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If the EPS is correct, after 1/20 it looks like a gradient pattern sets up and gradient patterns in Nina’s very highly favor New England

Oh it’s there. Might get interrupted briefly by a nice cutter but it’s there. We’ll finish January BN on temps unless there is a huge shift in guidance post-weekend.

Does that mean it will snow at my home?

Eps is pretty cold

If we can't score one legit event, 6"+, be Feb 5th then I think our season is cooked.

What a run of the 12z Euro just speaking from a 500 pattern perspective. If snow is on the ground, this is how record lows are broken. Below is textbook, high latitude blocking pattern. As long as that cold air pool is sitting and spinning over Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec....that trough will have a hard time being anywhere but the eastern half of North America. The trough will try to go west from Jan 22-24, but it "appears" there is a very strong Arctic air mass poised to descend well below the 49th parallel. IF THIS IS REAL, many boxes are check for a pattern which would support a winter storm(s) over eastern North America. Trough east of Hawaii, phase 8 MJO, EPO ridge, block over Alaska, -AO, -NAO, and western Europe trough. IF REAL, I would expect there would be a potential storm run an impressive temperature and pressure gradient between cold and warm air masses. That gradient would stretch southwest to northwest. That potential storm could could be a cutter, or over-running event(probable), or EC storm. But when you draw up a pattern for winter weather....this is it. I do NOT know if this will verify, but this look is present across modeling right now in some iteration or another. I pulled the apparent temperature map as this rolls through at 306. And you all know the rules at this range, especially when looking at detailed maps at range. But this is just wild and worth a share IMHO. Those real feel temps. One end of the state is 27 degrees AN, and the other end is 20 degrees BN. That would be an all timer in regards to cold fronts.

looks like its time to schedule a chase

What happened to the cold ?

looks like EPS is going to lose an inch of the snow maps. If we are on the wrong side of the boundry it may be season over because you only get a 1-2 chances for southern stream a year with Nina

Another high in the 50s during what should be the coldest time of the year.

Definitely hasn't seemed to materialize as I thought it would.

I’d say ensembles show potential after the 20th. That could all easily be rain…. We will be flirting with the gradient.. pattern has gone exactly as expected by most so far this month, minus the no snow bad luck part

And the period from the 20 onward is when the eps is very favorable.

Ensembles like the period after the 20th

At the moment it seems next Wed-Sat is a window to watch. I'd favor the interior or Lakes right now but we've seen the SER be overdone at times. I think after that for awhile we may go a bit suppressive and the pattern from the 24-29 may favor the SE or MA. It could be when we begin to see a relaxation the week following that we could see a coastal event.

EPS does have a bit more of a ridge than the GEFS for around the 24th- both have trended to more a trough out west initially before it shifts east and flattens the ridge. Then we have the CMC ens with a trough and a bit of a storm- snow verbatim.

There will be a 2-3 day period next week Tue-Thu or Wed-Fri where the SER builds briefly. This is probably when the OH Valley/NE likely sees a big winter event but thereafter the +PNA likely comes back and that may be a broader trof which makes it more likely a winter event hits the SE somewhere in the 23-30 period

C'mon lol...

Colder weather looks to return within the next few days. But the 1/6-1/11 thaw ended up turning into 1/6-1/15 thaw. Temps weren't too warm, made it to 52 or 53 a few times, but the duration is a bit sizeable. That being said, the cold air coming down the pike will likely push the month below average in terms of temps

It will be interesting to see if that storm cuts or we stay on the cold side of the boundary, although recent trends make me think it's gonna cut. Plus side is that the Jan 18 one could be a sneaky threat for DC and east.

even Ben Noll thinks it could get cold and snowy for the last week of January. Thats like JB saying that any winter is going to be warm

Bingo... absolutely. That's all three, GGEM, GFS and now Euro... well, they've been doing this for days actually; it's been a matter of how much or how little. If you look at that run fro 00 to 200+ hours, it is doing that I think 4 times with a wave capable of dystopian cryo hell ... getting it's nuts cut off by the blade slicing in too close on it's heals. That is why the 20th probably goes like the 18 ...and the 22nd or whatever ...etc I mean we'll see if this changes. But that 20th look there proooobably doesn't get more amped and do the NJ thing... as the forcing's leaning against because of all this

The elusive I95 runner

Up to 49 here sunny.