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06z EURO looked pretty great for this area

While south and west of me has been very wet, I'm now in the midst of a incredibly dry period for this time of year with no precip for a solid week at least. A 1039mb high is analyzed over QC (Quebec) currently which is nuts, just a monster ridge giving us the blue skies. A preview a things to come up there in Hudson/Northern ON/QC. It was getting far too cloudy last week so this is relief but its getting chilly.

Facebook weather hypers should all be sentenced to jail

This is why tracking a system 10 days out usually leads to disappointment. The envelop is so small for a region wide hit, it’s almost definitely not going to happen as depicted at that timeframe. I’d favor the cape for real impacts right now and tapering off NW of there

1.91” for latest event imby/Columbia thru 9am Wed. Appears to be on the lower end of reports listed here.

Can we at least save Saturday? Sunday is for church and watching football.... but Saturday is for outdoor activities.

Wouldn’t call them mid level…just some low Cu. But yeah, they’re moving pretty good.

GFS suite for the past couple of days may be locking onto the New England 5H trof too much... EPS modeling insists northward moving - deepening sfc low up against a strong surface high Quebec area. The phase diagrams for the EC glom onto a weakness off the Carolinas tomorrow and make its briefly warm core before asymmetric warm core and eventually degrading cold core system. This has been ongoing modeling for several days. So it seems to me WPC took a compromise of yesterday's modeling. Nothing yet from NHC that I can find regarding a possible subtropical storm evolution so they are seeing guidance that mutes or nullify that possibility-rely on their guidance. This will probably be my last for this on the forum. It's several days of EPS vs GEFS through the 06z/23 cycle (inclusive of AI EPS). Believe what you wish- me, Im preparing my ball club for a rainout Fri night-Sun night in nw NJ and believe a decent G wind 45 MPH-rain drenched leaves taking out power all the way back to the NJ coast this weekend-esp Sat. NWS offices are onto the coastal flooding. I dont like to be embarrassed by wrong planning (relying too heavy ily on the EPS indie of 5 days) so I recommend you continue with official NWS products as your primary guide.

I noticed that yesterday looking out the window. Had to take a second and more closer look...haven't seen clouds stream in from that direction in a while. They were hauling too

Coastal flooding is going to be the issue. Seems flooding is a theme for Irish Weekend. This is from Irish Weekend three years ago in North Wildwood. Guess I know what I'll be doing down there. lol

Haven't seen mid low clouds screaming in from the east like today since before the January blizzard

what are you talking about ???? the 0Z EPS trended east with heavier precip from its 12Z yesterday run !!

Eps is west on this run. Nothing is set in stone yet.

Looks like a borefest with rain and wind but nothing remarkable and stinks it's all on a weekend

2.44” so far for the week.

a few models

..it exists in someone's mind.....

Perhaps as many since the last Bruins Stanley Cup win???

Lawn is the frostiest I’ve seen it so far

So the AI’s are still bringing the more significant solutions?

2.42” since Sunday

It seems to get drunk much more now a days. It Must be hanging with their cousin more now, the Ukie.

.07 overnight with the next batch of rain looking like it slides east. Not done yet but storm total will probably be under .6 if I had to guess. Was really hoping for a nice soaking rain to go on a fun waterfall/river hike over the weekend. Might attempt some form of reanalysis to figure out what happened.

2.9 inches total, all with light to occasionally mod rain. Absolutely perfect! Now I'm looking forward to the luscious weather later this week into the weekend. Get ready to fire up those grills!

For an in my back yard take, we have our annual fall fest/kids bday party set for Saturday; but if it’s going to come, let’s get it cranking!