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Even if you remove those outliers the cluster in the middle is not concentrated. Spread is still 5"-15" of snow

Miller C actually

With any luck weeklies are right and its Hoth until mid March

I’ll disagree with that, I got family that lives in Louisville ky and they got nammed big time but the euro won that battle up there .

So, that's the next potential period of interest?

2-4” for me with the possibility of 5” .

bro is that slang?

Winder (where I’m at) out to Athens is looking at 2-4” with the possibility of 5”. That’s a huge win for us! .

Appears I’ll be left with the unit flapping in the wind barring a bottom 9th inning Chapman fastball and a wired midget Altuve at the plate

My birthday week the climo snowiest week of the year of course.

wat

Sref is moving to other guidance Reminder this is 10:1

I think the probabilty maps on boxs site are driven by the NBM. The top 10% map looks similar to that map. Something seems off

6

Ey, i get it. Been there. We put balls on table and hedge on an outcome. Doesn’t always pan out.

We wait til Feb 4th though 10th period

Actually it’s hanging by the WPC 95th percentile map at 18z a few posts back it seems

This past weekend storm, it showed a lack in precip when compared to the globals. The actual QPF was a lot closer to what the NAM was showing 24 hrs before the storm than what any of the globals had.

https://www.weather.gov/akq/winter

I was so confident we’d at least get a few inches . But it’s hanging by a single thread admittedly

it's the worst possible setup with multiple lows, moving parts, and the shards of vorts. that was evident three? days ago I hope this hits as a BLIZZARD just to prove me wrong, though.

Definitely seems like the way we might be leaning for this winter and future weather life to come. So when do we get the AI NAM?

Removing the outliers, the sref plume shows 6 to 15 inches for rdu .

They’re the pros for a reason, I would imagine they’re thinking the surface low forms a little closer to the coast per climo and holding off on changing anything until they see otherwise. Also really high rates are going to help them. 18-1 rates only need 1/2” qpf to give rdu 9”