All Activity
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The eps ensembles took a severe snow map Hit last night
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Improvement with the sharpness and orientation of the UL energy and surface low development location over the last few runs on the GFS. EURO trending the same way but surface low development is a bit further offshore
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
dryslot replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Go find other things to do for christ sakes. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Hang in there....I don't think it will stay boring. Sunday night will probably be mainly east of you, admittedly, but it's going to get active. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
anotherman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I have never seen this degree of uncertainty with the models. Big changes can happen, even within 72 hours. No way to know what late January will be like at this point. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Damage In Tolland replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I just hate when there’s nothing to track or get me weather excited and look forward to -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Blizzard of 93 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
After reviewing the overnight models, there is still a lot of uncertainty for the period from late tonight through Monday am. There are a few northern stream systems dropping down into our region, but impacts appear to just be minor to possibly nothing at this time. We will need to keep tracking to see if any of these minor systems over the next few days can get their act together to produce a widespread light snow event. If not, the period from later next week & beyond looks more active with Winter storm chances through the end of January. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
dryslot replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
We know you do........ -
Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Chicago WX replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Extended looks good to me. To varying degrees, op runs have shown an overrunning type set up somewhere in the region. Obviously the biblical 18z GFS isn't happening, but the EPS and GEFS have been flagging that period (around Jan 23-?) for something to move through. One piece, two pieces...who knows at this point. I mean its our best shot at something other than northern stream dusters. First shot all winter really. And it certainly looks cold in the medium/extended range as well. Seems like it may be a bookend winter. Fast start, then zzzzz, and top it off with a good finish. -
6z GEFS and EPS look very similar
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Damage In Tolland replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Absolutely not . That will be very wrong front comes thru early/ mid morning -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
CoastalWx replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Nope. You’ll be 45-50 through noon. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
CoastalWx replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
55 in reach today. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Damage In Tolland replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Tomorrow ? It drops all day with snow showers . Your area front drags -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
CoastalWx replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Tomorrow is mild until mid aftn -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
CoastalWx replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
50 for high -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I hate the cold without snow, but I do long for one of those days when I was kid...temp would be dropping through the single digits during the afternoon and be zero by nightfall. We used to get those more in the 80s... -
January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread
Holston_River_Rambler replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Sorry if that was a lot, but what I was trying to say was that there is a very outside chance of an extra wave on Sunday. Also, to John's point about : If I saw this satellite without any other context, I would think someone in TN of the MA was about to get a decent snow: The dry slot from central MS and AL to the Cumberland Plateau is a little concerning, but still those are some colder cloud tops in the baroclinic leaf. -
Bet the streak till it’s over. .
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Damage In Tolland replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Tomorrow drops into the 20’s -
Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026
gamecockinupstateSC replied to BooneWX's topic in Southeastern States
Euro with another coastal hit. NW trend apparent, though. Energy continues to back more SW. If this turns into a rain event, ugh. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
mahantango#1 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
ABC27 said basically they are taking snow out of their forecast for the overnight hours tonight. Didn't even mention possible icy roads tomorrow morning. Nws on the other hand issued a HWO for possible slippery travel overnight and early tomorrow morning. I have a Dr. appoint in Camphill @7:30am tomorrow and i'm on the fence of canceling it, because of possible icy roads. And being about 40 miles from the place where my appointment is scheduled for, forecast matters. And I doubt Penndot will do anything until there is icy conditions or accidents, in my neck of the woods. Maybe I'm overthinking this. Maybe the possible icy conditions will not exist tomorrow morning. -
I mean I would say it could trend NW, but when you are on a losing streak you don't expect to make the next shot or for the line drive to fine grass. That's where we are.
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Buckle up boys! This weekend is going to f****** suck!!
