All Activity

At least we aren't the Mid Atlantic!

Pulling for ya. Hope it pans out! I’ll be watching the towers from here under full sun!

Kind of like ocean waves. Longer waves are kind of easy going. During the middle of winter the jet streams(polar and subtropical jet) have longer waves. As we get closer to spring, those waves tighten up and increase - amplitude and width between crests are closer. Like sets in a surfing set, they increase. Short wavelengths shake up the eroding winter pattern. Even during the worst of winters, short wavelengths can sometimes allow for winter storms. Those shorter wavelengths will often dislodge cold and produce unsettled, unstable weather. During February(sometimes end of January...might be seeing it even now), the wavelengths tighten up...I would guess the cause of that is due to warming temps and the slow retreat northward as days lengthen.

AIFS Ens trended better.

Pivotal

Hate to say it because Scooter will just mock me with his passive aggressive one word posts but that's a snow blitz. We just want that Jan 20th week to snow every year. But hey Scooter Epicosity is saved for ya know big stormy periods. But maybe soon enough there summer boy. FYI New Englands 4 seasons are the absolute best. Ski Sun Surf we have it all.

100% agree!...

My personal favorite

Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains all had highs of 41F (5.0C) today. If that holds, it would be the first time since November 21, 1998 that all six locations had identical high temperatures.

Couple nice beefy SWFEs in the extended on 18z GFS. EPS hinted at this too which is why it has been showing some snow in the 11-15 day. Would be nice to track some higher QPF systems. These less than half inch QPF events are getting brutal.

?where do you get 925 temps on 18z Euro

Yeah we do have to wait for the fast flow to slow down for larger events. One note, REGION WIDE foot plus events are relatively rare. In the 30 year low snowfall period there were 2 in 1978, 1 in 1983, 1 in 1994, 1 in 1995 and 1 in 1996. Only 3 in 20 years from 1970 to 1989. Ironically, the 1990s which were much warmer had the most. This is why I am not too worried with the current run.

Well I got almost 6 inches of rain this weekend so I must be getting buried with snow soon then right? RIGHT?!?

If we could get just a third of that this season we’ll all be above average. If not then we’re looking at yet another ratter. And at this point it’s been so bad for snow recently that it feels CC induced

Ya'll are gonna need to make sure your meds are filled for the chaos filled model madness coming this week

LOL @ who’s “confused”

pretty interesting AIFS ens for Sunday-Monday imo. Way more interested than it ever was for Thursday. GEPS really liked it too

Saw KDKA weather playing up lake effect and squalls from Wed Thru weekend. Also, the GFS looked loaded after day 10. Parade of juicy storms.

Euro is mostly rain for many. Torch at 925

More like rain

-EPO/+PNA actually leans dry, but it’s also a big dog pattern with that high-latitude blocking. With those AN precip anomalies in our region and the TN valley, I would be more inclined to think Jan 25-Feb 10 has big dog potential rather than cold and dry potential.

I like the -EPO and +PNA for down my way, but that might be too much of a good thing for some of you guys, especially the NW crew. Luckily for them it won't look anywhere near that good as the "warts" come into view as it gets closer. Pretty though.

In general I heartily agree. For every suppression risk we have 10x NW trend fails. I'm more worried about the general background state of dryness. As @NorthHillsWx had an excellent point earlier: if it can't rain even when it's warm, what makes us think it can snow? I got zilch yesterday in a warm, muggy airmass.

Odd, wasn't it? We always get pure snow every winter. Must be another Gfs error.