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I am just amazed how good the long range ensembles have been this winter with the theme or setup of the pattern inside about 192 and how bad they have been beyond that. Now we have the ensembles today briefly trying to go -PNA but then seeming to be shifting everything back towards +PNA again by D15-16. I think most likely the overall idea is the +PNA is going to hold longer than expected as that regime once it establishes as hard as it is going to here it is difficult to boot it out. I have no real ideas beyond that because the MJO strength is a big issue if its strong or weaker

I like the idea, though when presenting I wouldn't be so specific. It wouldn't just be for millennials of course; it would be interesting for us Gen Xers as well (thus allow for longer-term data if you can). Also I wouldn't state "look to find a location hundreds of miles south" - that makes it look like you're purposely biasing the data; instead perhaps just "look to find a location that most closely matches the location of childhood" and the the user come to their own conclusions (typically they would find it some distance north/south; depending on whether looking back to childhood from a given location or looking forward to present from a given childhood location).

Block feature works good. I’ve restored civility to MY forum experience. You are a huge asset to the forum. Some others here are just huge asses. Ignore em.

you can't even really forecast events that far in the future... you just kinda have to look at trends and the general longwave pattern and see how that goes. i don't think any respectable met would make a deterministic forecast more than 72 hours out

I'm sorry to read about the counterproductive nature of a deleted post here. I believe it's fantastic that meteorologists such as @brooklynwx99 share their thoughts, insights, and expertise here. Their time is valuable. Their freely sharing thoughts and exchanging ideas in the forums and subforums is highly generous. They are under no obligation to do so. Their contributions make AmericanWx more than a mere discussion board. If one disagrees with a participant's ideas, there are respectful ways to express dissent, if one feels the need to do so. Civility is not difficult. Moreover, one is always free to offer his or her own ideas. In most professional settings, the existence of differing views is a powerful organizational asset. Moreover, because organizational culture is intangible in nature, it can be a tremendous and sustainable source of competitive advantage. After all, when employees and teams feel comfortable in sharing their ideas, are sufficiently mature to respect differences in thinking, and focused on the larger organizational goals, which drive them to develop common solutions by leveraging the full range of thinking, they tend to be better problem-solvers, more creative, more productive, and more satisfied. The company also tends to do better on financial and non-financial metrics than would otherwise be the case. Everyone has blind spots. A larger range of ideas can fill those spots and also help one improve one's own thinking. Certainly, many of the posts, meteorologists and other members here have allowed me to do so. I can never thank them enough.

Same. Just keeping an eye on it but don't really have anything to add other than what I already have.

Most important run of the GFS since 6hrs ago

attacking in DM's is not adult-like

This is from Jan 6-7th last year. Had snow otg for weeks, then a bit more snow and another big snow storm in Feb. Maybe a little later this year, but lets hope for similar outcomes.

It seemed to have gone by the wayside with the drama that seems to happen on this form often. Lol. But I did hear through a birdie that they're looking pretty good. And I don't think it's just one particular model either

Yeah, it is unfair to grade someone's forecasting ability if they aren't actually issuing forecasts on here. Talking about the pattern isn't issuing a forecast. You can disagree with their pattern analysis, but it's not fair to call it a forecast if they were just analyzing an ensemble run or a model run. Some mets and plenty of amateurs do issue forecasts from time to time, and those are fair game to critique as well. But I think people should be clear about what they are critiquing. Model analysis is not the same as an actual forecast. And I also don't think it is an indictment on anyone's skill if they post more or less depending on what type of sensible wx the models are showing. I'm sure most mets on here have a lower post rate when we have a vortex over AK and a zonal mild flow in mid-winter. I know I do. I could keep posting about whether the zonal flow might change enough to give us high temps of 54F instead of 47F, but that is about as interesting to me as watching paint dry, so I normally refrain. There are others on here to pick up the slack on that type of discussion if I don't want to do it. Additionally, I think "pattern talk" is much more likely to occur during periods where there are no imminent threats. We're searching for the next "interesting period". We all know that in rapid-fire stretches of winter storms, we are not constantly posting much about longwave patterns or what some vague D11-15 signal might produce....we're dissecting smaller scale features over a short term storm threat, and maybe tracking another one in the medium range. All of the oxygen gets sucked up during those times with the threats themselves and not pattern talk.

Here's another example of a pairing. This subforum spends a disproportionate amount of time discussing Chester County, PA. So I decided to locate a pair for the small town of Avondale, Pennsylvania. And if you look at the data, it's very similar to Warrenton, Va. of the late 20th century, over the past 10 years. And these two sites are acceptable pairs because they are both small towns on the edge of large metro areas, at similar elevation, and in a similar location relative to the coast.

[emoji817]

Did anybody see the 12z…oh…

You can really feel it warm up with that extra hour of daylight

I grabbed a couple of these from CPC...the MA forum has also posted these.

It has been off the table for us for a couple of days now. The warm front is going to stay south of us, so the 60s and 70s will make it into southern VA and part of the lower Eastern Shore, but we'll be stuck in the 40s, maybe getting to the low 50s Saturday evening with a little mixing. The good news is that the further south position of the warm front puts us in a good position for significant rain.

Bears packers, in a snow squall. Epic setup incoming

And this is why we can’t have nice things… When the actual Mets with a degree stop posting as much and we wonder why, the past few pages are the answer. I may not post much but the reason I lurk often is because of the insights you get here from actual meteorologists that they otherwise aren’t going to share on official NWS products etc. If you want a cookie cutter risk adverse discussion go read your local AFD twice a day dink. So a special thank you to posters such as Brooklyn, Coastal, Chris, Wiz, Seymour and Tip (even though I don’t know what you are saying 50% of the time, something about the flow being raging fast!) Your insights are much appreciated from me.

Yeah man, 100%. Don’t be dissing Brooklyn. I personally love his contributions to the forum. I didn’t see the comment, but F whatever it said.

Obviously, you want to find pairs that aren't drastically different in elevation. I would not agree that "many areas it gets hotter as you go north in the summer" - that may be the case for the Florida peninsula, but mean summertime temperature changes are still largely consistent with latitudinal changes for the bulk of the continental US, even if the gradient is somewhat reduced. Again, obviously, excluding higher elevated locations to the south where the elevation induces cooling.

I missed the squall as I was out of town, so I’m in for this one.

An orderly pattern progression remains underway. In the extended range, that progression should culminate in a return to colder weather with persistently below normal temperatures. A storm heading through the Great Lakes will bring rain tomorrow into early Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely across much of the region. Through the middle of next week, highs will generally reach the 40s during the daytime and 30s for lows in New York City. Somewhat colder readings are likely outside the City and in areas where strong radiational cooling takes place. After the middle of next week, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the middle and upper 20s. No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January. Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be a few more days before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +4.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.466 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.4° (-0.3° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yeah tonight's rainfall is going to put a dent to this dry spell.