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TOL +6 IJD -10 BOS +12 OWD -15

I am guessing most of those Eastern solutions are showing an elongated low with deeper pressure on the East side. The GFS OP has this feature, but the primary low on the West side

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle of these QPF amounts on the euro. One thing I mentioned to Carvers yesterday…….. how many times out of 10 things trend (and verify) east and south of modeling inside of 72 hours. My guess would be 1. Doesn’t mean Knoxville area cant work its way out of a snow, but it’s not like it’s a bad thing being on the north and west edge of guidance 36-48 hours out.

It just increased our snow just a little from 4” @ 10/1 to 80” at 10/1 [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] .

Again, we don’t want it to move that much more north than it already is.. Dry air would kill us even more .. 3-7 is perfect for me.. I actually would like to be able to get out of my neighborhood in the next week lol

I'll gladly take a central NC screw zone of 2-3 inches. Still more snow than 95% of the systems we get. WRAL first call going with 3-6 inches for central NC.

I mean, I could work with this verbatim, but can't afford any more regression today.

What’s the GFS Graphcast? .

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=AKQ&issuedby=AKQ&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Morning reading material.

13°

It’s dragging the baroclinic zone too far east and ruining any setup for our storm to dominate and come up the coast. It strings the whole thing out and it drunkenly stumbles out to sea. It’s like seeing a 6’3” 230 pound guy who’s intimidating at first until you realize he’s drunk as a skunk and he stumbles face first into a pole. Awesome potential, terrible verification. The last few winters it’s always something that ruins these setups.

-9° in my yard.

3° for a low

Winter sucks again

Can you loop the 5h map for us? Thanks !

5 with diamond dust and clear skies in Wolf this morning. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Here’s the EPS.

Also, we're looking at temps in the low 20s, or even lower during the heaviest of the precip per the 6Z EURO. As time progresses and cold advection intensifies and deepens, profiles will become increasingly supportive of snow:liquid ratios of 15-20:1 during the day Saturday.

Getting caught between the forcing of the upper low transferring to the coastal

Everybody used to laugh at me when I said the off hour runs were BS…now you see it’s true. They suck. Also as I thought back on Tuesday, that an OTS idea was the bigger worry. Cape cod could see a decent snow…the rest of us are out of it.

I know this is pulling at straws, but the 9z SREFS looking more up and in - maybe leading the charge to some better solutions lol?

Those will most likely "tick up" for the western areas. Our snow comes from the upper low as it swings south and goes negative. Eastern areas need the surface low to develop quicker for their higher totals

Looking at all the information this morning I think all of wnc with the snowfall rates will see 7-10 inches of snow with very low visibility.

I hate to say it but we’re trending to getting stuck between the ULL snow and coastal. Not good.