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Maybe I’m wrong but he’s not showing a “dry slot” over central Nc. At least as extreme as some. Even Allan, he’s got the big numbers but I disclaimer in C zone that it could happen. As said prior, he sees at least 2-3 (if there’s a slot) in Raleigh per an exchange with someone on x.

NAM looked decent at 48h..but extrapolating this model past that is asking for trouble.

I want to call out weird behavior from accuweather. they virtually ignored the storm last week until it was right on our doorstep and then they went with the under in terms of accumulation. This week they are all over this storm and bullish. Immediately put out 1 to 3 inches several days out and with model uncertainty. Just odd

After last week’s public outrage that was totally misdirected towards him, I can’t blame him at all. He could come out and give you his boom scenario, but would that really benefit him? If he forecasts 2-5” and you get 10”, nobody is going to scream. Now if he says 10” and you get 9”, people will bring pitchforks.

12z NAM starts the show at 1600 tomorrow in Knox. Most other models start around 1900 FWIW.

The vort at 45 is noticeably better and digging quite a bit more, with heights rising in New England. This is how someone away from the coastal influence scores a major coup. You can see precip expanding into the foothills, s va and from about Greensboro north.

The Mount Holly discussion is dated 2 days earlier than the NYC discussion...

NAM digging that vort a bit more west lolololol, couldn’t help myself

Hmmm…I wonder why?

StabbyStab is on antifa assignment in Minneapolis.

Because of the 10 day thaw January will be below but not close to one of the coldest overall. Impressive stretch we're in now of course

May have to watch late next week.

Mathematically ... the speed of the flow is absolutely a part and crucial part at that, in the Navier-Stokes momentum of fluid system equations, to which these models are physically responsible for. Propagating a wave through that medium is effected - There may also be other factors involved; I'll just add that I've seen 500 mb progression of Feb 5 1978, and the block decaying was observed as collapsing S - it was in fact what triggers the N/stream to fall S/ subsume scenario. But maybe I don't know what you mean?

Brad not believing in the Charlotte and upstate wins scenarios breaks my heart.

12z NAM looks better at 500mb at 45h. West of both 00z and 06z and a tad less confluence

He’s a complete idiot.

Only down to 7 this morning here. I don't radiate well here

I wasn't going to say this but since you sort of baited me, I will - I'm being completely honest...it "felt" colder in Florida both when I arrived back on the 18th and when I left on the 27th. The combination of temps in the 30s with sustained 20+mph winds and the cold down there is different...it's not as dry down there so it actually feels colder than it does up here. When I was in Jacksonville on Tuesday morning the real feel was 12. It was really, really cold. On the flip side, there were several days last week when it was hot. Mid to high 80s temps with low 70s dewpoints. So I really had a chance to experience the best and worst of Florida's climate in one single trip. Really fascinating how it all went down. I'll add that I'm happy to be home. My trip was an entirely solo trip. (my wife and I are perfectly fine ) I was doing some scouting/research for some opportunities I'm investing in as I transition into retirement in the next several years. I'll share more when it's appropriate.

DEF 3K as it gets into range.

NAM at 39 has a very healthy ribbon of snow, more so than 6Z, breaking out over eastern KY, nw TN and into S VA.

I've seen Metrolina get blanked in so many Low energy transfers that I still expect it to happen. If somehow this is the one time Charlotte wins while RDU loses, I think it's fair though! Though Brad P just posted his call map and it's time to cliff dive cause he doesn't believe in the Upstate/Metrolina jackpots.

Yeah something usually goes wrong. But I think it's always been like that to a large degree. It's why NYC rarely exceeded 80" in a winter even dating back 100+ years and during a colder climate. We just didn't used to so carefully monitor from 10 days out on a dozen different models every 6 hours. It was convoluted in the past too but we just didn't notice.

"Red sky at night, sailors delight; red sky in morning, sailors take warning - a winter storm warning!"