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300 hours out for the GFS is equivalent to the year 2100 for the Euro

The WCCB link thats posted in the main thread is basically going with the 0z NAM results that everyone discounted.

Fixed it for you.

If we could make free throws we'd be 18-2 or something close to that.

I don't think we should post the GFS inside 4 days; waste of time.

Yeah... saw several -10 to -15 on the Wungerground map this morning... Record at my house is -19 or -20... can't recall

I think most people can agree to this sentiment but it will never change the fact that people will weenie or deb over specific model results at range. It’s the nature of the game

MCPS is 100% going to be closed tomorrow. The real question is, do they open Monday? lol.

Im in my early 50s and have been taking notes and or keeping records since the mid 80s. I have only seen good snow growth with temps at or below ten degrees once and that was back in an event during Feb 1996. The first part of the storm began with a burst of heavy beautiful feathery dendrites but after a quick 4-5 inches it was back to poor snow growth until it was over and 8 inches lay otg.

Most have locations logged under the user name.

It's because on a cellphone you cannot see ones location u have to view their profile. On a laptop it shows location. This is NC, SC, GA, VA

That was a total broadcast met fail if I recall. Right up until gametime

We've been on the same medium range-page of late, but unfortunately, mother nature has been on a different one.

Wake will be lucky to get 2-3”. It’s becoming pretty obvious at this point. The GFS is a POS outside 48 hours and this event solidifies that. That’s the model that needs to be retired.

Got a little windy in La Crosse last evening.

Low was 3 here this morning.

Oh man I remember that one so much as a kid in Greensboro lol

Yea, winter is not over...don't mean to give that vibe. Obviously I would have liked a blizzard, but I needed a break mentally and physically.

As someone who is not a regular on the forum, I have a question. Where are the majority of you all located? I’ve gathered that it is somewhere in NC. But when I see posts saying things like “this model run was really bad” or “this one looks like a great trend for us!”, I don’t immediately know what/where/who you’re referring to.

-NAO vibes My thinking remains that this aspect will improve from here on out given the forecasted teleconnections. But. Will it be enough to outweigh the interference from the trailing shortwave. That’s the main limiting factor in my view… A few days ago I thought guidance would be in a better position at this juncture considering these factors, so I have to take ceiling way down right now outside of the cape.

Putting this in the cliff diving bc no one wants to hear it in main forum. Raleigh’s ceiling has fallen to likely an advisory or bare minimum warning level event. Think 12z Euro takes away all hope

We’ll get Feb 5-6 warmed up n ready fer ya

I make a motion that we as a board accept and understand that modeling the atmosphere given its dynamics and fluidness and wetness and dryness and butterfly farts and what not and putting that model in motion and expecting it to be spot on at any point more than 24 hours from any event for any one precise set of locations is a fool's hope and instead use the models for the tools they are to identify potential periods of unsettled weather and plan accordingly. Do I hear a second?

Yea, I had some people giving me the business about how there was strong support for a continuation of -PNA on guidance, blah, blah....well, any forecaster worth a damn doesn't blindly follow guidance. You get paid to discern when guidance is in error, so put the work in and figure it out. Well, I may not get paid for it (financially, but feeds my soul), but I did it.