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Bone chilling cold and sh*t brown grass this week. I always love that combination, but it's definitely better with strong wind gusts added in for good measure.

Facts. That was like getting knee capped in church.

That is good. Ground will freeze less and more slowly?

UK also says no thanks....it would've been nice to get any model on board with the Euro.

Solid 6" here in Gardner. I don't see much meltoff coming either as the next cold front rolls in.

It's been a time to forget since we beat Houston.

Something I've been trying to watch with this storm is the initial energy phasing between the NS and the low off Mexico and how that impacts the ability for downstream cyclogenesis. Though being honest that analysis starts to stretch the limit of my understanding. Generally I've assumed we want the low off Mexico to be further North and East (and more energetic) in order to feed energy and get fully captured by the NS shortwave though I'd like to know your read on it as I could also see a possibility where that Mexican low destructively interferes by not getting cleanly absorbed eastward.

Dammit now we have to hear about how its never gonna snow again until it snows again....

Those are the means and medians for the subset of dates shown, not 1991-2020 or the period of record.

When you consider when I published, it absolutely was. The precip type was modeled as excessively white for my area on Sunday night. As far as underperforming in the snow area, if you mean relative to clown maps...sure. But I would argue that was better modeled than the warm layer given that snow growth was consistently modeled as inferior..that is always red flag against heavier totals.

I planted a bunch of young pawpaw trees this fall. I’d love to keep pack now through March for the extra insulation. 29° right now but 36° and 37° on the 4” and 8” soil sensors.

The March 6 2013 "storm" was the most painful bust especially coming off the terrible 11/12 and 12/13 winters.

Nice HP, too nice. Lol

Could easily be Bills Mafia slammed through the tables like last 4 years.

The CMC looks a lot closer for the Monday potential, as in it is not completely out to sea anymore

It could certainly be wrong, but I think the latest RAP has a pretty good idea of precip. types based on terrain and location: Again, it is still ~40+ hours away and could be wrong, but that is what I would expect in this sort of set up. Def. glad it is coming through after dark.

It's far enough out that making that kind of determination is risky. I will say this...if the northern stream is very close to what is being depicted right now...its a threat for the southern mid atlantic. If the northern stream were to relax some or that wave were to get ahead more and out of the way...it becomes a threat for our area perhaps...but would still have a cap to how far north it could make it...and my biggest fear would still be a fringe, if the northern stream wave were to be further behind...and possibly phase...that would open the door to a coastal climbing system that could threaten further north. I have no read on this, I've not had time to really dig in more than some superficial analysis... so I am not going to pretend to have any insight into which way it's more likely to go.

The 12z CMC is also trying to pop a coastal. As is, it would create light frozen precip/mix for the 8-9th. NC would stand the best chance with the CMC setup, and those folks have not had a lot of snow in recent years. Good for them if so. If that is a real slp, look for it to maybe continue to trend northwest. A lot on the table at 12z...nothing big at this time, but fun to track for this early in the season. It is important to note that the GFS can be a bit progressive in these setups. I would expect it to be on the SE envelope of options at this range for the 8-9th.

It was perfectly executed cause as much harm as possible by having the Saturday 12z GFS finally cave to a snowstorm so for exactly one run we had all models showing a major storm. Masterful ragebait I gotta hand it to the atmosphere on that one.

All day snows that start 1st thing in the morning are rare and awesome. Great first storm and hopefully a good omen.

The last 5 years or so most vanished. Prior to that they’d happen . Time to turn the tables

Natural gas is now near $5, which is the highest in nearly 4 years. NG generally is highest in winter when the E US, especially NE and Midwest, is forecasted to be colder than normal.

Is this more a Mid-Atlantic threat in your opinion or Northeast too?