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RAP

getting pasted in the Triad right now...went out to blow snow and the top of the driveway had another inch by the time I got to the bottom

Probably a lot of non sheltered instruments too. You get that sometimes with snowpack reflecting light back too.

Not qpf. The Carolina’s are showing us how it’s really done.

A weenie view of a classic it's coming north radar hallucination. Who else is feeling January 2000? coming north.mp4

WTTTE

Gonna be a Valentines Sweetheart for someone and the Kiss of Death for someone.Hard to figure this one out but its still a couple weeks out.GEFS shows the NAO/PNA possibly crapping out FOR US,but we are talking two weeks away/JMA has the MJO moving through P1-2,thats typically a cold look in J/F/M

Let the radar hallucinations begin.

March 2018 was epic in Suffolk. Nor’easter every weekend

I can verify. Snowing hard now. Big flakes. ground starting to get covered. Currently 25. Wind chill is getting brutal.

RAP says we have a long long way to go. A lot of back building showing up in the short range modeling. Gonna be interesting to see.

yeah, looks like this is going to be our "right place at the right time" storm, happens every 10 to 15 years or so. We may be in the Georgia sweet spot....I've already got close to 4 inches over here off Braselton Hwy & Hamilton Mill Rd.

Winston-Salem Beltway

Yes check your sensor mine was doing the same thing cleaned it out now down from 24.7-20.6

Doesn't the flip to a slightly -PNA/+EPO regime counteract the dry issue with strong -NAOs, while also guaranteeing that most systems that hit us will be cold enough for snow (due to that strong -NAO)?

Ring camera pic after 2.5 hours of snow and the rail has about .500 inch. Heavy small flakes at the moment.

Avery County, NC reporting around ~7”

The first ten days of Feb were supposed to be warm-ish as in back to normal...and IDK if that is actually gonna work out. Take a look at the 12z GFS....one chance after another. I do think mid-month is a good window. But Wednesday has to be watched as does next weekend. Saturday-Monday is a window as well w/ a chance at a strong cold front. I am not even sure we are done w/ below zero stuff after early this week. I will say this...at some point this bitterly cold pattern is gonna break, even if spring forces it. And yes, I do think we have a warm ridge rolling through at some point, but I have to be honest...I am good w/ a few warm days. I need to thaw out. Morning runs w/ wind chills below 5F are not fun.

20z and 21 show another convection band right over us! .

When's the last time the Northeast had a winter like this where DJF were all below average with a constant snow pack for weeks??

Suppression ? I thought you liked February . Too early to write off the whole month .

3 to 5 hour snow event now? Even if we get 7 inches this will still be a major bust based off that! Lol

Sun feels great

Danielson Arp is 21 an ASOS