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NAM is a better model than GFS at this point. They are decommissioning the wrong one.

That might be how the models look now, but I’m thinking that’s transitional as models converge on a final outcome. I think it’s probably Saturday or Sunday/Monday producing significantly rather than neither or both if that makes sense.

Meanwhile the FV3 still trying for it lol

In reality, I would not put much stock into any meso model and not just because we're outside of the range they are useful for, but they are not particularly good with phasing events and aren't really designed for them anyways.

If ICON and RGEM go east, then the trend is prob real. But yeah, not putting a ton of stock into a NAM run…but still, if there was going to be a hard trend west, you’d think the NAM would be all over it.

Goalposts are set. NAM east, RGEM/AI's most amped. Euro/GFS kinda inbetween

Keeps us in the crosshairs for the best band still though. I’d like some snow cover on top of all this ugly patchy icy crap.

Ignored for now.

At least this pattern looks better and it’s colder. A little more wiggle room than that February look last winter. Doesn’t guarantee anything of course.

Indeed, we pivoted from needing westward trends to cooler trends. Still have my eye on the plateau tonight. National guidance is modest but those high-res short-term models are suggesting multiple inches in some parts.

Yeah.. I mean they are big misses

Meh. One model model outside of its range. Need to see that with RGEM/GFS to make anything of it. Though technically the RGEM is still outside its range too. Gotta see the whole 12z suite including AI models.

Nothing is that far south and east. Weird run.

Bad start to 12z

It's up to Reggie, if that capitulates, we're in big trouble.

Yup, lol that's now actually the most likely scenario for much of us..

12z NAM throws away the last bit of hope. Much further east, some snow in parts of S.GA and S.SC. 3KM is a little better but still east with much of the precip and some slop in Central and Eastern NC

Which is probably correct lol

If we can’t cash in on this then we just suck. Not sure I ever seen a precip mean that high for that far out.

12z Hrr and NAM want nothing to do with the 2nd system

Nam is way south. Very weird.

WRF2 trending cooler for tonight’s wave. .

Two days after making us ground zero for the fantasy snow blitz, the GFS has decided to make us the screw zone of all screw zones. To be clear, 8" over 16 days isn't horrible, but it would be pretty awful if everybody else in the northeastern US got 2 feet +.

Well that sucks but has me worried despite the Nam.

Just thinking to myself...is it a precursor the one model you would expect to go bonkers not doing so