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Looks like models have finally converged on a most likely outcome. A weak strung out wave with marginal in-situ cold air mass for I-95 west. East of the fall line can expect all rain, maybe a bit of sleet at onset. West of I-95 to rt 15 south of I-70, perhaps a coating to an inch with some mix before changing over to rain. West of 15 and north of 70 are in a good spot for 2-3” maybe even more at the higher elevations. PSU, mitchnick, and TSSN should be excited for this one. Maybe Weather Will and clskinsfan sees a couple of inches. Now for the most important question… Will I eat my shoe? Appears unlikely, but the “shoetastic” dish is definitely not off the table yet.

Did not cave. I mean its about as locked in as it can. Ignore if you must but the excuses to toss are piling up as to why.

Snow Friday?

Same. Nice storm overall, good lead into winter

Just finally registered with me that AI gets this started at like lunch time Friday! And it’s cold powder too…

can you post.

It’s not when temps are barely 0C at 925 and warm above 0C below that. At least for you and I. Maybe if it rips it will turn to a 33 Fahrenheit snow, but it’s not gonna accumulate anywhere close to 10 to one. That’s what I’m trying to say.

DCA: -2.0 NYC: -2.0 BOS: -2.0 ORD: -3.0 ATL: +1.2 IAH: +0.5 DEN: +1.0 PHX: +1.5 SEA: +0.5 DCA: 15" NYC: 21" BOS: 44" ORD: 50" DTW: 33" BUF: 100" DEN: 65" SEA: 6" BTV: 90"

All that said the ensemble run held serve or even increased amounts a bit.....so you say there is a chance??

Yeah, it's not as easily baked into the price as you would think. They do a lot of year-to-year consistency. If next year there is a -8 SLP over the Arctic June - August and Natural gas is $2.50, it would be good to go long the position for the Winter.

EPS mean bumped NW.

The Euro has nailed the last 2 events in the Upper Midwest, I'll say that much. But this is a totally different setup and area of the country.

Clown maps are obviously ridiculous. And you can think the euro is wrong. But as Bob posted. Objectively, if that verified as depicted, it’s a snow event here. Whether it’s right is a whole different discussion

I posted in September that we were getting early cool shots similar to colder winters. Just to many hints early on.

watches up

Alot of precip issues determined by timing and whether low pressure holds back long enough that antecedent cold HP is gone or runs right into it since we do not yet have a purely southern storm track. Tuesday's was the one that had a shot but only if it started early enough. This probably the case now for the first two weeks of Dec. WX/PT

EPS A-Okay

Despite JI, it finishes on the Eps like this.

Me too, although I do enjoy when Scooter is on a roll with the sardonic humor.

Not enough of a pressure gradient to drive cold air down back south

Storm total was 8.9” Any additional today I’m counting as lake effect. So far, 0.5” of lake snow. We lost about two inches to compaction so we have 7.5” on the ground currently.

I honestly hope the southeastern folks do well.

All of the models have started to reduce snow totals by at least an inch from the last run....

Anything that shows snow is invaluable in Weenieville.

First coating of the season. Steady light snow 33°.