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  2. Weather Will
    EURO is cooler this run compared to July. WB maps below compare January temp forecast in July compared to latest August run...
  3. CoastalWx
    Oh momma, wtf are you singing?
  4. aldie 22
    0.84 pretty healthy surprise this morning.
  5. wx_observer
    Wow, what breathtaking view!
  6. GATECH
    .91 today, total for first 5 days of August 3.5” Yet somehow all my grass in the backyard has died. Weakened by the heat then some fungus probably killed it when too wet
  7. George001
    Yeah I was initially thinking “We just had a super Nino 3 years ago, it won’t happen again”…. But then I looked at the subsurface and saw it was near +2 in early spring. 2023-2024 was kind of a weird year, I initially thought warm and snowless because the Nino was too strong, but then looking back this year when I was digging though previous super ninos to prepare for this winter, I realized I was kind of right by luck, and missed the bigger picture. Bluewave had a really good handle on what was going on that year, he basically argued we would see both Nino and Nina like influences that would combine to produce an especially shitty winter in the east, and ended up nailing it.
  8. Malacka11
    Wanted to share this too, a severe warned storm from the top of some decent sized hill near Athens. Saw a power flash actually, but idk how strong of winds it takes to blow something around there compared to here. All I know is the winds hit absolutely crazy up there. Was terrified of lightning but that never became an issue, rolled through in <30 minutes
  9. weatherCCB
    0.43” here
  10. Weather Will
    WB EURO August seasonal maps. (Dec. thru Feb.)
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, we will learn a lot this year...the earth wants ENSO to couple with the mid latitudes because it's that coupling that represents the most proficient avenue for the redistribution of all of that heat...this unprecedented ENSO is the planet's best attempt at bridging that gap in the face of mounting anthropogenic resistance. The only entity that desires the eradication of the west warm pool more than east coast snow enthusiasts is mother nature.
  12. LakePaste25
    My thing is, if the most record breaking El Niño of my life (and potentially by a huge margin) doesn’t do the job, then the climate system has been messed up to the point where we’ve lost a major predictability factor in ENSO. It’s possible. But I hope not.
  13. Interstate
    .56 so far here in 21057
  14. bluewave
    The overall SST pattern and forecast SST pattern looks different from 1997-1998. That event had a much stronger cold pool in the WPAC into Nino 4 and 3.4 regions during the same time in 1998 than the current forecasts for early into mid 2027. Plus the La Ninas following 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 weren’t particularly strong. But we’ll see how things go since it’s still early in the process.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it's late at this point....my hedge was that it will certainly couple more than 2023, perhaps along the lines of 2015, but I still doubt whether 1997 is walking through that door.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    I'm seeing more and more of the "EF-0 tornadoes aren't bad and don't need warnings". Couldn't disagree more: EF-0 tornadoes damage houses, cars, and are a direct danger to people outside. I would make the argument that we should work to shrink the size of polygons and keep warnings to less than 30 minutes, those would narrow the impact, especially in more marginal environments.
  17. MillvilleWx
    I think the common theme, no matter the model run, is the prospects of a wetter winter than we've had in a long time. Honestly, that is a welcomed sight. Yes, we will probably have a bunch of very cold rain prospects considering the strength of the Nino and historical precedence. That said, timing a couple solid cold shots during the peak of winter (Jan-Feb) could easily get us a chance to score with some big daddy potential lurking considering the southern stream jet likely much more involved compared to what we see in a Nina. I'm still favoring a wet fall and winter with probably a low-end threat for winter in December, picking up as we move into peak climo. I also wouldn't be surprised if we get skunked in full, so tampering expectations. I'm genuinely excited just to have precipitation returning. I'd rather have precip so we can green things up for next spring and summer and not have the desolate brown we've been accustomed to for much of the past decade.
  18. LakePaste25
    I get the reluctance for some to take a “wait and see” approach to see if the NH actually couples. But at the same time, just make a call. I think it’ll couple, and couple well. Sure, we can count on a less expansive area of below normal anomalies than the 1983 Aleutian Low due to warming. It is what it is. But otherwise it’ll couple in the NH and if i’m wrong i’m wrong.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this is why I was originally reluctant to accept the super-idea...but when I did my deep dive on the polar considerations a couple of weeks ago, I really considered everything from a solar perspective and it's really the 2023-2024 strong event that was the outlier....not this event. That is the one that "didn't fit".
  20. TriPol
    What a time to be alive. And if this leads to a historic, record breaking Super La Nina, I'm even more all in.
  21. JTA66
    Light showers moving through, just enough to jack the DP again. 71F/DP 68F
  22. bluewave
    Getting a lower end super El Niño and an all-time record breaker only three years apart is a first for our modern climate era.
  23. WxUSAF
    New euro seasonal out. Waiting to see some more maps posted. All I’ve seen so far peaks the giga-Nino at +4C and has the east coast very wet.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is there anyone left debating the super Nino outcome? It already is I gave that up in March.
  25. MillvilleWx
    1.12" from this batch at my place. Rain looks to be ending according to radar with maybe some light stuff lingering. Since June 1st, looking at over 11" of rainfall (11.64") according to local PWS very close to my residence. It's not astronomical by any means, but better than a pure drought.
  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    You just described 75% of social media.
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