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Thanks! I partly make stuff like that and my past analyses cause of your encouragement so thank you. That said, don't ever feel shy about telling me I'm wrong.

North again this is a great day feel time for more north adjustments

I think in the future, when this thing gets serious, we need a serious met/contributor thread, and then an anything goes thread. Otherwise the storm thread is useless. Mods can discriminate who's in the serious thread (for example, I should not be in it). I value your contributions @SnowenOutThere. It's frustrating for me when my memes end up at the bottom of pages, so I can't imagine how it feels when actual effort-laden posts fall to that cliff. The storm thread was nuts for HH, i was offline from like 445-6pm and missed 4 pages lol

Alright.Someone explain this to me.Is it a late saturday night storm early sunday morning into late sunday?Maybe ending early early monday, or is it a sunday storm into tuesday?Because first it was a saturday night storm into sunday.Then, it was a sunday storm into tuesday, long duration.Now i'm seeing all the local forecasts, saying that it's a saturday night into sunday night stormAny info on the Euro run

Lawd that was &^%$&*(*)*)* depressing.

What?

18z Euro is what we all draw up in our dreams

There's a pretty high floor with this system because it's so large with tons of moisture and very cold air but the question is the phasing which would create a much higher ceiling. This doesn't feel like a thread the needle situation that we usually see in these parts with all or nothing scenario.

Aurorabury .

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FOLKS

Euro is most phased solution and mixing doesn't happen until central VA.

looking like a double digit snowfall for all of SNE on these runs, I'd say as it stands now I'll go 8-14" here, very nice trends and upper lvl looks, also, one that's not in and out in 8 hours would be excellent, miss those storms of yore where we get either a stall, retrograde or just cut off creeping by throwing back CCB firehose type stuff... and I would not sleep on the 29th either, like the H5 look there.

Great post!

https://www.northshorewx.com/19780113.html

There's just so many moving pieces. Will see a bunch more solutions before it's all said and done. Maybe that means freezing rain to the NC border. But also it wouldn't be a huge shock to see things swing back the other way

we continue phasing

As much as we all want Blizzard warnings the wind speeds just aren't there. Will sadly need to take a winter storm warning for 16-20 inches instead.

EPS made the same shift towards more phasing and now has 0.75" liquid to NYC

Would really suck after all winter having such a northern stream dominated pattern that when we finally get the subtropical jet to cooperate, it causes our storm to phase and cut like that

Actually starting to look like we are gonna get "missed" again. Id rather that happen than a crippling ice storm! Models sneaking the line slightly North.

Dec 2018 was north at this point too… .

Eps. 12z bottom.

I still think this turns out to mostly a snow event from I-85 north.

These maps are crazy. I like that the precip shield is so big.