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35.9° with a few spits. Didn’t see a sign of any frozen. Low was 35.1°.

Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Graham- Including the cities of Faust 120 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations up to 4 inches, with higher amounts possible above 5000 feet. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Graham, Haywood, Madison, Mitchell, and Yancey Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

New graphic as of 5am eastern from MRX: Watches, advisories, and warnings: Some key goosies from teh overnight Disco: As such, I am highly confident there will be widespread snow showers across at least the northern half of the CWA, if not the northern two thirds of the CWA during that time. It`s entirely possible some locations could pick up an inch of snow or more - one might even say it`s likely. However, confidence in where exactly that occurs is very low. Recent ensemble data shows increasing confidence in a notable snowfall event for the Smokies, with probabilistic data giving high confidence in snowfall totals exceeding 8 inches. The evening shift updated the totals to include an 11" total for Mount LeConte area, and Newfound Gap won`t be too far behind that I don`t believe. Went ahead and upgraded the Watch to a Winter Storm Warning because of this. Additionally, there`s sufficient confidence in snowfall totals exceeding Advisory level criteria elsewhere in the east TN mountains and the higher terrain of our Virginia counties, so I added an Advisory to those areas, grabbing Monroe county on the southern end too. There`s signal in the higher resolution guidance that shows Sams Gap area along the I- 26 corridor closing in on the 5-6" range; I wouldn`t be surprised if the High Knob area in Wise county winds up with something similar. Elsewhere, other areas in the advisory should be covered just fine with the 1-4" totals. It`s highly likely that some adjustments or outright expansion of snowfall totals, areal coverage of these headlines, or both, will be needed on the day shift today.

I haven't started any subscriptions yet, so I don't have access to all the fun charts, but I pulled 0-3km CAPE and lapse rates on the RAP on the COD site from 12z Monday through about the next 20 hours CAPE: Low level lapse rates: Can we praise the sun angle for this one, lol? Euro throws out some 700 mb frontogenesis: Really helps this vort. is rolling through at what peak heating we will have. No matter how you slice it, it looks like we will have moisture, lift, and cooperative temps. Thankfully this isn't October, so we don't have that La Nina kiss of death. Euro and RGEM take the vort. right over my head in Morgan County. NAMs like TRI, SWVA and Eastern KY. GFS looks like MRX gets the overhead pass.

Not a bad look for the first snow of the season. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

1.5” from the system. Hopefully it doesn’t all melt before the lake effect kicks in.

Swain- 120 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations up to 8 inches in the Smokies. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Swain County. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

BWI: 12.9” DCA: 9.7” IAD: 15.3” RIC: 8.1” SBY: 9.8”

Chicago forecast is wow

Winner

Winter storm warning all the way down here in East Central IL for up to 10 inches lol. We’re back boys!

Are they 4 real?

From snow in your backyard to climate change, this board has taught me never to underestimate the power of confirmation bias.

So this is happening huh Need to dig in

The latest LOT AFD is insane. Apparently, this has potential to make the history books. In our lifetime, I'm struggling to recall a similar type of setup, especially so early in the season. I hope you Chicago folks enjoy!

Picked up 1.8” so far. We shall see how the rest goes. But here’s one of my cats enjoying a view as the intensity of snowfall started to increase.

BWI: 22.5 DCA: 19.1 IAD: 24.8 RIC: 13.2 Tie Breaker LYH: 18.5

Results TBD, but the early morning AFD from LOT is…quite

“Impossible travel conditions” not sure I’ve seen that wording before lol

Switch to snow was late but not denied. Surprisingly efficient at covering the ground thus far. First flakes & measurable snowfall booked Edit 1 Hour Later: This defo band is serious business. It is ripping. Complete coverage of ground and pavement. Would certainly accumulate better with more favorable antecedent conditions. But wow - exceeding my own expectations.

If this verifies, we could be looking at our first winter storm threat around or after Thanksgiving. Maybe more 40N-north. 18z GFS ensemble mean at 384hr also had a pretty strong -EPO developing. Basically, the NAO is negative for the next 15 days, then the block retrogrades to NE Canada, just when the Pacific changes to more -epo/+pna around Nov 24-25 and after. That actually creates a window for a trough to track across the US, under the -NAO ridge in NE Canada, giving us a chance for a storm to hit colder air after Thanksgiving. The H5 in the map below is good, but we probably need a few days to flush out the old slightly warmer pattern. Still a long way to go, but it's looking good for at least below average temps beyond Day-15, based on current long range models. That cross polar ridge, with a GOA trough and 50/50 trough (although both are weak) is what you want to see -- especially good ridging over Alaska. It's a winterystorm pattern, although early in the year.

Official first flakes here. Also “ greater than 3in per hour goddamn!” Hope someone here gets under a band (and shares pictures with the class of course).

0.56" of rain here.

https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude The paper by BTV NWS linked above is a fantastic overview of the role the froude number plays in orographic precipitation. When cyclonic flow sets up over the mountains, flakes are flying somewhere