All Activity

Yep it was in my western sky. It was definitely bright for a split second.

Numerous papers on this new summer warming pattern of cooler in the middle and record warmth in the East and West.

I’m driving to work with the windows down. It feels great.

[As of 5:50 AM 8/26] Mt. Mitchell, NC (6,684') is currently 42°F with a Wind Chill value of 36°F.Reminder: It's still August

Followup: The Euro (0Z) has this again as a weak low just off Africa. It then eventually comes across to just N of the Leewards as a H moving NW though those details aren’t important so far out on an operational. The EPS (0Z) again has a few TC members from this and they all are headed for a safe recurve from the US. The Icon (6Z) has this again at 120 just off Africa. The GFS (6Z) again doesn’t have this develop. Edit: Unlike the 12Z, the 0Z UKMET doesn’t have this as a TC. The 0Z CMC still has this as a weak low.

55 when I left the house, may go a tick lower yet.

Agreed. Most of our summer rains occurred on 7/19 and 8/1. Too much too fast.

Dew point 50 ! Exceptional

55/52

What a beautiful morning out! Temp is down to 49 degrees this morning! Going to be a wonderful day on tap!

It's not. Ridge rebuilds as tropics get active again

Brisk this morning, currently 52

This is the strongest -PMM we have seen in some time. This is only going to enhance La Niña development. The new run on the normally severely warm biased BOM model has begun a cave to a La Niña now

It’s freaking great.

48 this morning. Who ordered this cold? It's only August for Gods sake.

Overnight runs are bone dry for the next 2 weeks. What a strange year precip-wise. Dryish through mid-late April, then wet to very wet through July, and potentially <1” (or even less in spots) from August 1 through mid September.

summer is effectively over the odds of any long stretch of either hot or very warm humid weather 3 days or more is gone..

I remember that one all too well. I was helping Debbie a neighbor on Aug 23 2011. At first i thought it was a concrete truck rumbling by but then I realized we were getting an EARTHQUAKE! Everyone ran out of their houses. I also remember Aug 23 real good because 7 years later it was the very day I left Dale City for good. I can't believe I have been down here in HOT Texas for 7 years already!

0Z followup to all 12Z major ops but GFS showing a surface low forming just off of Africa this weekend: 0Z Icon like 12Z has a sfc low just off Africa Sat. It becomes a TD that day and then a TS by Sun as it moves mainly W just N of the CV Islands.

Can't ask for better weather !!

I'm so interested to see if we get a cold December this year, because strong -QBO/weak -ENSO analogs strongly support it. I remember those similar 2 conditions in the Fall of 2005, we used the 1989 analog, and it worked out great that Winter. Besides that, there is nothing strongly anomalously warm about the global pattern right now, wrt to previous years. I am going to be in the 70s for highs something like 13/14 August days, which is unusual. We had a warm up in June, but cold H5 was overtop of it, so it was a strong +NAO driven warm up. We aren't just popping ridging out of nowhere, like we did a lot 2020-2024. For all this about 2nd year El Nino's being so warm in the global pattern, you don't hear much about 2nd year La Nina's, and the cooling effect. I think since late November last year it's been a cooler US pattern, relative to global warming and all. Will be interesting to see if it lasts into the Winter. Analogs say that odds are starting to become in that favor, the more we get these cooler patterns through the Fall.

Woot woot!

Funny - I wonder if I saw the same one. I am northwest of the city tonight (New Paltz area) and I saw one south and slightly east of me. Maybe that would have appeared wnw of you. Rather bright…showed through a thin cloud. Maybe the same? I’m glad you mentioned it.

Never underestimate the sinking/rising air from MJO waves.

I am on a migraine medication with a side effect of being hotter in heat. It was unbearably hot at times.