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Agree, could be both at play AIs are fuzzy/probabilistic at H5 (potentially a weakness or a strength depending on context), but here's a comparison of 12z runs today, for Monday 0z timepoint... AIGFS does have significantly better tilt that could be responsible for northwest extent of QPF... and it also seems to have an overdone spread of QPF (also to eastern extent) in comparison to legacy GFS:

absolutely. Im in one of those areas. But most people in this forum are getting zero accumulating snow. And then we read about bad models. No. Just wishcasting. First storm is an elevation storm. Second storm is in the same spot it has been for days. Offshore.

I’m thinking maybe a Weedwhacker or edging tool this weekend.

I’m out in ellinwood white land so I would disagree

Desperate times call for desperate measures, the RRFS is much farther west gets accumulating snow to river close to warning SEMASS

1-2” would make me ecstatic.

Out of time for what?

1-2’’ from an inverted dong would be a fitting outcome for this “threat”.

It doesn’t have to mean that, but it’s often a good sign in that if we get the vort a little better, we’d prob see a fast bump west on main precip shield. You get the IVT because while the thermal gradient is being shunted too far east (usually because WCB is too weak), we’re getting good dPVA which wants to drop the pressure at the sfc. The goal is get that to line up witn the thermal gradient and then we’d be in sync.

for 1-2 inches of snow lol

NYC will have 0 accumulating snow this weekend. Some light white rain tomorrow and maybe a dusting from the whiff on Sunday. we’re out of time

Remember folks, verifications show that AI has its greatest value beyond 4 days. I suspect the physics-based models will win and win big here.

Could that IVT be a precursor to a jump west next cycle by the NAM? Almost like not knowing where to put the low..so that’s the intermediate solution?

Yea temps Sunday way too warm. The threat is cooked, has been for days

These AI models getting folks hope up are not proven either....

Ray will be excited that he gets IVT snow on the 18z NAM

Guess he wanted Octobers off. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

temps are marginal sunday and the precip off the coast is only .1 or .2--the heaviest is well east of that. Verbatim that's more white rain

This needs to shift west about 20 miles.

I meant the outcome. It's getting really close to the event to hope for additional noteworthy shifts, but I guess anything is possible.

except the tragedy of Zippo white

Nammy bumping up in places, esp 3km

Nothing sadder than the Ellinwood gray

Lol I know right

Oh boy...models might be coughing up a furball on this one, lol