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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The Nina-like WPAC warm pool forcing in DJF 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 did enhance the warmth in the Northeast those winters above the typical super El Niño winters like 1997-1998 and 1982-1983. While the PDO was positive in 2015-2016, we got the record MJO 5 in December adding to the historic +13 warmth. 2023-2024 had both a -PDO and strong MJO 4-7 activity. So both winters featured record Niña-like MJO activity for super El Niños. But even without the Niña influence in 1997-1998, that winter was still very warm. Plus the winters have warmed since 1997-1998. So perhaps that winter would be just as warm today as 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 was even without the La Niña influence. Since the stronger Southeast trough in 1997-1998 was all Pacific air with the record east based super El Niño. Top 15 warmest winters in NYC Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2001-2002 41.5 0 2 2022-2023 41.0 0 2015-2016 41.0 Super El Niño Nina Influence 3 2023-2024 40.6 Super El Niño Nina influence 4 2011-2012 40.5 0 5 1931-1932 40.1 0 6 1997-1998 39.6 Super El Niño No Niña influence 7 2016-2017 39.3 0 8 2019-2020 39.2 0 9 1990-1991 39.1 0 10 1998-1999 38.6 0 11 1948-1949 38.5 0 12 1889-1890 38.4 0 13 1952-1953 38.1 0 14 1982-1983 37.9 Super El Niño No Niña influence - 1936-1937 37.9 0 15 1996-1997 37.8 0 - 1932-1933 37.8 0 -
That 34° at MHT will go down as a record and tied for the coldest for so late in the season. Their threaded climate history is a bit of a disjointed mess though.
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Low of 39! Wow!
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Car top frost overnight. Might be the latest I've personally seen that
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Thats the million dollar question. I hope were done with this cool, sometimes cold, cloudy windy weather till November. But I think we need further guidance on this matter. -
Do you mean yesterday’s storm? It was a good event. Definitely thread worthy.
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First time since 1988 here around HVN that the strongest May wind gusts occurred so late in the month. So an unusually strong late May storm system. Very impressive omega block for this time of year.
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Mi casa was not part of the 'most' category. I haven't watched the whole thing, but I'm located about 100 yards from the scenes from minutes 17:00 - 20:00. Hurricane Bob drove a surge of 10 to 15 feet into Buzzards Bay. The Buzzards Bay shore east to Cape Cod was hardest hit. The highest surges, of 12 to 15 feet, were observed in Onset, Bourne, Mashpee and Wareham, at the head of Buzzard's Bay. Cove Road, in Mattapoisett, Massachusetts had 29 of 37 homes destroyed, while Angelica Point, Massachusetts lost 32 of 35 homes along the shore. Boat damage was significant, as many boats were torn from their moorings.
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Anomalous Late Spring storm May 30 2026
SouthCoastMA replied to HoarfrostHubb's topic in New England
.37 total it does look like a twig/leaf massacre out there - winds were decent -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Superstorm replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Pretty good winds yesterday. . -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Voyager replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Looks like maybe summer by the end of the week. Question is, do we keep it, or do the temps tank again after next weekend? - Today
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47 for the low imby
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
39 frigid degrees was my low too. What season are we in and what season are we headed to? -
Lots of low-mid 40s for lows on the mesonet. Impressive.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Voyager replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Temp took a big dip here the past two hours. It was 42 when I got up at 4:30, but now it dropped to where we officially got down to 39 at 6:30. Crazy... -
41.6°F this morning here. One of the coldest for this late in the season Westhampton dropped to 30°F this morning. This is the latest freeze on record for KFOK. Old record was May 22nd with 32°F set in 2002. More recently, in 2020 the low was 33°F on June 1st
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Chester County PA - Analytical Battle of Actual vs. Altered Climate Data
chubbs replied to ChescoWx's topic in Climate Change
But your Phoenixville chart shows increasing heat waves in the same 1978 to 2025 period. There are other explanations for the discrepancy. Station changes at Octoraro Lake being the most likely. You've been making the same cherry-picked comparisons with PHL for a decade now. Invariably the story changes when additional stations are included. Its about time for a KPTW update -
Yep. Did a bit better than you last week with the drizzle here, but my veggie garden is already thirsty as heck after two sunny days
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
pawatch replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
37 degrees this morning. Can’t remember seeing such temperature swings. No surprise though with the clear blue skies last night. -
So glad you experienced some snow yesterday! That was a cute little system.
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Chester County PA - Analytical Battle of Actual vs. Altered Climate Data
chubbs replied to ChescoWx's topic in Climate Change
The chart shows more heat waves at Phoenixville, when you consider the spurious warmth at Phoenixville in the 1930 to 1940 period that is well documented in this thread. -
43f at 3pm yesterday in death valley with changeable skies....40s most of the day, pretty wild for met summer 33-34f this morning for lows, not earth shattering but nice to see it can still happen Congrats to those northern mass folks who saw anything from cat paws to brief burts of moderate to heavy wet non accumulating snow or a slushy coating...so cool in met summer
