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super el nino banter thread
snowman19 replied to forkyfork's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
And? Your point? You’re another one of the snow and cold obsessed weenie assholes I’m going to throughly enjoy watching squirm this winter. It’s going to be 7th Heaven trolling you and the others all winter long. Can’t wait to see your tears. Have a beautiful day -
E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Birds~69 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
1986...40th anniversary this year. Remember like yesterday. They came back from a commercial and Geraldo was like, we found a bottle...good night thanks for watching. Anticlimactic in every sense of the word. Drought guy lurking. How about this drought? -
92 stl 60 pia is just so wild to stare at in late June.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Birds~69 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
78F/DP 63F Radar looks bleak...couple scattered showers. -
On the SPC surface map its 992mb as its been for 4 hours now, currently in SE MN. The Euro had it at 989mb at this time. It'll deepen more overnight near me to 988 so I'm going from 1005 to 989 in 12 hours which of course I've never seen for June here.
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Unfortunately unable to chase tomorrow.
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Junorch obs and discussion 2026
Damage In Tolland replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
This looks like a classic pike north severe event . I’d head to ORH if I were you -
Kind of a bummer how this played out locally after much of the forecasting had IKK pretty comfortably in the warm sector.
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From 10 percent double-hatched to two percent.
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super el nino banter thread
Cobalt replied to forkyfork's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
pepperidge farm remembers -
Storm West of Bloomington IL is trying.
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Looks like things are about to kick off.
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mesos are definitely becoming a bit more intriguing with tomorrow
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A few days ago there were model forecasts of record low barometric pressures for the month of June out of the current system. Anyone know if that is verifying?
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Chase plans cancelled due to clear southward shifts in supercell tornado risk coupled with a brutal week at work. Tornadoes miss southern Wisconsin/IL north of 88 to the north in April and to the south in June? Go figure.
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Hodos are long and curved. Kevin approved.
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we've got to get some supercells quickly now in IL
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Bingo. Looks like a complete bust in all honesty, the whole area of clearing is already filling in with convection. I’ve seen the subway less packed than IL/MO
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SOI Dashboard Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 16 Jun, 2026 Average SOI for last 30 days -20.85 Average SOI for last 90 days -12.51 Daily contribution to SOI calculation -3.30 Monthly average SOI values Mar 7.59 Apr -9.88 May -13.22 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI Daily contribution Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 16 Jun 2026 1015.72 1014.90 -3.30 -20.85 -12.51 15 Jun 2026 1014.15 1014.70 -12.93 -21.65 -12.43 14 Jun 2026 1012.95 1015.20 -24.88 -21.99 -12.27 13 Jun 2026 1013.31 1016.35 -30.44 -21.77 -12.05 12 Jun 2026 1013.95 1016.80 -29.10 -21.27 -11.81 11 Jun 2026 1015.79 1016.65 -15.11 -20.72 -11.37 10 Jun 2026 1015.93 1015.45 -5.69 -20.61 -10.91 9 Jun 2026 1014.09 1014.60 -12.65 -20.73 -10.58 8 Jun 2026 1014.36 1016.70 -25.52 -20.24 -10.22 7 Jun 2026 1014.05 1017.70 -34.73 -19.19 -9.71 6 Jun 2026 1013.94 1016.55 -27.42 -18.06 -9.05 5 Jun 2026 1012.20 1015.15 -29.81 -17.33 -8.44 4 Jun 2026 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -16.43 -7.77 3 Jun 2026 1010.14 1013.80 -34.80 -15.47 -7.10 2 Jun 2026 1012.48 1015.05 -27.13 -14.79 -6.56 1 Jun 2026 1013.74 1014.85 -16.87 -
- 164 replies
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- we got burned
- rugpull central
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Some changes as we move towards the third week of June.
- 164 replies
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- we got burned
- rugpull central
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Tropical downpour and constant lightning in this band moving through. Nice to get a little garden variety action.
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Junorch obs and discussion 2026
Damage In Tolland replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Seems like a pretty solid Stein south of 90. Maybe a shower in the morning . Monday trended south on GFS -
Definitely has the feel of an underperformer today. Seems like stuff already popping for 2nd round. We need more time to recover. But shear is stupid so something will probably happen on boundary.
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After another week without rain I cant imagine tomorrow’s drought update will be very pretty for NC
