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The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 2m Been showing how I take analogs and use that as a base and only change forecast once before. So Monday went out with 6-12 locally 18 DC to Boston. That means DC, BOS,NYC and ACY had base numbers of 9 inches( analogs) State College 4.5. Here is the forecast now

So close to warning snow!

Here is your back bent WF on euro. Goes from center of H7 low and curls near ack and off Chatham. Can see that on the kinks of the height lines. on the 3k Nam check out that moisture train feeding into SNE. The real mid level dynamics verbatim on this snap shot are in NJ, but that is a pure gravy train on the 3k Nam. Eventually you do get the mid level forcing, but with such a deep cutoff…that moisture train looks impressive. it’s just something I noticed. There will still be deformation bands etc.

Actually, '78 had 79 to 83 MPH Gust in Boston recorded at the time.

Honestly if the GFS comes back west at 18z I’d chalk it up to noise. If it suddenly becomes the least snowy model though and THEN its original idea of a beltway bomb comes to fruition, that would be hysterical.

I suppose I need to try and defend my title. NYC 18.8 LGA 19.4 ISP 22.5 JFK 21.0 EWR 17.4

This is true.... suppose could look at this as a positive outcome.

2 camps there. The L is in the left camp. Wonder if the spread increased from last run.

That's what it was for the metro the prior map oddly.

No that's 24 hrs

So 3-12” range still. Time to move on frin these projection back and forth examples and nowcast

EPS

Yet again the eps is a bit wetter than the op .. red flag in my opinion that op is out to lunch

This is such a weird model battle. There's no doubt that the GFS "won" by catching on to the synoptics. But it was terrible for sensible weather, first spitting out monster amounts inland and then insisting that the main part of the event was during the day on Sunday.

A little surprised there is no advisory of any kind out this way. Most of the models are honing in on the inverted trough smacking this area pretty good. But if that fails we will fail miserably out here again.

At least this was never really "our" storm with a big rug pull at the end like you describe or like the Boxing Day boning. I have little doubt that it won't top last month's for totals around here, but if we can get into a fronto band or two it could still be a lot of fun.

Sounds like a good call for Berks to Lehigh

You are correct, thanks. Another 8-10" atop what might fall Monday and Wed/Thurs and we'd have quite the pack.

Still to conservative 11-15” seems way too low

Looks like they are using the CBL (can't bust low) model.

I bet those get bumped by about an inch by the end of the day.

Yes. Blizzard Warning for Bergen county NJ. But. Fairlawn is not 30 miles NW of Manhattan.

Euro and GGEM do big west jumps and get the metro areas some coastal love as gfs shits the bed. That figures.

They gonna have to raise them up lol