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He was talking Snow in his backyard yesterday.

I don’t think this is a case of that. (No, I’m not denying AGW; Yes, I believe it is occurring.) I think it’s more of a case of very early December and it just doesn’t happen that often at this time of year, especially in an enormous, concrete-heavy, oceanfront city. Sometimes things just happen. .

Welcome! Sounds like you're near the Bat Cave / Bearwallow Mountain area. Bearwallow has been known for some good winter weather from time to time. Funny you mentioned the Mid-Atlantic forum, that was my first introduction to AmericanWx as well. Spent the 2010 Snowmageddon/Snowpocalypse blizzards in the DMV when I was in the Navy. Fun times! Welcome to the mountains, hopefully you brought the winter weather mojo with you!

Wow, this one was fun to track, but all over the place. Not to give Kevin a big head, but I have to give him credit. He's stuck to his guns from the beginning. I'll be happy if I get an inch. Not too disappointed, as it's early and I don't usually see much snow around this time frame. I would start getting more anxious by the middle of the month. But even then, as we say for the last several years, we still have January, February and March. Hopefully we'll look back on this conversation by March and say what a winter it was!

I gotta say, I'm not really paying attention to the models this year and it's been less stressful. Just using the ole weatherbug app has simplified my life.and generally been more accurate.

York and Lancaster counties are ALWAYS the southern edge…ALWAYS! Like what even is that? GFS has 6 inches here and the NAM has barely an inch lol

36° w/ lots of sunshine currently. I do think Orange goes to a warning for 4-8". WWA for Rockland & W Passaic for 2-3". Once you cross the Hudson south of the Putnam/Westcher border is prob primarily a rain event with some snow to start. I-84 is the new "NW of 287" line

Okay, this one you'll have to guess based off the output. (for some reason I can't zoom in onto the Mid-Atlantic with this model)

I'll take "More Shitty Models" for $1,000 Alex.

There is going to be about a 15 mile separation of people with 1"-2" and someone with 6" it appears Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

RRFS for what it's worth... can anybody tell me where it comes from?

Some of these suppressed systems in the medium range...I would not be surprised to see those trend to snow in our area. Nice looking pattern with ample cold in the Ohio Valley. Also, notice how this time frame has trended from a SER to a VERY cold time frame just to our north.

Attention cliff jumpers: the annual panic room is now open.

I think we will get something similar. However we used up 1 above average snowfall winter on 2020/2021 now we only have 4 left lol.

Some decent trends for light snow in your back yard at 12z.

I would wager that you have decent odds at getting your covering and maybe even around 0.5" or so. I think some of the guidance is too aggressive with warming sfc temperatures so quickly. I understand too its the temperatures aloft which are a concern too but I think they will still be cold enough initially to support snow. But at the surface, dewpoints will still be into the upper 20's and probably some room to wet bulb at the initial onset of precipitation which should help to keep temperatures just cold enough.

Models all seem to be in agreement on a 3-6" storm on Wed for the metro area. Let's see how we can screw this one up.

Yeah, man. It was ice skating will jogging this morning. The frost was like black ice in shady areas.

Had mostly light SN, 1.1" and 0.07" LE, followed by 4 hours of light RA. Total precip of 0.12" was 3rd from lowest of 65 cocorahs reports when I looked at 9:30. November numbers Avg max: 39.7 -2.6 Highest: 51, 8th Avg min: 25.6 +0.9 Lowest: 14, 20th Mean: 32.7 -0.8 Precip: 2.35" -1.80" Wettest: 0.44", 10th Snow: 3.7" -1.2" Greatest: 2.4", 16th November 2025 was characterized by a lack of extremes (unless the modest 0.55" for wettest day was 'extreme'). Daily departures got no greater than 7.2° AN or 7.3° BN and only 7 days had 5° AN/BN.

If we have to replicate that period, could we include a 1978 and 1996 in the mix?

After tomorrow..looks like everything is put through the confluence shredder through early next week? maybe some flurries

So we should expect the models to be getting colder?. For some reason the Ak vortex is still there plus the EPS this morning did not look that cold.

Getting to the point that even 18 hours out now draws wildly varying and changing presentation outlooks

I think we are cooked down here....I'm worried we won't even get on the board here, especially at my lower elevation.

Yeah, You want to be NW of that.