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My bad, Steve. Limits of not being able to detect tone combined with a fast-paced AM.

Euro hasn't been good at all

I got a dusting of snow last night, which for how this winter has gone, feels like a foot.

Seems like the models are hedging. It's like two ticks NW, then 1 tick SE... and summing all those up you have a painfully slowly, albeit it not enough, trend NW - so far. Just a behavioral ob re the total modeling with this over the last day, the significance of which notwithstanding. The sum total is that we are about as on the fence as we can be at this point. If this tips 50 mi NW in the mean of all, we have a solid high end WWA E of CEF-ASH, with warning S-E of PVD. Probably BW on the Cape just from the shear ferocity of what almost has to gust to 70 jesus. If it goes 50 mi SE, cirrus and wind with WWA on the Cape. It's like go up or down from there. But we're at 108 hours. Typically, we're narrowing goal posts by now. We'll have a few straggling posters that think we'll get a big move <100 hrs, but that actually doesn't occur as often in 2026. However, I agree with whom ever said 'rug pull' awhile ago, but that's in either direction. I think there's chance for short turn thrust NW, just because we have a bit of an unusually noisy situation out west that is anomalously complex. I noticed at 36-42 hours, the GFS has a spurious almost nondescript beta scaled S/W/jet streak coming in over S Cali...this sucker is a bottle rocket. FFFTW? It whips over the 4 Corners, across the deep south, as it intersect the b-c potential over the MA, it triggers. The wholesale trough amplifying then takes over, cut to a 970 mb low that the Euro, because it doesn't apparently see this feature, doesn't end with - in fact, the Euro doesn't appear to even see this jet streak (right) in the first place. Now, I don't know why that is...or if the GFS is full of shit, or if it is the other way, and the Euro's data smoothing thing might be killing it? But it is all but quite easy to miss that all but undefinable difference between those two cinemas. Ending up in a profound difference out in time. SO, if the feature is - after all- under assessed by 10% while at the same time, all guidance get a dose of it via physically realized soundings and so forth... we get a total correction NW, because with a monster. If it comes in more invisible, we collapse E. It would also helpful to this whole ordeal if the models would jack the western heights more. There is a relative maxim in the PNA that has materialized over the last week in the indices, but it's just lacking that much. ugh.

It's all good my answer to Brian was very very innocent. I clarified your position. Won't make that mistake again.

of course!

Hrrr is weird. Has this burst that flips pike area to paste. It also seems awfully warm on surface temps well into NH. Not sure.

This is true but most people as far as I can tell just gobble up whatever garbage social media algos feed them....that's why I just stay off social media for the most part.

Nah, stressed doing a million things at once. I hope we get croacked and if I have my way, I'll be 1000% wrong.

Never a good thing when the GFS is by itself. The model should be destroyed.

You do for free with a group instead of a business page… .

If you follow the page long enough you’d know they aren’t any good.

So so sorry you wake up cranky

I think anyone who puts that amount of time into being as clear and transparent as possible would be annoyed by that...just my take.

The inverted trough feature may clip us even if the coastal low does not.

I agree with you. There's just too much interfering with a positive outcome. Maybe a grazer for coastal regions at best.

Because the algorithms aren't programmed (or programming themselves) to show people accurate information.

Okay, I'm a dick, you are a dick with reading comp deficiencies.

Will almost certainly do a map for this one. Thinking 1-3 for northern CT at the moment. The tricky part imo is what to do with southern CT. Probably a coating with mix to rain or something like that.

If I did that people would say I do it for clicks! No interest in that and don't need the $ from a hobby!

Low of 33 and foggy but with no rain yet. The overnight runs were a mixed bag but more bad than good. My fear, and most likely outcome at this point, is that we are too far west to cash in on the best of the coastal and too far east for the best of the upper level trough action. Stuck somewhere in the middle with a showery couple, to perhaps a few, inches. Next 36 hours critical for any hope with the coastal. 12z looms.

People complain the forecast is never right, yet they go to the worst people forecasting haha

So defensive Jesus. You did say probably yesterday. Such a dick.

The algorithm knows people like sensational weather maps.