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After 34 consecutive days during which it was negative, the PNA went positive today (+0.173). Whether a persistent PNA+ regime develops will have important medium- and long-range implications. Following this evenings snow squall and snow showers, modestly cooler air is returning to the region. Through midweek, highs will generally reach the 40s during the daytime and 30s for lows in New York City. Somewhat colder readings are likely outside the City and in areas where strong radiational cooling takes place. After the middle of next week, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the middle and upper 20s. Some light precipitation is possible on Friday. Rain showers could transition to a period of snow. A light accumulation is possible. Additional precipitation could arrive on Sunday. No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January. Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA remains predominantly positive, as has often occurred following the breakdown of long-duration PNA- regimes. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be another day or two before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +20.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.499 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Like this?

Eps snowfall went poof at 18z vs last few runs. Rough hobby trying to predict the future.

He is a top tier HC in the league.

EC AIFS and GFS again are worlds apart…

the most exciting page of any book 10" is light blue, 20" purple, 30" red

There’s also 23-24 and 97-98 lol

Sorry. Reflecting on it now, my suggestion was probably too polarizing, and you’re right—it wouldn’t make people happy.

6 inch per hour with over 50 mph winds in that heavy yellow band that rotated off the big pnd

Riiggghhhtttt lol

Trying to make an analog set for next year, 14-15, 02-03, and 86-87 are in it.

Ugh, another interception.

The problem is most of the applicable analogs the last several years have been negative ones! So the analogs did their job...it's just we haven't had many good ones pop up

Is the mean better?

Plus Shannahan is a much for likable guy to root for compared to Sirriani

EPS has a chunk of members off PWM

In the midst of a heavy snow squall ...

If obviously the right call if you were making a bet. Still some time for other models to come around at least. Low/Non Zero chance the GEFS are sniffing out something..we'll see about the EPS

We suck at weather, yes, but if there’s any bright side to the second storm, we do have cold air around, we’ve just lost our precip. Wouldn’t be shocked to see the models moisten up a bit closer but that’s also tricky given that everything has verified drier in real time lately.

There are a lot of possible issues. Latching on to the one model with a storm is always a risky play IMO. Its day 4, you’d like to see some legit solutions

We’ll see what the EPS looks like this run. There was a ton of spread on the 12z eps so this type of solution is within the envelope.

Hard not to pull for them with all the injuries they have/have had all season.

I’m sorry brother. We found out tonight that our daughter was heavily exposed right before the weekend. Hoping for the best but preparing for the downturn.

Just totally opposite of it ensembles . Toss