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If the 2006 JMA can predict a record-breaking blizzard for NYC 2 weeks in advance... you never say never about any weather model. Though, the chances of the UKie verifying are statistically improbable.

Third Eye Blind time

I’ll take the CMC and Ukmet runs as an off ramp for myself to block amwx and all model sites so I can get work done tomorrow. I’ll be back sometime around 18z or later.

Wrong thread

976 mb over Hatteras

Actually stays too far east for you or me verbatim. But we have a couple of minutes before it's a threat.

If it snows 18”, I won’t care what happens after the last flake falls :-)

I was never on the ledge, I've been reading other area forums

i couldn't care less if some pellets mix in after 8-12" of snow

Uncle dumps double digits on most of us. These systems inevitably are really good with the cold dome and not enough of an amped low to scour it. Just deep gulf moisture into a gelid arctic dome.

Let's just relax and have a look at the other models. Look, it's only a blip. We got this.

Spent all afternoon lurking in the MA sub. I now have a severe case of whiplash. Holy heck, that used to be entertaining but I just can't keep up anymore down there. Still gonna go out and get the bread and milk tomorrow though. Oh btw it's 3.0°F outside my house right now. It hit 5 this morning, and one of my dogs was trying to do a kangaroo poop because the snow was too cold for her front paws, poor girl. Might try to put on her booties tomorrow morning but I'm not sure that'll be any more comfortable for her...

you've passed me - I'm at 19.8F

Euro has begun. Here's to one more good time before bed

The GEFS has a single member that takes a UKMET-like track through NYS. The 12 GEPS has 2. And the 18z EPS has 4 or 5 including a few that are more amped than the UKMET.

I guess we may not want a full phase and pump the se ridge too much. Not sure if these big changes happen due to recon missions. I would hate to have 18 inches then rain on top making the snow so heavy. But I would love 18 inches... Gonna be anxious next few days wondering how each run will go. Guess gotta stay up for EURO.

After a foot of snow

nobody noticed the blizzard the GFS had? Who are we?

So we can step back off the ledge as stop listening to creed? .

Ya, He lives in a pit there…always colder than surrounding area. 9 here currently.

Thats at the end

Yeah, don't think it plays out like that. Like it could rain, mix, dry slot, whatever, but that high magically weakening 10mb unlike every other model does not make any sense. Feel like other mechanisms of lower totals are way more plausible.

Gefs looks great

Definitely precip issues with the Ukie for at least part of the area.

Friggin pivotal cached me an old run I was looking at 12z, 0z is hot garbage