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Nothing is impossible in meteorology lol let’s see how this plays out the next couple days

Weather Next 12z run pulled from another forum:

Snowing in Chester; a decent clip at the moment.

Tbf, this jus t shows that the ceiling is still sky high and the floor is still very low.

That stinks!

The GFS uses some of its initialization data from the prior runs 6hr forecast. When I saw the 6z gfs I had a feeling 12z run would do what it did. It takes a few cycles to purge itself. I feel like the cmc ensemble mean is a very realistic outcome, but eps is highly concerning. Anyway, going forward the next time period to keep an eye on is the 5th which grew some legs on the Ai & some other ensemble means today.

Looks like Google Weathernext v2.78665 pretty well held with the upper low bringing snow, but that's about it.

It’s ULL or bust according to Wnext. Thats not an unreasonable output. Hope for a phase but an ULL can really thump in these setups. I wouldn’t expect details to be ironed out until Thursday if that’s indeed the victory path.

Any records in jeopardy at the 3 airports during this upcoming week? I was trying to find stats for consecutive hours below freezing and I saw Feb 2015 at BWI with about 140 hours below. Not sure it was a record though.

The coastal seems out of question now, this is all ULL snow

So yeah, dont trust Gemini outputs

CIPS analogs from the 12z gfs run are quite weenie'ish... lol https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F108&rundt=2026012712&map=thbCOOP72

I had it do my taxes. Says I am getting back $2 million. Looks good to me.

Apparently the Google Weathernext model went east and drier at 12z fwiw. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Can you show this on the current model map? Would be curious what pieces we actually need to change and why the GFS is showing close to a major blizzard (still escapes east 6 hours early) versus the complete miss Euro/UK solutions

Wasn't this time last week that all that snow we see on the ground was probably going to go to our south.

Yeah sounds dubious

I think something is wonky. I don’t think IP or ZR are even options with this storm. Currently at my high temp of the day of 36.3 F.

Assume errors in every AI output and factcheck the hell out of it with actual sources. I had ChatGPT flat out invent a quote and a case the other day.

Going to see some classic sublimation of the local snowpack the next few days. sunny, dry, and enough wind

Tyler Loop?

FYI that was a positive bun what are the key differences between the GFS and EURO, because it doesn't look far off at all at 500 MB.

The CRAS was another one

It can be. Just needs to tuck that vort more cleanly when it's over the Midwest. AIGFS and GFS have been doing that. EC OP too, but more erratically.

Slowly advancing south