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Here in Carlisle, earlier this morning I dropped to a low of 7.0 degrees. This is the second consecutive night that NWS temps have been noticeably off. Yesterday morning the forecast low was for +2 degrees, and I only dropped to 8.8 degrees, creating a departure of 6.8 degrees. This morning the forecast was also for +2 degrees, creating a departure of 5.0 degrees. I think there had to be a level of wind during most of the night that put the kabosh on radiational cooling. Tonight they have forecast a low of +3 degrees with winds becoming calm much earlier in the night. So, perhaps tonight will be the night? We'll see...

February 5th to 6th 2010 picked up 23” in SE Pa

1/28 12z ICON

Can someone make an argument that will lead me to believe that I will NOT get at least 6 inches of snow in Chesapeake/VA Beach? I'm supposed to be out of town this weekend and fly back on Sunday. I really want to go on the trip, but I'm not sure, in good conscience, I can go and leave my wife and three kids to fend for themselves until I get back.

RGEM is a big hit

I've actually seen it happen. In fact, shit I don't remember which one but for the longest time after learning about convective-grid-scale feedback in undergrad studies, I just went ahead and assumed that all cold winter deep trough approaching the Gulf/adjacent SW Atlantic warm moist source would trigger that phenomenon. But, convection really early in the total synoptic evolution ... , can be real, too. The difference is whether it is on the grid intervals. That causes the low formulation .. which then escapes in the streamline downstream, taking a lot of latent heat away from the primary forcing associated with the main trough. This is less than technically everything going on but just making concept here... However, there was storm in my lore that was may 20 years ago, where I-be damned if a big plume of convection didn't erupt and gobble all the fuel away and escape seaward. I was like, 'wtf! that's supposed to be impossible' - that's when I gathered the difference between a real convection tainted event, and one that is manufactured by the models and is thus not necessarily real. It's a quasi now-cast thing in the 18 hours prior...

no recollection of 3/3/10 at all.....

That's still about 30 seconds too long

by the way, though it was rain, it was a beast of a storm and caused lots of outages here; had to move a 60th birthday party for a friend at the last second because the restaurant lost power; we found a hotel that could accommodate us at the last second.

? My core included 2 in pack already on the ground

BTW, I was wrong. 3/3/10 was a snowstorm. 3/15/10 was the big rain storm that caused 9 deaths.

We need the DGEX to vote too.

Dives down into N Alabama before working its way east. May give our GA peeps a little something

I am thinking the sooner the trough digs and tilts negative the better shot the coastal low will have to become dominant and cause both lows to consolidate further west?

Raleigh NWS forecast. FRAME IT

RGEM trying hard.. confirming with my pops @stormtracker first though to check me because I got owned last go.

RGEM looks good out to 75

Icon is still close but no cigar

A fun experiment to do on nights like these is take a temperature sensor and stick it right on the surface of the snow in an open area that radiates well. Even an older style mercury thermometer works. The air temp at standard height could be 0 degrees, and the surface of the snow might be -10 or lower. That explains why our dog is having so much trouble walking outside with the cold snow surface. We got her snow socks, which of course, she won't wear and slinks away when we try to put them on. Go figure.

Too far west. But too far east to give room for the energy to tilt and climb far enough on its own. It either needs to hang back in Montana/Idaho (ideally even further maybe) or drive into the Midwest even faster so the ULL can rotate counter clockwise around that influence, pulling it north and towards us in the process.

yup, and every cold shot now is the polar vortex.

my gut tells me this will be a va beach event not much for our area ric midlo With Duck Corolla winners

RGEM seems to be keeping the plains high location consistent with 6z. Good early signal for the run.

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