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La Niña’s gonna La Niña. I’m hoping for 4-6” here. Gonna be a challenge in this pattern.

I saw that but, the Runs they showed were yesterday up to the 0Z AI.

WxBell skipped between 168 and 228 so this isn’t all from this first threat. There’s enough spread here to give caution to these ginormous hits on the OP. I’ll take # 42 please.

PDII is probably my choice for a closer analog. The banana high, attacking moisture from the south of Gulf origin, and multiple wave ejections from the southwest. A coastal development mid to late storm cycle during the event…lots of similarities. I am not, in any way saying the result will be the same, btw. I am saying pattern evolution similarities are there and that bodes well for the Mid Atlantic.

Yeah EPS AI keeps the lower heights further west too.

Yes, we are all very jealous of Richmond. That's why it rarely gets mentioned, because of how much people are thinking about it and wishing they lived there. Keen analysis.

I don’t have @psuhoffman’s photographic memory for random 6z runs of failed storms, but my memory for late February last year was we had this amazing signal but guidance was never keying in on the same storm or shortwave? It was more of a several day period that looked good (and failed). So this looks quite different with a clear shortwave and storm development scenario.

12z EPS

Some flurries / snow squallls into PA with the front, maybe a stray flurry or shower makes it this way. Was up to 33 now clouds / mostly cloudy and down to 30

For this to really to go bonkers you’d want the trough to close off over the Tennessee Valley. Even so, there will be an insane amount of overrunning precip.

Low of 27 with heavy frost.

That's a new modifier concerning snowfall -- "violently" beautiful??? Now everyone knows why I call CoastalWx the super UBER snow weenie! He makes up phrases to describe his ecstasy!

We've seen the last minute rug pulled out from us MANY times. Honestly, just enjoying having something to track within 4 days at the moment.

Yeah based on 500mb flow, safe or too safe is more likely for this one. I 80 souther special in the makings with northers still getting warning level. Only about 19 more model runs to go....lol

I know it's a silly point forecast but how often to we have that high POPs this far out plus highs barely out of the teens. Gotta be a strong signal.

I worked with Tomer when he was DTB at WPC…this is incredible coming from him…..but he’s not wrong imo. Do I think it’ll be the same magnitude? Probably not, but impactful to a point of major impact potential? Yes, it really could be. This is a pattern where it might not be just one system we are tracking. The teleconnections tell the story. This is the lineup for Mid Atlantic storminess. Details be damned, but this is truly a pattern where there will be a ton to watch over the next 2 weeks. Prep that coffee and prepare for cold weather, at a minimum.

Yes it was. You’d go moderate to heavy for a few minutes and back to light and then rinse and repeat a few times.

12z EPS is a Dream Run for NC/VA.

AIFS-EPS likes that idea

anyone have the kuchera euro ai clown map for the whole run?

They both sit on these things until it's obvious. I kind of get NashSevereWX's hesitancy as they are entirely social media based and crowd-funded, and when stuff doesn't go to forecast, they get absolutely hammered.

Pete's the best. I went to school with him and he was one of my heroes of forecasting. Always was able to spot things others would miss.

So the rear squalls verified well. HRRR did a great job. Was it bursty like snow squalls?