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Not much has changed - reminds me of a few weeks ago when we were in the northwest side of the heat ridge which is famous for severe weather chances

40’s all winter is cold ?

Hoping Cvill can get in on the action once the ridge starts to break down towards the weekend.

no I wont.. atleast it will be cold.. I hate when I can build a nice pack and then its gone in a day..

New run of the seasonals should be out soon....I expect them to back off of the -NAO and go warmer early on.

Boring

Yeah probably 46-49 or so

Maybe a delayed but not denied situation with Thursday potentially being the day for some strong-to-severe storms. But tomorrow is going to be a pure almost nowcast

Should be 40s with his elevation

You’ll care when it’s raining all winter with temps in the 40’s and 50’s

Wow, looks cool next weekend...nice.

agreed. looking more and more like the ACs can go back into the basement, thus liberating valuable and beloved window screen space 64/63, off the morning low of 61

who cares if it is.. above normal isn't hot this time of year.. unless its way above and it wont be.

Nice day today here before 3 days of garbage.

Everything on satellite would suggest this is a TC this morning, and a ship observation of a westerly wind near the center would suggest this is a closed low. Recon will confirm I guess. Given its size and more symmetrical convective appearance this morning, I don’t think dry air has been too impactful yet. It may have a higher ceiling as @Windspeed suggests, but we’ll see what recon finds.

That exact same paragraph is carried over to this morning's AFD. "Latest guidance"? NWS and CWG disagree on storm chances today: NWS has a 40% pop for central Fairfax, CWG downplays it: "Can't rule out an isolated evening storm, especially north and northwest of the Beltway." Decided to live dangerously and leave the umbrella at home; let's see how that works out.

What a doosh . Wow

Another casual 1.3” overnight. 12.9” for August now

I'm encouraged given the favorable things in place. Then again - we have been burned many times by so many different failure methods. Will be curious to see what guidance looks like as we go forward in time and how the AI/ML guidance trends.

Yesterday evening, this northwest perimeter flow developed a strong storm in southwest Augusta. A couple locations received close to 2 inches of rain while a few miles away, little more than sprinkles.

Interesting...didn't know that. Confirms what I had already suspected about this December. Maybe that is why El Nino Decembers are usually warm....not so much about El Nino itself, but some of the intervals of -SOI that goes along with it...though, I guess it really doesn't matter.

More evidence that the ridge is operating independently of ENSO as we have seen this summer regardless of ONI, RONI, MEI, and SOI. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz4647 Marine heatwaves in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) have become increasingly frequent and persistent, yet the mechanisms enabling their multiseasonal duration remain poorly understood. Through observational analyses and climate model experiments, we demonstrate that NWP marine heatwaves are primarily driven by a quasistationary wavenumber 5 circumglobal wave (CGW) pattern that operates independently of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The CGW modulates surface heat fluxes during summer, triggering a self-reinforcing feedback loop where NWP warming intensifies the CGW pattern, amplifying and prolonging heatwaves across extended warm seasons. Additionally, CGW-driven summer warming in the northern North Atlantic persists into winter through oceanic thermal inertia, exciting a great-circle wave pattern that propagates back to the NWP, sustaining heatwaves through cold seasons. This interplay between atmospheric waves and trans-basin interactions enables multiyear marine heatwave events. Analysis of observational data and climate model simulations reveals a strengthening CGW influence in recent decades, indicating more frequent and prolonged NWP marine heatwaves under ongoing global warming.