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Did they actually term it a backdoor? It always looked like an outflow assisted seabreeze to me on the mesos from some convection along the coast. Looks like we ended up with a little more ridging though because I remember that 2m theta-e gradient being near the NH/ME border and now it’s up into central ME for this evening.

This weeks drought monitor showed significant worsening of conditions across NC with the triangle area finally slipping into D4 for first time since the 2007-2008 drought.

As long as this 200 -250 mb Jet Streak is unusually far south in June we are going to have chances of severe weather across the area - usually a summer like pattern features this being further north into Canada

oh yeah, some huge ones in my neighborhood that i try to avoid parking under

I feel like the first half of June is shaping up a lot warmer than it was looking a few weeks ago. I’d have to go back and read the posts. But most sites will be well AN through Sunday. ineedvitD can keep posting his d10 GFS afternoon 40s that verify as 70s and 80s.

Any show today looks to be a late one, per the overnight CAMs. There does seem to be a modest consensus that a broken line will approach from the northwest around sunset, and the environment should support maintenance of the activity for several hours beyond peak heating. As for Friday, instability looks great, but shear is not good. Storm organization should be sufficient for some severe threat, but the current CAM consensus keeps all storms later Friday from DC to the south.

Gm bros

Maybe too much of a good thing? Too much data dooms us in here in winter as we needle through all these implications over multitudes of modeling output that starts to paint these ideas on how to get a storm pack to 20" from 3 units of vertical velocity when sometimes a step back and head clearing might make the event at hand a bit more realistic and less ACME coyote planned. LOL... I dunno. Maybe analogous to that they're looking at too many reasons that could happen and not enough at if it's likely. I did annotate a chart that showed a tendency for a west bulged PP on Friday, yesterday morning, but it was very weak... The NAM grid had that numeric suggestion at Logan of 88 to 76 back to 88 wind driven temp flop look. Not sure if that's what they were spooked by. That same 'bulge' is now gone, and the NAM grid has offshore throughout.

Even though the RONI in the 2023-2024 super El Niño lagged the ONI by 0.6, the May 2023 response at 500mb was actually stronger than both 2015 and 2026. My guess is could be related to the early development of 2023 especially in the Nino 1+2 regions. So this is probably why the 500 mb ridge in Canada and warmth going into the winter of 2023-2024 was better aligned with the ONI at 2.1 rather than the RONI at 1.5.

I have a large one of those in my hay field. I lost one side of it about 5 years ago but it is massive. They are fragile but can turn into impressively large trees given the right environment.

Chips Ahoy boxes

.44 yesterday

It's a standard summer oscillatory pattern. We could have really assumed the models were too deep on the polar side of the ambient jet, a failing particular to the GFS in latter mids and ext ranges... As we get closer, it's converting it to more climo-friendly wave spacing pushing fronts through a more neutral foot. Hydrostats meandering up and down around 560 dm thickness isn't exactly a cold fulcrum. It shouldn't really inspire very BN to be honest. - realize there's some shape likeness to autumn but folks whom are challenged to employ an objective "cold bullshit filter" ...like at all, may find that too hard to resist, however

This WWB has actually increased in strength And the new DWKW in the WPAC looks very healthy @40/70 Benchmark

I was pretty impressed myself with the windows all fogged over. Feels like pure soup today.

now one does these events like iowa

Even the model surface temps had 90s here. I have no idea what they were looking at.

I haven't seen all my windows fogged up like this since last season. That's always a good sign on a thunderstorm day. Last evenings classic summer thunderstorm was great. I sat outside for the entire thing. I even got to experience a couple close strikes that rocked the ground. Today looks like storm chances hold off until later in the evening. Getting another storm today would be beneficial.

Really starting to bow out with that wicked apex

Starting to look that way.

And if we wanted go back one more year, I'm sure Feb 2015 had a +10 departure somewhere in the West. I feel like 2011-12 was the tipping point. I just checked the departures, and there were places in North Dakota that maintained the +10 departure for 4 months straight, from December 2011 to March 2012.

I can't imagine IMBY getting a ripping bow echo at 8am like what southern IA is experiencing currently.

Wish winds would take down all the invasive trees myself

Any chance we might see SPC bump us up to Enhanced risk for Friday?

Yeah, just poking around the NWS non-standard sites and everyone was 68 to 72 for a low. Some in fact are 80 by 80... that's a bit above climo too. We'll see where we are at 10am. I don't frankly see any limitations on high temperature as the nocturnal weakly bounded low on the arm of the warm front has escaped seaward and clearing has enveloped; we're pretty much unobstructed solar, dumping raw radiant power into a very prepped situation/high-ish launch scenario. I'm noticing an AWT moment as NWS has indeed extended the headlines throughout - that weak BD idea in the models was another example of their going from poor detection in previous generations, to being oversensitive and over creating them if you ask me ...