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Hang in there pal. Just a newbie that needs to figure out how things roll in here.

Using a 230+ model run of the operational GFS as a means to cope with the coming torch is hilarious though, bravo there.

There might be some ppl playing hookie next week. Looking like a decent little thaw incoming.

Are you illiterate? This is straight from LOT:

Why? That would crush all of SNE

We still have a thread the needle option for PD. It's actually pretty simple...strip away the mumbo jump technical stuff and we basically need a more amplified wave that takes the perfect track. That's it. Maximize dynamic cooling with a marginal airmass, perfect track to get heavy precip without any SE flow. Too weak and its rain. Too far north and its rain. We need both the track and the amplitude of the wave to be perfect. It's not complicated...but also not likely, but we're dealing with a marginal setup so we need everything to break out way. Time to get lucky! Long range... I was optimistic 2 days ago, but that was based on the EPS/GEPS look in the long range...I was tossing the GEFS...well because...its been hot garbage for a long time. Unfortunately everything has moved towards it the last 48 hours. It's not necessarily the absolute worse look...the Atlantic is still workable...the pacific is bad but its not the absolute worse...it would only take some slight adjustments here and there to turn it into a good enough look and adjustments that are well within likely errors...but of course those errors could be the other way and it ends up a total shutout look and winter is over. We will see. We need the NAO to trend a little more negative, we need that WPO ridge to extend over the top and put some pressure on that AK vortex. Those two things would take the current look the end of Feb and make it a lot more workable.

Up to 45. Not even wearing a jacket. River ice is 11" thick. Time to go and do some stupid shit before the ice melts.

I've been very confused about this. Where has all the talk come from about muting warm ups all winter? Outside of that stretch we had in January, I don't think there's been any [realistic] signals of any "warmups". I mean I suppose you can quantify this week as a "warmup" though its still below climo. Where between January and up until now has there been any true warmups signaled? And 2m temperature anomaly maps from a few OP runs

I feel pretty good about the storm reaching us. I don't feel nearly as good about it being cold enough. The air mass leading in isn't our friend but there still is a path (narrow) to get at least some snow.

Have a system to track inside 5 days.. 12Z model summary. GFS: still a southern slider with no phasing. Heaviest precip. southeast; DC about .3 inch; temps upper 30s-40s SE. Canadian: less amped this run so not as cold; but still snow for NW burbs. Precip. 1-2 inches; 6 inches snow NW; 2 inches DC; temps mid 30s this run compared to upper 20s last run.

Next…

Yea, he'd start up installs and Gypsy moth lectures as a coping tool.

That would be great NNE gets whacked while Kev sobs giant tears and joins TeamTorch

Gloucester area has been ground-zero for hosing, too....worse than Scooter and me. Regression this year.

Had a feeling this would happen. Every single warmup since October this has happened

No complaints there.

Wow look at that downslope in E CT.

45 inches of snow the last few weeks certainly contributed to the depth in that area.

If either of these work out, this winter may creep towards hallowed ground.

Another north shore jack would be fitting too

Congrats

are you talking about this

Hey, I'll gladly take the "L" on that...hope it continues.

I don’t want to leave this board due to health but now it’s time due to this dumbass Micky. See you all, good luck with any storms hopefully snow. It’s been fun for a long time!