All Activity

Step out week ... More apt to call it a 'leap' actually wrt to seasonal migration occurs later this next week in all three popular operational versions. The ambient non hydrostatic heights are ending up elevated, post trough transits. This was not as coherent in prior weeks so I'm considering this significant move. And it doesn't take till the 20th of the month either. The modulation actually begins 13th..15th.

Yup. It's getting quite old... And yet ANOTHER semi crappy weekend day today. Chilly, damp and drizzly.

Ugh

I can only hope

rain coming in a little sooner then expected this morning..

Is it possible that May will be cooler than April?

When does construction of the bear run begin?

50 degrees and rain. .10” today so far. kicking around firing up the coal stove again. Supposed to be in the 30’s Monday morning. NWS on daily description: Rain then rain likely

Agree. We are very likely to be into a super El Niño (over +2.0C) by September, if not August

Nice morning. We sun for now.

Low of 53. Looks like the rain should hold off just enough to get in our son’s 9am baseball game.

Nice hot pattern shown there. You really are struggling

AN heights and BN precip. Sweet.

yea i closed that gap of 36-48 from the last update on March 2nd. There was nothing under 48" from cocorahs stations but if you're right at 48 thats probably a min nearly statewide except for the cape/ACK

I wish there were some spotters in the upper elbow. It would help me know what to do there when there is a tight gradient. I rarely, if ever, see reports from Provincetown...

Summer of 1816 incoming.

Another windy ass day on tap

Dandelions are blooming. Making sure I let them flower and spread their seed this year like tblizz.

Hope everyone is doing well in these dry conditions. I'm about to head out for the annual camping trip to the southwest and was reading the ABQ forecast discussion. It was informative (mostly in the short term), but also kind of funny (mostly in the long term), so I thought I'd share .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 107 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026 Day 1 Saturday: It is May so that means virga "bomb" season in New Mexico. Virga being rain that evaporates from a thunderstorm before reaching the ground. The rain cooled air still does reach the ground causing a dry microburst hence the "bomb" term. Today looks to be a decent set up for that to occur over the northern mountains into the northeast Highlands. Isolated activity should develop over the central RGV and then back over the Gila Forest as well. Instability (CAPE) looks rather limited with weak "moisture" over the state within increasing NW flow aloft. Storms will be moving pretty quickly as well so any convection could produce a quick microburst with winds most likely not reaching severe levels due to lack of CAPE and downdraft CAPE (DCAPE). Impacts from the gusty winds will be pretty minor and limited to the typical blowing dust and displaced trampoline or bouncy house. Day 2 Sunday: The downburst potential increases more on Sunday with a much more supportive upper level pattern. A fast moving short wave trough passes through northern NM on Sunday increasing the NW flow aloft and cooling aloft. Lapse rates steepen quite a bit more by early afternoon and supportive of CAPE around 400-800 J/kg and DCAPE around 600 J/kg. Deep layer shear increases to 30-40 kts especially from the Highlands south towards SE NM and in phase with the instability. HREF hints at a least small chance (<10%) of CAPE reaching 1000 J/kg in a few spots in E NM. Should the models be under forecasting CAPE then maybe there is support for a marginal severe weather risk for damaging winds. More than likely storms produce wind gusts closer to 50 mph than 60 mph. The main impacts from these kinds of winds will again be blowing dust but could damage weak structures and toss trampolines. Hi-res CAMs and synoptic models all have a pretty clear signal for convection developing in the Las Vegas (not Nevada) area of the Highlands in the early afternoon and then work off to the SE. Isolated activity then develops down the mountain chains towards the Sacramento Mountains. It looks like storms will be in the vicinity of Ruidoso but likely moving too fast and with not a lot of rain to cause any issues on the burn scars. The wildcard in all of this is the back door surface cold front that surges down the eastern Plains bring a surge of moisture to the region. Models need to have a good handle on it`s evolution and magnitude of moisture. The boundary layer moisture will be key to the whole convective scenario and where the forecast goes sideways for the intensity of storms. Will dewpoints in the 40s be the key to this all? Lastly we will throw in the mention of east canyon winds for the ABQ metro area late Sunday due to the back door front but just not a lot of confidence on the intensity of winds with it. 39 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 107 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026 Day 3 Monday: The upper level ridge strikes back. Star Wars reference intended. Yes that synoptic feature that reared its ugly head back at the end of March comes back to life like Darth Maul. Synoptic ensemble model suites are all in pretty good agreement with an anomalously high (+12 DAM) 500 mb ridge building over AZ/NM on Monday. As such temperatures rebound quite a bit in E NM with temperatures back into the mid/upper 80s after 70s on Sunday. Day 4-7: Tuesday the ridge builds over NM with 590 DAM heights at 500mb or again about +12 DAM above normal. It will be quite possible that kind of 500mb height would be close to a record on the 18Z ABQ sounding. And that would make sense given this height would be right around the 99th percentile of climo. Heat risk builds into the moderate category for much of NM as high temps reach the 90s which will be only about 2 weeks ahead of schedule instead of 2 months (at least for ABQ metro). Roswell will probably be in reach of 100F. Wednesday through the end of the week the upper level ridge moves over Texas and southwest flow aloft develops over NM. A weak shortwave passes by on Thursday which could bring some elevated convection to the area. Again not much moisture with this system so virga will be the most likely outcome from any convection. After that ensemble model suites become quite divergent in their solutions. Cluster analysis shows exactly that...a cluster. GFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensembles all favor different outcomes from each other. All this means is that there is very low confidence in the forecast day 7 and beyond. 39/Discussion courtesy the WCM working night ops. Take it for what it is worth.

It was sniffing out the mealies and seeds and then went on to the trash. I leave their fans running at night for noise…hopefully to deter.

If you were following the seasonal forecasts last November, then you would have seen the ones keying in on the early stratospheric warming and easterly QBO influence warming were on the right track. But it took about 3 months to finally deliver the big KU event. Would have been nice if we didn’t have to wait 11 years for a both cold and snowy winter in what has become a sea of warm. https://opensnow.com/news/post/november-update-2025-2026-winter-forecast-preview

This weather sucks in May. If this was before May I wouldn't have any problem with it but I just want it to be in the 70s/80s and be outside without wind/clouds/rain every other day

A little dip the past 2 days +1.4 over the past 3 months though puts us at +2.0 by mid August if the trend holds consistent

Sneaky cold overnight 33F, clouds coming in 39