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One thing to watch are the consistent pulses of southern stream energy popping up in the long range. That’s been another fly in the ointment the past few years. Last year was a parade of northern stream pieces of energy squashing the southern stream. That’s fine for a novelty event but if you want a big dog, we need less of that this winter.

coastal weenies gotta pray for 18z euro and euro AI to be seeing something the others dont.

Well I was being somewhat serious. I think it's important to have his contributions but I always feel like the wet blanket. I guess if people are interested they can go read on their own.

31 already .... forecast says 22 for tonight's low.

We rarely miss a storm to the south. However, last winter it was suppression city around here. I don't think anyone realized the magnitude of last year's big gulf coast storm. Some locations along the gulf coast got more snow in that one storm than the last 100 years of snowfall combined. Think about all those snowless winters before 2025. That's more impressive than folks want to admit. It set all-time records for cold and snow in many places. I would not call last winter average when looking at the south/southeast as a whole. If we would have had just a little SE ridging... western NC would have been buried instead of coastal areas. Then everybody around here would have talked about it being an A+ winter. Guess it all about perspective.

Yeah, it's a slap in the face when you see an LP to our South and we get Rain.

The GFS has mixing issues in areas that are north of the steady precip. shield on the ECM. Contrarily, the 12z EPS is west of the 18z GEFS with the precip. sheild. If you believe in the predictive value of ensembles you might think the GFS will shift south in future cycles. We're still 3.5 days out, so inter-model variability is expected. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

The new moneypit we just bought (1820) has sill plate repair/replace as job #1 as soon as we close on it.

Typical for 4 days out.

11.5" looks to be storm total here. HRR definitely did well. Impressive start to the season with 18" in November. Have to go back to 2014 for the last time I recorded more for November.

Wow never would have guessed that. I’m a Bucs fan so I know the Falcons well. We stink too [emoji2375] .

Still cranking away. Storm total is what's on the stack plus 1-1.5" that was there between 5-6am before the board flipped. The base area probably is only an inch behind or so.

I just watched The American Revolution. The Euro caved.

The ECM is a strange solution. Its precip. field is well southeast of the 12z EPS and the shortwave is less impressive than 12z, but it still rapidly deepens the SLP into the 970mbs near the benchmark. The ECM family and the GFS are not close. Much more overlap between the ensemble means.

18z eps is further east

Which has almost become the norm 4 to 5 days out.

Fair enough. You can have my 8 I’ll take your 13.

all jokes aside, enjoy your storm! You all deserve the jackpot

Man these models are just hilarious

Depends on the model you look at. GFS is on its own with its NW solution. Most of the models have the weaker and south solutions. It's a fine line if we want better snows. Regardless as of now it looks like tuesday has a high potential to give us pur first real accumulating snow.

18z gfs looks great for you

HAHAHAHAHA

This would make too much sense. Ridge and Valley screwzone.

We've learned over the years that the models almost always underdo that "WTOD" and we're on the edge right now. Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk