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.60” on the day, lawn is Happy

I'm all for a repeat of the August autumn of 1986. Sick and tired of the endless humidity.

Big storm blowing up in Hendo.

MJO is really booking it this year. I've read WQBO can speed it up too, so that's a little interesting. But man this thing is really flying. I feel like all that's going to do is constructively interfere with this el nino more often. Seems like this would just encourage the nino to take center stage even more so. Not that it needs that..

The past couple of days, the dewpoints have been falling to the mid-60s at night and rising to 70 during the day, the reverse of the normal pattern. Getting tired of seeing 70 DPs every single day.

Yes

Above normal temperatures will persist through tomorrow. Highs will generally top out in the middle and upper 80s. Cooler air will move into the region to close of the week. As a result, the weekend and early next week will likely see highs mainly in the lower 80s. Some showers or a thundershower could precede a renewed push of cooler air late Sunday or Sunday night. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.165 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.5° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Agreed. I feel it will be a "delayed" winter but not denied in the end.

It's going to snow, or it won't, my man

I know the gentleman who created that app. It's fantastic and my go to for a quick forecast and obs check. The Premium version is pretty inexpensive as well, and you get a good amount of extras and customization.

Looks like more of a classic North and West type Winter.

Cool! How long were you there? I spent a day there while on a cruise. Did a helicopter tour up into Waimea. Pilot was sick. Top 5 tours I’ve ever done.

They're all in Morgan Run on the trees

Euro snow mean is AN.

Nice, I assume this is Kilauea? What a surreal place to visit.

Noisy storm knocked out power and Internet for a while. 2 rounds of rain today at the house.

This is the first year down in Calvert that I've seen lantern flies. Fortunately, the vast majority that I've seen have just been the leftover wings littered on my driveway. Apparently the birds find them tasty, which means I think the threat of them is somewhat overblown, luckily.

Must be an elevated dry layer amid the ambient sounding

For this winter, the long range models show an active jet stream (storm track) with above normal precipitation. I am expecting a lot of storms to track.... rain/ ice/ snow TBD. With a little luck, hopefully everyone cashes in!

Looks like I'll get nonsooned yet again.

Nah it should be on the list. He is NJ focused, and central and esp southern Jersey had a legit snowstorm(see the link I posted with snowfall reports). There were 8-10" amounts reported in SNJ. He simply missed one, which is forgivable- his site is awesome overall.

I'll try and get some pics tomorrow. That is if this if we dont get the supposed amounts being forecasted right now overnight. Another 1in+ and its gonna be Schitts creek territory. Cant believe I forgot my phone lol. Sux getting old.

Depends where you are....most likely prohibitive along the east coast, at least.

Speaking of your thoughts/expectactions lol. I noticed you've been repeatedly mentioning a warm December. Which seems a good bet based on everything from model forecasts to big support from strong nino climo. Are you going prohibitively warm/torch or just mild?