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Nice thunderstorm here!

As always, accumulation rate = snowfall rate - melting rate, where based on experience (and some deep knowledge of heat transfer and physical chemistry phase changes) I'd guesstimate the melting rate in mid-March is about 0.2-0.3" per hour during the day (say 10 am to 4 pm) with temps around 32F, so with temps in the mid-30s, I'd expect a melting rate around 0.4-0.5"/hr on the colder surfaces, so we'd need snowfall rates around 0.5"+ per hour (0.05" QPF/hr) to see accumulation and rates just don't look to be that high, which is why I don't expect much accumulation. On the flip side, if we can get a thump of snow for an hour or so with ~1" per hour rates, that can get us ~1/2" of snow on the ground and not everyone realizes this, but once there is snow on the ground, that snow is by definition at 32F (at most), meaning subsequent snowfall is no longer melting at the rates above, which are due to a combination of elevated surface temps and elevated air temps with indirect sunlight - the elevated surface temps are a bigger factor in melting (just look at how much more snow melts as temperature increases with the same insolation level, like we saw over the past couple of weeks after the blizzard) - so I'd expect those melting rates to come down to maybe 0.1-0.2" per hour once there is accumulated snow on the ground. I've never seen anyone truly quantify these melting rates (maybe someone in some research paper has done it?), so these are at best educated guesses - would love to know what they are under various surface temp/surface type/air temp/insolation factor (vs time of day), etc. If I had gotten a PhD in meteorology instead of chemical eng'g, I could see wanting to have done research on such a thing.

Snow should fly today, but sticking and accumulating will be a whole other story. Will be cool to see after some 80° days. It’s not super uncommon. Just too marginal with warm grounds to amount to anything. Snow tv at its finest

There's a whole laundry list of "winter's over" posts from December-January by all of the usual suspects. We know they'll make similar calls this next winter or the next and will be spot on, but it's not exactly bold to be in the warm & snowless camp when that feels like an increasing majority of our winters. It's like going all in on bonds and saying I told you so when they return 4% after a year lol

0z gfs has 50” in door county lol.

… I…. How? I’m not even gonna bother looking at its evolution. That’s insanity under 24 hours out

I'm more-so in awe at the bold call at play. So you don't think the anafront snow will stick in mid 30s daytime March temperatures following an 85 degree day? Simply brazen prediction.

Atlantic City got 20" in one storm couple weeks ago lol. I kind of feel bad he has such a need for attention

Sometimes, you have to use common sense and not rely on the models. How many times have you seen snow immediately following 80 degree days? I can't think of any. If I happen to be wrong, I will personally come back here and apologize to you all. However, I know it's not going to happen, so I'm done posting on this thread because it's really unnecessary. Good night to everyone.

So all the weather models are wrong? 12 hours out? You're the type of guy that will come back on here tomorrow and say you were wrong if it does snow tho right?

Am I gonna get baited into believing in this event

Thid could be the fattest fatties of the season.

No one is saying snowstorm . Its a wave riding along the front as the cold air comes in ( Anafronts) We have seen plenty of those in the past. No one is saying this will accumulate. I do think it does on colder surfaces if we get good rates but it will most likely be white rain.

Northern Wisconsin, UP storm. Only hope is when fully sampled it shifts soft. Unlikely.

Bros a troll himself calling other people trolls. Somebody ban this guy from the mid Atlantic forum. P.S. Eagles suck .

I don't have a properly set thermometer; it's sitting on my deck. It got up to 89 today. The official temp was 87 a few miles west at Newport News Intl.

No, I'm not the one creating chaos. You're the ones doing it by causing unnecessary panic by saying there's going to be a snowstorm, when you all know it isn't going to happen. When was the last time you saw snow immediately after 80 degree days? Because I can't think of one of the top of my head. And I'm not young, I was born in 1988 and remember the 1993 snowstorm.

You only stop by this subforum when there's bad news to dump on our heads so you haven't had a chance to look around and realize that the vast majority of us are in Spring mode. We're semi-checked out. Every single one of us knows those maps won't verify. So why post them? Because it's fun. Because it passes the time until tomorrow when non-accumulating slush balls fall out of the sky. Nobody is attaching the enjoyment of their Thursday and beyond to if the GFS is correctly predicting the biggest March storm in a decade. And almost certainly, nobody here was waiting for the guy who predicted torch Winter 25-26 to tell us the GFS might be a bit off with its snowfall amounts.

Yeah RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 0833 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ATLANTA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT ATLANTA TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 82 DEGREES SET IN 1990.

54 degrees now with thunder and lighting.

First thunderstorm of the season down here. Temp is also dropping.

64/62.2 Midnight reading

I know I just went thru all my weather readings. Even farther north temps have been very warm for the date. For example That's the high and low then the dew point then the actual temp/DP spread then the average high/low then the rain so far then the sunset Indiana, PA 71/56 DP58 59/58 (44/27) 5.00 7.18Binghamton, NY 71/57 DP56 62/56 (38/22) That high and low is 33 and 35 degrees above normal!! 6.85 7.05

Thanks, Don. I agree there's a UHI component as well, but it's not impacting the trends. Whereas Phoenix has warmed at about .6F/decade since 1896, NCEI has the State of Arizona warming at about a third of that rate (0.2F/decade), so it's not like they are just using Phoenix numbers to calculate the official trends and departures. By the way, Death Valley - with a population of, checks notes, zero - has 4. But really 6, as the numbers for November & December in 1913 & 1914 are clearly erroneous. The huge surpluses were driven by implausibly high temperatures with impossibly small diurnal ranges that make zero sense in winter in Death Valley. Ignoring those months, it's 6 of 12.

seems like investors aren't biting yet. Crude flirting with $100/bbl.