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I’ve never been to Mammoth, but have skied in extreme conditions in Montana and New Mexico. The heaviest snow I’ve ever seen was actually in Taos NM. 4 feet of snow in 2 days. The powder was surreal! They will likely get double that or even more at Mammoth this week! You seriously have to be extremely careful even more so after a snow of this magnitude once the snow ends. Like you said Carver, you can’t see anything and you don’t know what obstacles or tree wells, holes, etc you might encounter. Plus the resistance from the powder is difficult to navigate when it’s that deep. It’s fun to experience it but it’s hard to do anything much with it. It’s hard to imagine that there’s too much snow to ski on, but that is kinda what happens. Now give it a few days and it will be epic! However, with the forecast looking like a steady atmospheric river of snow, it might be more than a few days before they can reopen it!

I know but it’s old info at this point.

GFS running now,,,,,,,,,tick tock

Agreed 16.6" over 4 days! a truly unique storm!!

Looked good overall - tad s/e weaker 12z 126 vs 18z 120 but seemed like a slower phase and would be a a nice hit FWIW at 120 on the ICOn anywas.

That's the most recent one. The 3-4 week gets updated weekly (on Fridays), so the next update is on Feb 20 (for March 7-20).

With the 500 cut off where it is on the ICON at 120 hr and the sfc low about 100 mi E of ORF, that should be enough for a movement close enough to SNE for sig snow. The strong vort SW of the cut off is somewhat of a wildcard. It seems to be rotating around the cut off faster than the upper low itself, so does it continue and go negative as it crosses the coast and you get one large cut off low just S of LI? The ridge over the Rockies is staying put and not de-amplifying, so that's good. Downstream the flow is still rather flat, but there are modest 500 height rises S of NS and NFL 108 to 120 hr.

I had like 3 inches from that storm all on the wrap around stall the next day after the brunt of it. Still leaves a bad taste in my mouth lol

Wrong… That was issued Feb 13‼️

No sun here but 40 for a high and some noticeable melting.

Thats what I took from it. I think that may have gotten pretty wrapped up on future hours

Euro had a pretty expansive precip shield for not being able to ‘find the storm.’

That’s what we are talking about . Tomorrow night

what's funny is that the OP euro has been brutal this winter too...not GFS bad but still pretty bad. The AI euro is crushing the OP euro in verification scores last I saw...it's going to be a clear upgrade once it's fully integrated.

GSP has put snow in the forecast for Sunday and Sunday night. A low of 18 is going to be a shock after a week of warm temperatures.

This type of setup is pretty sensitive to a last second amplification.

The ICON 500mb now looks like the Euro at 12z. Quite the change from 12z.

Not sure how warm it actually got today as I was out running errands in a tee shirt all day but right now it is 46 degrees

Not only this threat, every threat is a shell game with features leading right up to the event/non-event.

Wake up and go to sleep.

Yes, they are closed today. Other than the obvious, the real danger is skiing in deep snow on ungroomed trails. Tree wells and falling off the edge of groomed areas....one can just get buried and suffocate. Plus, right now, they won't operate lifts with that wind. It is absolutely insane right now. We stayed (this summer) about four apartment complexes down the road from the Mammoth cam and it is just crazy how little you can see in that wind driven snow. Pretty much whiteout conditions at 9,000'. I can't imagine what it is between 12,000-14,000' in the Sierra.

Starts off a bit sloppy, but extrapolated from here it honestly looks pretty good. For NE, you'd want the vort to close off and capture a hair later as otherwise it could occlude south of you (think Boxing Day).

OMG someone posting the ICON EPS!

51 for the high here