All Activity

Was 12 when I left the house in Fallston at 8 am.

My experience says in this winter setup my high is 53

whoops...that should have just said Long Island...not the sound lol. Long Island had a nice little hit from the storm. But I guess looking deeper...it will be difficult to prevent temps/dews from climbing into the lower 50's though I am curious to see how far north we can get those. Could struggle to get the warm front to lift much past the Pike. If that sfc low either trends a bit farther southeast or a weak wave develops along the front...the warm sector would get squashed a bit. Probably would see a funny shaped front

ORD anomaly for 1st to 15th is -11.3 F.

Carver, I hope we can get the ao negative at some point this winter for a little extended time. Especially the epo. For a little while also

Jeez, I've been out of town...but what happened up there?

I remember awhile back the wx service out of Nashville wrote how a -AO meant cold for these parts.

NOUS41 KOKX 161406 PNSOKX Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 0906 AM EST Tue Dec 16 2025 ...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY TRANSITIONING TO A NEW FORMAT FOR THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION BEGINNING JAN 7 2026... Beginning with the afternoon issuance on January 7th 2026, the National Weather Service New York, NY Forecast Office will transition to a Key Message format for the Area Forecast Discussion (AFDOKX). This strategic change aligns the Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) with an impacts-first message philosophy, enabling our office to streamline communication and reduce redundancy. This transition moves away from a strictly chronological layout to focus immediately on potential weather impacts and hazards. By prioritizing Key Messages, we aim to enhance clarity and eliminate duplication within the Area Forecast Discussion. A side-by-side comparison of the old format and the new format templates can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/newAFD The latest local AFD can be found at the following link: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=okx&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD For any questions, please contact: Nelson Vaz Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service New York NY [email protected]

You will have a snowpack left. Quick hitting, Shorter duration system, 1" or less qpf, There will still be snow left, The pack out there can absorb this, But the bigger story is going to be the wind gust ahead of the FROPA.

Yeah I’d put Friday's system as narrowly into Grinch territory. Usually they happen closer to Xmas but if it’s 6 days out that is prob close enough. At least we have a shot at redemption though. It would be nice to get 2 in a row after we weaseled a decent snow event before Xmas last year.

Wonder if THV was ever national low?

If this incoming ridge pattern was in June or July, it would be a ridge rider pattern with MCS's every night. Good thing it's *checks notes* the week of Christmas.

I obviously missed what happened, but no matter...happy that @paweatheris back. Wishin you all the best.

Good thing that’s been our bread and butter for years now. I’d say it’s anything that rains or wipes the pack within 5-7 days of Christmas…but This 100%. If it rains but then we snow, the Grinch is either defeated or if it’s in the same storm (rain to snow) then it grew a heart.

I saw 4 on digi car thermo between Manheim and Etown. 10 at my house. skiff of snow all we had last night. Trainer sucked it all outta the clouds on the way east.

THV hit -1. National low was only -8 at Presque Isle, ME.

Open those windows Fri morning and let the dews in.

For records sake, the anomaly at Madison the first half of the month was -12.6 (!). We will see what it actually ends up being by the end of the month.

What will be higher? Your max temp or gust?

I used the top of my deck table which was in a good spot. Easy to measure like you said.

https://twitter.com/bostonwxconsult/status/2000911081170956622?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I got 9+ on the grass too. The 3 boards were all the same at 7.6. it's cool how consistent they were with no wind...easy measurement. There's no consistency on the lawn.

the NAM hints at that potential but it has a little pocket of steeper lapse rates and some higher MUCAPE. The NAM I think can often overdo those in these setups but its not unheard of to get some thunder/lightning with these, especially towards the outer Cape/Islands.

One that does not populate the weather map. A subtle over-running of warm air on the northwest flank of departing high pressure.