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Always has been, even in the more "favorable" scenarios...which is why I never felt it warranted the excitement it got from some.

Late January IMO is a simpler setup. All we need is a wave to tap into the cold air and boom. It's also reassuring to see the AN precip anomalies over us and the TN valley; signals that the STJ should be more active.

Yep, nooner GFS looks like a glorified frontal passage w/ little pop. Enough still coming at us that something can sneak up on us. Nickels n dimes though. Better than 60 and sunny.

Man... What a crowd. Things do look pretty crappy for a while, but why people want to just dig in how crappy it looks and how hard it is to get snow over and over and over again. It's like beating a dead horse with a stick. Talk about insanity. Time to take a break. See you guys when there's a real threat!

This. He is more grounded, for example, on his Facebook page. He lets his tortured snow weenie soul vent here. I think maybe it’s therapy for him. I don’t mind it. Easy enough to ignore when it becomes too much. But I get why some get annoyed.

what are the chances this comes back? Percentage wise?

we should call this the panic room

GFS has some digital blue!

That’s been my favorite “window” for a while but was trying not to deb on the threats before. Besides it’s too far out to say anything other than I like the general pattern.

I don't want to live in a Trumpian world where facts don't matter. Where people pass themselves off as experts when they are amateurs. I'm tired of all the BS. I think Don is an asset to this board. If he also happens to be a statistician or a mathematician or a scientist/engineer who is intimately familiar with statistics, then I would like to know that. But the way he writes about statistics sounds to me like he has had a career/education in some kind of liberal arts field and he is an enthusiastic hobbyest. That's great. But it's also not great to mislead people into thinking you are an expert if you are not.

That is how I am rolling as well. Time of day does not help us with the first system.

Plenty to like. Starting with the 500 mb pattern. Confluence to the north and height lines oriented SW to NE, with a flattened SE ridge. Great look for the MA and folks in the SE should pay attention too. Add the +Precip anomalies from mid south-Tennesse Valley into into the MA, and colder than avg temps. I didn't even look at snow maps(no need to) when I made my earlier post about this period. Potential is there, we just need an event or 2 to actually materialize.

Schtick.

We’re a superstitious bunch.

Some of us know what a sensitivity analysis is. And for those who do not, your link is helpful. But what you present is not a sensitivity analysis. Or maybe you are withholding most of it, which should include: - which inputs you used in your analysis - how they were perturbed - how the output (mean temp) varied with those perturbations - ranking of influential variables The goal of a sensitivity analysis in to determine which variables have the biggest impact on some output... not just what is the most likely output. And if the variables, assumptions, and their tested ranges aren't included, the output is kind of meaningless.

We'll reach the half-way point of winter out here with 1" of snow. 1". And in a winter that has averaged BN temps. And on the heels of 9 consecutive BN snow winters.

I should unpin it to let the weather gods know it was a mistake and they will take pity on us and give us snow. Once i do that it will be in ma natures hands and hers are as good as AJ Browns were yesterday.

Great synopsis. Thanks.Yes I was pumped to see the 5H CLOSED S of us. Whatever made modeling move 300 miles ???

Stein ,, nothing like a Steiner pattern in the heart of winter

please explain Ji. He hasn't gotten 'there' yet in 15+ years

Here's the 132 hour cumulative total of ICON QPF ... LOL wow. this is awesome...

Horrible game. Can't even win a snowstorm either!

unsurprisingly, LES threat dead on this side of the lake and for better or worse, thurs/fri duster probably going to be one of the better winter weather events of the month

@metagraphica do you know exactly what you got on 1/28-29/22 blizzard?

I agree strongly with everything written except this. I believe these features are not causally connected. They are only loosely correlated, and always in hindsight. Besides that, the trof IS clearly sufficiently sharp for a major event. But the synoptic details (which you correctly mention) impede development in a way that would impact us locally.