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Stein, stein, everywhere a stein F*ckin' up the greenery Breakin' my mind Do this, don't do that Can't you feel the stein?

I may regret this but @TimB may I ask why you have started putting laughing emojis on most of @ChescoWx's posts? I mean, if you just don't like the guy or disagree with some of his general themes, that's fine, but laughing at every post seems a bit much. Most of the posts are just brief summaries and forecasts that aren't controversial in any way. As an example, below is his post from last Wednesday, which I believe is the first one you started mocking. I can't think of a more benign harmless post. Food for thought. "We saw some light rain amounts overnight and this early AM including 0.05" at both Glenmoore and East Nantmeal. Shower chances will continue both today and tomorrow with continued cooler than normal temperatures. We clear up Friday and Saturday with our temperatures rebounding to near normal before a cold front moves through on Sunday which will allow for the return of an autumnal feel in the air."

Or just be on the western end of a time zone. We're on the wrong side for evening light

HHH we salute you 1 final time, until Christmas

All we can do is wait and watch. I will say this however, if we get to the end of September and are still waiting for things to get active with the number of tropical systems/ACE, then I think it will be time to give it up

Enter your September forecasts below ... this post will eventually be edited, the seasonal max info will move here and that post will change to updated annual scoring which so far has not been added to preliminary August scores three posts back.

not imby

Similar here, 81 with a dew of 57

am I crazy or is anyone else seeing a little color on the leaves can anyone else at 43.5+ N confirm lol

Bastardi is taking the opposite side of this, which is what I was referring to about warmer subtropics than tropics tending to stabilize the tropics, themselves: My take is that those subtropical waters will likely largely warm back up within a couple of weeks and make this cooling a forgotten thing by then.

Most of the RT 2 corridor is way below, normal rainfall. Greenfield is that little yellow square in Franklin County that’s closer to normal, but that’s only because we had that isolated downpour last week that dropped close to an inch of rain.

The dew dropped from 69 to 56 in 2 hours Up to 83 here

81/60. Dews should keep dropping all day

An all out coc fest moving forward. Best time of the year is here.

His webbed hands have been wrapped around our throats in N ORH county

What a boring pattern and tropics are dead too

Yeah that and we had some storms in August too. But that 6.5” accounts for it big time.

What Derek Ortt is saying is debatable. Why? Because this has cooled a portion of the W subtropical region much more than the tropics, themselves. That arguably actually makes the W tropical Atlantic, itself, more favorable because this brings their anomalies closer together. Warmer subtropics than tropics tends to stabilize the tropics. Erin has reversed that to some extent. Edit: To make it more complicated, these storm related coolings have been reversing more quickly in recent years. So, we’ll see how long that subtropical region remains cool.

For as much as we suffered through June & July; JJA as a season is gonna come back looking average.

Both updates from Colorado State and NOAA a few weeks back maintained an above average season and didn't decrease anything from their previous update. I was a little shocked by this but there must be confidence from the experts the second half will get busy. Caribbean and Gulf could really be something to watch. Waters there (as per what's been the norm lately) are running above average and have largely been undisturbed and we're still a bit away from peak climo for SSTs. We'll also start getting more fronts to progress into the deep South (and stronger fronts).

A month from now I think we’ll be cooking in a big way. This is another heavy backloaded season imo. Hard to beat the stability and SAL issues that have been persistent across the tropical Atlantic this decade.

0.01 overnight.

To add to my post from yesterday: “That is a big part of the reason why I question 2013-14 as a “good analog”. This year has a much better chance of seeing a La Niña in the fall/early winter than 13-14 ever did, 13-14 did not have a -IOD event as we do now, it did not have a strong -PDO; in fact it was a Victoria mode PDO which is a pseudo +PDO setup and was only very weakly negative, it was not -PMM and it was a strongly positive QBO all winter, see my monthly QBO numbers above AND it did not have record low arctic sea ice. The only resemblance to this year that I see is the Atlantic tropical season (**so far**) and the big cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight, other than that, big meh as an analog IMO…..” Saw on twitter this morning a couple of folks using 13-14 as their analog, which is fine, everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion and I understand their arguments. However, one person in particular (a met) was completely unaware that 13-14 was +QBO and was incorrectly arguing that it was -QBO. If you are going to make an argument for a certain analog at least do your homework and get all your ducks in a row and facts straight. Just more of a reason to take wxtwitter with a huge grain of salt….even some mets there…..

Move to Naples FL-earliest sunset is 5:40pm

A fave memory was the day after and being sent to see if a dam we had on the Occoquan was still stable. That thing didn’t budge one inch.