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I think we are in a real spot fellas, could be bad wrong. But that’s just my opinion. .

GFS another crusher run for NC.

After the big mood letdown, I went and checked which models have been performing best at 500mb at 96-120 hours. AIFS ensembles and AIFS op hold the top 2, with EPS being a close third. Op euro in the middle of the pack, as is gefs. Op gfs at the bottom-middle, same with op cmc. AI GFS no idea - hasn’t been scored yet

Maybe we should make a thread, all other sub forums did

To me, the GFS this run actually looks a little better than 12Z. Why are people saying it's "worse"? There was almost literally nothing getting up to DC and north at 12Z, now it looks like 2-4", maybe 3-5"?

It appears the GFS is doing what it does best and is stringing out the energy and handing too much off to the east too fast. Though, it does have the main low farther west over the weekend and puts more QPF/snow farther north and west. Plenty of time to watch. Key is how fast does the SW energy eject out and can phase with the northern branch so it can attack the cold high .

Thats it while the other models came north

imma kill you

It's not "new" per se; it's just faster on both the GFS and AIGFS.

Yeah because unlike then this one has had more agreement overall. But again this is a nina so these things are more likely to happen. I just hope we get a couple more swings at it in case this doesn't work out

I unhid it haha it was too funny to hide (wasn’t me!)

Does anyone have snow maps for 18z AI GFS? Looks like it had a stout second piece of energy.

We might need to fund a vacuum in the Plains to start pulling NS vorts further south and west...maybe we'll at least get some clippers out of it.

We are in that time frame where models lose the storm or “wobble” with solutions before picking it back up. .

Would suck to have a repeat of Feb 20th.

Be interesting to see the 18z GFS ensembles.

I hope you like McDonalds instead.

Ai gfs

GFS uncooperative, but considered an outlier for the time being, especially given how it has handled this storm so far,.

NWS calling for a single-digit low of 9 in the RDU area on Sunday night. That has to be a typo, right? [Padme meme] Right?

HH GFS joins the maybe it snows in CTP party. Sorta wonky evolution, but it gets snow here.

The kicker is inevitable Mitch. We have endured 10 years of this failure my friend.

Op GFS is an outlier in how it handles the Baja low. I would discount it for now.

lol I’m on a cruise out of Miami. I got no choice but to fly back Sunday morning

the way we do things around here this winter is we wait until a few days before the storm hits and i open the thread, not tripod