up there, so the lack of snow during that period would have had some impact on seasonal totals.