All Activity

CMC still kind of meh compared to.others.. state shut down for weeks by Friday is the GFS is right though?

Gfs got us here, but time to lean into the nam, rap, hrrr etc for details. For 48 hours, model after model to some degree is zoning in on Monmouth, ocean county, middlesex nj. Thats the jackpot. The rest of us can suffer with our 12-18. What a ride this winter. Glad it’s back. .

Mike Wankum eased their fears

I’d roll the dice with that look…potent

I think ORH is in as good as a position as anywhere for a great band or two. I’d expect something like 15-25” for a forecast there. 1-2 feet at minimum and you could make a case for Ray’s 18-30”. Being on the east side of the spine there will be an advantage in this storm. It sort of “protects” them a bit more from the dry air intrsution that could try and sneak down the CT valley if you get a situation like Jan 2015 where the real meat of the CCB is a bit east.

After browbeating anyone who dared suggest a storm for the northern MA.

Nice look with the 20" number in NEPA. Offers some credibility on solid amounts getting into NWNJ.

Looks pretty similar to the NAM...

A cross between 12/26/2010 and 1/28-29/2022 seems the most likely solution.

Tick deeper h5 and maybe a tick negative or the same. Surface low is pretty much the same.

Ya there's not a mob of people yet! I bet by later today people freak.. btw GFS has another 18 to 24 for some Thursday night and friday

Ah ok, thanks for the explanation! Sounds like the teleconnection indices mask a lot of smaller-scale features and don't necessarily tell the whole story.

Solidly driving very heavy amounts well into the Catskills FWIW.

Ukie looks good, coming into alignment here. This would honestly be my "base" snow map as far as spatial coverage of heaviest snows

Just touched on it above, it’s best run thus far. H5 was a nice improvement.

It's not that bad because shorter wavelengths give us a favorable H5 low in the Gulf of Alaska. Our biggest snowstorms historically have that -H5 anomaly

Updated with UKMET

Well he certainly changed his tune!

Looks like the real McCoy to me for you folks on the Eastern Shore:

Solid event backend. Even OES at the end on the S Shore.

Nobody mentioned ggem? Notable west jump vs 0z. Very nice for most of our sub.

43.8 we’ve had some big storms after a warm day

Feels like people still have no idea this is coming. Last storm the grocery stores in Boston were overrun the day before. Today they were no busier than usual.

It’s a +pna and a decaying -nao into Hudson Bay. Pretty standard storm setup. It’s just the loading pattern before could not get a fresh airmass