All Activity

26 / -3 in SE Cary with sleet.

The GEM had 3 clippers in about 36 hours to end the week at 12z. It seems it didn't run at 12z today.

Will this greatly improve the verification scores of the American models? Will the GFS be an actual model to consider once this new core is implemented?

Just took the dog for a last walk before this and it started pinging pretty good in Durham over by Southpoint about about 348.

Seems logical. Start and end times? *Going w/11"-13" for my area. The thump better THUMP though...

Halls, Hwy 33 at Emory Rd. N Knox Co .

That's incorrect. Mt.Holly is only 5" south of 276/195; 6" north or there and contiguous with Upton...

Almost identical to its 12z.

When does the cold start bothering the chickens?

Yes. Maybe not quite as wild as 12k but same general idea.

Feel like we’re in store for a huge sleet fest

Anyone else with nervous energy based on: - remarkable alignment / continuity over last 4 to 5 days - positive trends as we get closer

Flake size staying around nickel at best but lots of them now. Very high ratio powder. About the best contrast I have is taking a photo towards a vehicle. Curious if the big flakes come right before sleet or not.

And almost always sooner is better than later for DC. Don’t know why but it’s observationally correct

18z rapid refresh was a slight improvement and the 19z HRRR was a tick colder as well at H17/18. Definitely going to be a nowcast situation as it unfolds .

Big basketball day here, so I like checking in and seeing conflicting reports. .

I'm in southern tip of Yonkers so I'm pretty familiar with the NW Bronx, def more hilly and less urban than most of the city. The biggest difference is in marginal temp surface events, since this is upper levels I don't know how much it helps but having a little extra latitude should help in this setup.

It looks like at H5 the kicker dropping in from Canada has kind of ended up sweeping everything, including the Baja wave, out north and east. All that spawns a gulf low, but nothing too wound up. Just a massive load of moisture overrunning and what the New England weenies call a southwest flow event. It doesn’t all ever really phase so much as it just keeps truckin.

I would love if it takes that long, but I'm mentally prepared for 13-14z.

I'm just glad the models don't seem to be backing off the +PNA anytime soon

Got a good pot of gumbo going and locked in for a big winter event

WB 18Z ICON snowfall is an improvement.

You are spot on. MPAS is going to replace FV3 in RRFS Version 2, and it will probably be used across the board eventually in the NWS models.

There were some things about the forecast and models that don't make sense to me. Reluctant to say anything other than we will see how it turns out.

I guess the Masters is going to have to truck in a bunch of sod come April.