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Those will be the biggest runs of our lives!

To clarify, I was comparing to 12z which is a full run. The 18z didn't go all the way out. 0z is south of 12z.

Geez 1.3” of QPF on ICON. The fetch off the Gulf on the 700RH map is awesome too.

I haven’t looked too closely at that, but I would bet some slant-wise instability will be found somewhere in this. Bob showed a point sounding with a bit of MLCAPE which should promote a better opportunity for some thunder prospects. Considering the sounding Bob had, I would suspect the best chance would be across the Western Carolina’s up into Central VA within the primary 7H Frontgen pattern that materializes late-Sat PM into Sunday AM.

Not that anyone cares per se but we now have a DCA/BWI/PHL/NYC hit. Just need Boston to complete the megalopolis quinella

It’s NAM extrapolation time!!

ICON north of 18z gets more precip north of the PA border. Looks like a warning level event verbatim. Let's see how the gfs fucks this up.

The ICON was just brutal for Knoxville, 24 with heavy freezing rain over a solid snow pack.

Yea Icon is beautiful

We haven't been to HECSville since Jan 24th 2016

Icon

WAA almost always start earlier than modeled, let’s see what happens with the arctic air in place

Way better look at h5 though with significant phasing out west. It kind of squirts just a little east at the end but it’s a much higher end look a couple panels before that.

Checking in from Rocky Mount Virginia. Do we think ratios if things stop bleeding north would be higher than 10 to 1?

Seconded. The incessant negativity this early in the game is rather draining, and ultimately, it isn’t going to change the eventual outcome at all. .

Because we are

ICON Total at 10-1 ratio…. .

About 27 hours of white smoke

Off to a great start, what can possibly go wrong?!

I told all of you that I will not go below 10 in NYC during this stretch! Let's face it the dramatic development of NYC's landscape over the last two decades had impacted how cold it can get!

Why do I have a feeling we are slowly creeping towards HECSville.

The 0z ICON flirted w/ a true coastal cyclogenesis. Probably some reflection west of the Apps, but the depth of cold would not allow much liquid. Severe winter storm as is. Totals are on Pivotal.

DC to Baltimore buried. Wow, the trends have been great. It’s the Icon, but it’s not on its own

ICON was pretty good for RIC. Big time mixing in HR. RIC flirts with the mix line. Granted it is the ICON too

0z ICON: