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Ukmet sometimes runs too warm at the surface.

His last post looks like he said he was going to bed because this was becoming hazardous to his health

At this point, yeah. 6z Euro bumped north again.

The Ukie gets Baltimore over 32 degrees and all other models have a max of 25.

FYI if anyone didn’t notice. It looks like the top subset of members is for GEFS. Bottom subset is EPS members.

All metro lines are in the area (Metro Center/Gallery) - 915 F St. NW, Washington DC, 20004

If we’re going to see a south shift it needs to happen soon.

Looking at the 3 hour qpf panels on the Euro for Sunday morning It's absolutely weather porn. @bncho your to young to look lol. Between 7am and noon theres 2- 3 " an hour rates and thats with 6" + amounts on the ground already.

Stronger High Pressure over Montana (1039) has positive downstream effects on 6z Euro. See a small shift south from 0z. Bleeding hopefully has stopped maybe a trend south again?

We can always remember how all guidance had its failure. But when I compared that map to the 6z Eps, it's surprisingly similar and 850 temps are as close to identical as 2 different ensembles can be. So Srefs aren't perfect, but not worth discarding completely imho.

Do you have a location for that?

Always scares me. I have PTSD from a storm about 6/7yrs ago that was looking to slam the Valley. Run after run. It got sampling and fresh data in an 0z suite and all of the sudden the models changed drastically and are 10in snow ended up being like 3in lol

I think with that Euro setup as is...it is going to try to split those two highs and head for the Lakes. What I can't know for sure is if the Euro is trending back stronger w/ the hp to the Northwest. The differences, even after that slide, grow pretty massively. The GFS is just weaker (but trending stronger) w/ the STJ pulse. I would really, really like to know which models got the bulk of the hurricane date overnight, and if one model didn't get it. To me the hp differences in the Plains look like a data error or absence of it...I just don't know which model is handling that hp over the Plains correctly. That feature is drastically affecting the overall synoptics of the storm.

From Mt. Holly: KEY MESSAGE 3...Confidence continues to increase the area will be affected by an impactful winter storm beginning Saturday night and potentially lasting all the way into Monday. Portions of the area are likely to see moderate to heavy snowfall but there remains uncertainty on where the heaviest amounts will fall. Low pressure will begin organizing itself near the Texas Gulf coast Saturday. This will occur as several pieces of upper level energy dive southward into the base of the persistent long wave trough dominating over the CONUS. Saturday night into Sunday these pieces of upper level energy will to at least some degree "phase" with one another helping to drive deepening surface low pressure through the southeastern states then north and east towards roughly around the Virginia coast by late Sunday. Forecast guidance has continued to trend northward with the placement and the track of the low due to better phasing of upper level energy as just noted. However there continues to be some uncertainty regarding more specific details and this will ultimately affect the storms track, speed, and strength. This will impact where the heaviest precip falls along with precip types. Nevertheless, confidence has grown that much of the area has a good chance of seeing moderate to even heavy snowfall totals with this system. The NBM probabilities of 6+ inches with this storm now range from around 60 percent over the southern Poconos to the 80 to 90 percent range near and south of the urban corridor. Guidance is also in good general agreement that total QPF amounts with the system have the potential to be 1+ inches in many areas. The main challenge is again, the track of the low which determines who gets the heaviest precip and if we actually get into any mixing limiting snow amounts. The GFS has trended north putting much of the area in the "sweet spot" for very heavy snow amounts. However the GEM and ECMWF have trended north as well and now track the low close enough to Delmarva that mixing may occur at the height of the storm late Sunday. Regardless, expect snow to most likely start breaking out over the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. All areas look to certainly be cold enough initially to see all snow. In fact lows Saturday night look to once again be down into the single numbers north with teens to around 20 farther south. Heading into the day Sunday, expect snow will be continuing across the area and may fall heavy at times along with NE winds starting to increase, especially along the coast. Late day Sunday into Sunday night is when southern portions of the CWA (mainly Delmarva into adjacent portion of south Jersey but potentially as far north as Philly) could see some mixing if the low takes a close enough track to the area. However given the strong artic high and antecedent cold airmass in place, plain rain looks less likely than a mix with or change to sleet and freezing rain if any mixing does in fact occur. If this mixing does occur for a time, a change back to all snow is likely later Sunday night into early Monday before precip winds down across the area into Monday. As already mentioned, a lot of uncertainty remains regarding total snow amounts. 24 hours ago this looked like more of a question of a near "miss" to the south vs. a big snowstorm. Now it`s looking like a more or less a lock that this storm will affect the area with significant precip with the question then shifting to whether the track actually gets too far north to bring a mix or changeover into the area. If this occurs, the very heaviest snow amounts may end up near or even north of the urban corridor vs coastal and southern portions of the area. We say this while stressing the fact that the very heaviest snow amounts within these type of large systems are still often only 100 miles wide or less. S/E of the snowfall max you get ice or rain vs. N/W precip amounts are lighter. For this reason, it will still take at least a couple more forecast cycles to have a clearer idea on the details of where any "blockbuster" snow amounts could occur within our County Warning area.

The 6z euro was further south so the north trend on this model stopped for now.

I do see that. I may be in trouble but 6z Euro was slightly better in that regard vs 0z. Wouldn't be surprised in either direction at 12z

I doubt this will be an all rain storm for your area. Too much cold air in front.

Toggling the Euro OP since 6z yesterday it had 3 straight runs of north trend then 6z trended back south a bit, PERHAPS we've seen the high water mark of the amplification trends.

Euro overnight flip is upsetting but game not over. GFS still looks strong, need cold northern air to tush push into the endzone for us in NC.

People still use these? I remember the one storm last year showed us getting 15-18” like 24hrs out and we got 7” lol

Let's hope that's not correct. Too much of a good thing.

Crystal ball seems to be working .

Wrong take. Anyway….I said my piece. We watch 12z

From a map makers POV, agreed.

You’d think it would prefer to head on up the coast. I also think it’s worth nothing Carver that the Euro is probably overestimating the strength of the Baja low as well. .