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For the last time Chuck we used to be able to get snow in hostile pac regimes. look at this sounding for Westminster while it’s raining. It’s 33-34 in the boundary layer. Cold enough everywhere else. The boundary has warmed 2f since 1970. So explain to me how is the fact it’s 2f warmer not hurting our snow chances tomorrow when it’s 2f too warm? I’m listening. Explain the math to me.

NAM looks a lot more phased through 36h

Someone might get NAMed here depending on temps

I guess I wasn’t paying close enough attention but I wasn’t really expecting light snow today. It’s nothing huge but always welcome. Well, at least until mid to late March when the golf jones starts kicking in.

The surface has warmed on average 2f since 1970 now look at the sounding for Baltimore during the rain and tell me if it makes a difference!!!! its 35 at the surface and all layers are below freezing except the lowest 1000 feet. You think cooling it 2f wouldnt help? Now it’s 33 and only above freezing a very tiny bit. It can snow at 33! It would have still been marginal but…more likely to tip snow v rain. Now what about NW of 95. Look at the sounding for Reisterstown for example. It’s 33-34 in the boundary during the rain. What would 2f colder mean for them? Im tired of this honestly. Sooooo much of our snow came right at or near 32 in the last. It’s ridiculous to claim increasing temps 2f since 1970 or worse 3f since 1950 hasn’t fundamentally hurt our snowfall in a significant way. And the numbers show it. Our snowfall has decreased. There is no logical retort to this. And I’m not talking about human influence. I don’t care. Not having that debate. If you want to claim it’s not human fine. That’s political we don’t have to debate that. But it is warmer. That’s a fact. That’s not political. And it’s asinine to claim somehow it’s warmer but not hurting our snow in marginal temp situations like this.

Seems like a bit of a can kick however with the 19/20 disappearing act

Heh... if we can call the 06z GFS' no event at all as colder, I guess nothing happening is technically 0 thermodynamics, so it would philosophically fit that definition haha Not sure I agree with it yet, still lookin'

Light accumulating snow this morning, 5F

Most times as I'm not a morning guy.

@Ralph Wiggum @Heisy I’m in Philly today and PennDOT has brined for tomorrow lol

Well, the meteorologist can comment but it seems like a set up that isn’t quite so sensitive. The storm is coming from the west and it’s red developing along the coast as a very slow moving Miller B. If they’re still blocking, that would seem to be a good rationale for a crawler. This scenario has been shown on this model for several days and on other models at times I think.

They had 1” yesterday. Not sure on today yet

Still 100% coverage here. Absolutely incredible run. I hope the kids took advantage of this stretch and have been sledding every day. @WxUSAF, is BWI still recording snow coverage?

SREFs with an uptick in precip vs. prior run for those looking for model support. (But yes it’s the SREF)

Low of 23. I decided to check in on MU’s twitter feed since he basically mocked the possibility of anything happening here earlier in the week and sure enough he has been ranting about the models again the last couple of days. He is really going through it this winter.

19.2 for the low. Sunniest spots facing south are down to grass, but most areas still 1 to 2 inches of snowcrete. Should see massive grass gains today.

Yeah, to Jax's point, much of metro and points south has looked like a warzone in recent weeks. Almost as if an EF-0 tornado the size of a county swept through. Definitely an historic storm that no one will miss. Hopefully, next year we'll be able to secure more fond winter memories. Wish more people could have had my outcome in the sense we didn't lose power against a better sleet/freezing rain ratio.

There’s some good content here but for you to write this type of post on a Saturday morning during coffee time addressing the wall that is Chuck, you need a bourbon and a Prozac.

Because it has a cold bias??? Among many other problems lol

And 2/14 12z - we're off QPF SERF

Agreed with potential like Upton says for high end advisory

NOT WITH THAT TRACK ON FEB 15!!! Dude we had this damn debate a few days ago. Yea it was cold, when we had a perfect pacific epo pna ridge. Of course it was cold go back and look at the flow, air was coming straight out of the arctic cross polar and dumping into the Eastern US. And Utah was torching with highs in the 60s! We’ve had that kind of thing before and it was even COLDER! Look at 1977 and 1994! We’ve had high temps near 0 in past years with that kind of direct arctic discharge with snowcover. 30 years ago what we just had would have been even colder Chuck. And the globe didn’t suddenly get colder we were juts lucky to be under the tiny bit if cold real estate! look at the global heights from Jan 25-Feb 5. 70% is still RED Chuck. For the last time this isn’t about what happens when we are lucky enough to have a perfect pac pattern that dumps arctic air over us and we’re in the 30% of the world that’s blue. I know we can still snow them. But what happens the rest of the time??? What about the 70% when we’re under the red? When thickness are now 10-15m higher in the same pattern. You don’t think that makes a difference. You don’t think if the whole thicknesses were a little lower tomorrow or might not tip the scales from rain to snow for some places in this forum? Have you looked at the soundings tomorrow? The whole damn column is cold enough except the boundary where it’s 35-38 degrees. Guess what layer is warming fastest! The boundary. How can you possibly think it’s not making a difference with the marginal storms? So many of our past snows were barely cold enough because we’ve always been on the southern edge of where it snows much in winter. If you’re going to argue warming isn’t hurting us then you need to answer these 3 questions. 1) where did all the marginal snows during hostile pacific patterns go? Why don’t we get snows from perfect track waves during warm patterns anymore? Because we used to. I know. I have a data base of all of them. So what happened? why are perfect track waves doing hostile pac patterns juts perfect track rain now? What changed? 2) why has the median and mean snowfall for DC and Baltimore been declining consistently for 100 years and accelerating in the last 50. Explain it. Baltimore used to average almost 25” of snow and now it’s 19 and likely to fall closer to 16 when it updates next decade! Why? What happened to 30% of our snow? 3) since you’re saying warming isn’t hurting us in these marginal Situations then explain this. All the snowstorms we got during otherwise warm periods from a perfect track wave in the past when it was barely cold enough to snow…take early March 1962 for example. Some places just NW of 95 got 10” but with temps of 33-34 degrees while it was snowing. It just snowed hard enough to overcome the very marginal temps. But it’s warmer now. How would that still be snow if you apply today’s temps to that storm. Now it’s 35-36! The whole column is warmer too. Which is worse because it was probably isothermal so now it has 5000 feet of 35 to overcome instead of 33. How is that still a snowstorm? Or are you saying it’s not warmer? That thicknesses haven’t increased. That thermometers are broken and they’re all lying to us? because you can’t have it both ways. So much of our snow in the past came when it was barely cold enough to snow. So you cannot say it’s warmer but don’t worry that’s not hurting us. You can’t because if you warm is at all we lose so much of our past snow. 1-2 degrees F warmer and so many of those storms I documented get worse. Become 3” instead of 5”. A 3” wet slop becomes just rain! And suddenly it only snows during cold regimes and you say warming has nothing to do with it which makes absolutely no sense logically. How can you warm what was already a barely cold enough to snow equation and say it’s no big deal to our snowfall? Explain that Chuck.

As we know this will change, but would love to have a 36-hour crawler. Just let's get it a little further south. It would be luck of the draw to be a big storm ( snow ). We already had one biggie though... Two would be the icing on top

Hopefully we sneak a stat padder 1-3" type event.

Easy fix…every balloon sold at Party City should include radiosonde. Kids lose balloons all the time. Imagine all the additional data. As mentioned, we need some enthusiasm from the mesos today. Otherwise, I’ll be in the spring thread.