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That kicker in the Dakotas is the problem on the Gfs suite this run. Will it start showing up on other guidance is the question.

Great Scott! Pinch me!

I think it's because it was coupled with it's AI counterpart also going way south, lol Edit: And now the gefs too

GFS was a definite trend in right direction

Until recent years, 9 degrees in mid winter at RDU would not be especially noteworthy, especially with snow cover.

the kicker energy to the north in Canada will pull likley the storm north and the HP over southern Quebec will alsoweaken. This will come to fruition after the missing/scant W PAC data is finally ingested into the Meso models by Thursday 12Z runs Magical points to look for for a MECS/HECS 1. a 1035mb high over southern quebec - we have that, 2. the LP over SW VA with a secondary LP forming directly over the NC Hatteras area- starting to take shape in the last model runs, 3. The secondary LP taking it sweet ass time getting to the Delmarva pennisula-- the sweet spot/Bench mark as the primary LP in W dies on the grapevine do not know yet and 4. An inverted trough setting ip with the LP going negative tilt setting up just off the NJ coast at at least 980 mb --do not know yet Until than trust nothing from social media BS meteorologists. If the 12Z runs on Thursday show something, then Friday winter storm watches should be flowing out. Possible warnings with this storm by the OZ meso runs on Sat if indeed this scenerio unfolds including just about everything in the NWS winter kitchen weather warnings cabinet including freezing spray, blizzard warnings as that criteria will easily be met with the extreme cold but no high winds may prevent them from being issued, Wind chill warnings, cold advisories, ice storm warnings, beach erosion etc, PA NJ and NY would issue state of emergencies Sat morning, major interstates will be shutdown Sat night- the entire winter kitchen cabinet will be emptied folks. Still to early, but I bet your ass that PEMA is looking at this situation right now as the PJM grid system will take a hell of hit too with below zero temps for highs after storm departs. FWIW from the drought guy who has seen every nasty storm in the last 45 years here.

Don't judge

Gefs is way south but honestly idc.

You know you're a when you start giggling like a crazy person as you check each layer of the atmosphere, and see everything solidly below freezing

I really dont get the angst over the 18Z GFS. It looks great at this lead time. It's gonna snow ya'll. And not everyone gets the bullseye. Thats the way the game goes.

Back to your regularly programmed posting

I’m shocked to hear this from you Did you win the bet by the way?

More often than not the GFS doesn’t lead the way with trends. Hopefully it’s not this time! If this trends to a dud for us with the gfs leading the way I’m gonna be very on tilt for rest of winter.

CMC amped , GFS suppressed. Yet every model run gives RVA a nice snow storm

It will be a couple hours for it to flip south if it is gonna try to recover. Probably won’t be some ridiculous show like it could have been if the orientation was south -60 instead of north, but 20 or so south in an agitated magnetic field could still give us a show of some kind I hope

I like seeing which models sniffed this out at range. This forum had this window from way out there. Just looking at some posts(Jed and Jax go pick up your long ranger awards). The hapless and much maligned and lowly GFS nailed this window at full range(pretty sure 384!), including the big high. Ensembles from all models also hit this at almost d15. The GFS has historically had some skill(or is it a broke clock is right 2x a day) at d16. Pretty incredible for a that model or any model. Honestly, I am intrigued that it was able to due that given its struggles this winter.

Maybe a decade now without a good overrunning event like this!

Gonna be chaos in here when we go from subzero highs to upper 30 rains at the end of the month. .

Already done with the early bird special at Dennys? Bedtime for you soon

I feel like we’ve seen this movie a dozen times. This will correct NW over the coming days. If you’re in the Southern Mountains from Highlands to Saluda, get ready.

Yea, wind was a little sharp at times, but overall a very Colorado-style day.

I can barely remember my pin for my ATM card. When you get old and feeble the memories of past storms all bleed together. The snows from 1899 and 2016 are one in the same to me

Right there with you. It ain't right, I'm telling ya...a whole generation is going through their childhood without knowing what it's like! I was blessed to have a childhood with 1996, 2000, 2003, and 2006. But this time? I mean dang over a decade you'd think ONE time we could get something more than an inch or two to work out. And our yards in particular! There's some imaginary snow shield or something, smh I just don't get it, smh Yeah this one is far from resolved but you can't but feel like "Here we go again" when you see a model showing an unfavorable solution. Even the dang Ninos we've had in 18-19 and 23-24 didn't do jack diddly SQUAT. I mean we likely have another one coming next year so maybe we can try that again but man...rough!

Not putting any stock into the GFS rn. It’s scored the lowest outta all the models. .