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I think those who were saying less amp called it, and gfs took a step in that direction. Not saying its gonna snow, its too warm for the lowlands. Still thinking coating to 2” slop far NW of fall line.

Told ya what? It's looking more like the Euro now. It definitely shifted more south.

Ah, I have noted in the past Louisburg is one of those "typical outlying cold spots" often mentioned in the RAY AFD. What is it about the geography to that gives such good radiational cooling?

That was a trend better for SNE than previous runs. Still warmish but it at least holds snow for longer…gives you maybe advisory snows instead of a quick coating.

I agree completely with all of your comments/assessments you've posted. The only thing I would sorta challenge is that his thoughts for Tuesday were for the entire LSV and not Lanco-specific. Let's hope this doesn't trend north as he fears it will.

Whatever model shows rain is the one to bet on. Weenie Handbook, page 5.

Not really seeing "rains to Maine" on that GFS run except for extreme coast.

Yep, really cranking nicely right now.

Heavier rates along the Mass Pike might be enough to pump enough moisture higher up into the DGZ and get better growth going

Got down to 22.1 last night and below freezing much of the night.

It’s not developing the 850-925 lows as quickly as those colder looks. It just keeps everything ripping out of the south. At 78h, it has a closed 925 low off Delmarva but it’s due south winds here. Zero turning of the winds early on. Euro has a closed low off Delmarva at 925 with winds almost out of due east.

I will check when I get home this evening.

He sure did. He's also been off on some of our recent rain events as well. His "strength" as a seasoned met is understanding that while pretty snow maps are fun to look at...in reality, they are flawed and often highly inaccurate.

Hard not to be optimistic about an overachiever here with the hi-res models showing no snow until noon, yet we’ve had parachutes falling for several hours and between 0.5”-1” down. Very high ratio stuff

That’s definitely a better look for Worcester verbatim compared to previous GFS runs

Yes please!

Everytime I think I am out, they pull me back in!

it's early-december. if this storm were in january it would be 30 and snow

yeah 700mb is quite warm. snow growth would be pathetic except perhaps towards SNH or so and just north

Told ya .

Three years I’ve been hoping for that and all I have are watching dendrites melting 400 feet above me.

Good hit up our way still.

Don't stare at it too long, lol

Still pretty warm llvls for a lot of SNE. Def a tick cooler though.