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Early data in for Nov showing a near avg month (on the + side). Fall was very warm. 5 & 10 yr charts shown respectively.

The cold really caught me off guard this morning after it was pretty pleasant yesterday afternoon. Wind chill of 12 on a cloudy day is pretty brutal. Also on the topic of recent winter snowfall performances, 2020-2021 was well above average for a lot of people in this thread. I lived in Conshy at the time and we had 4' but I think the cutoff was pretty sharp from NW to SE

I'm not surprised at all but this event has been a complete and total failure by the models. It's a toasty 38 here and I've racked up .30 of rain. Hrrr and nam and RRFS had only a couple hrs of rain before a changeover around 6am. I don't think even the NW stuff will be snow this afternoon. I hope my friends and family over in Eastern NC don't have the same fate!

A couple of days ago the ridge looks nice and then it disappeared yesterday and now it’s back today. Not an unusual progression on models.

thermal gradient aloft is pretty impressive so you really just a little bit of 500mb forcing

End times

Just a s/w digging enough for a light to moderate event. Simple haha. Although the flow itself is complicated with s/w’s diving SE.

Ridge got better this run so we get that nice wave on the weekend this run.

Good luck everyone! Happy for yall up north and down east. This is a good start for many of you.

Gfs completely flipped towards 6z euro Ai solution at h5. Think this is legit. Problem is the track could be too far N. Need to see it dig as far S as possible and see ridge keep improving .

No clue why some idiots are giving me weenies when the pattern supports an amplified solution. Storms can pop out of no where in this pattern.

Not saying it will happen, but with this pattern I've been waiting for something like rlthis.

Okay well the GFS has countered with its own subsequent event… I want both

It just looks so simple, right? Not waiting for phasing, this and that needs to go right before snow starts falling type deal....just some energy passing to our south and cold air in place.

GFS likes Sunday for a northern stream snow event for us.

GFS has something interesting for next Sunday

Mix of rain and snow on I85 south of Oxford

Rates starting to pick up. Measured 1.75" just now. Thus far it has been a pretty wet snow.

Gfs snowstorm this weekend Euro was also amplified at 6z. Aifs was also a hit.

nice Arctic wave. seeing the PNA get a bit better is a plus

Little something something on the gfs for the 14th.

All snow now in Lewisville

Challenge level: 10/10 Id kill for a good Miller B style storm right now. Give me that front end thump followed by a sleet fest to ensure it doesn’t melt for a week. A 2022 repeat would heal my soul.