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My rain total is 2.35". June is 8.37".

Wake low?

I never was high on Thursday's severe threat because the timing is too early. Late morning to midday is not the timing you want for t-storms. Anyway, Monday appears to be our one big chance for a desperately needed big soaking. Hopefully that will work out, but I'm not getting my hopes up too high yet since it's 5 days away.

Heh... they did expand the Slght into NE after all

It’s going to be so much fun watching your snow and cold obsessed weenie ass squirm this winter. Seeing your disappointment is going to be amazing. Not going to lie, I’m going to get immense joy, laughter and satisfaction out of it. I can’t wait, looking forward to it! Lmfaoooooo

It's kind of like those warm winters where the cold and snow is 10 days away but never moves up in time.

Color me shocked. It's still the case more often than not that wet forecasts fizzle out in the days and hours before. We've had a lot of digital rain. Actual rain, not as much. The half inch last week and half inch again on late Sunday into Monday was helpful, but the overall drought isn't changing much.

G64 at Galveston Island!

Dumb question, but is that the rear inflow et flexing its muscles?

Yeah the back side winds have been impressive.

Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (1952) NYC: 96 (1957) LGA: 96 (1957) JFK: 94 (2022) Lows: EWR: 52 (1950) NYC: 51 (1926) LGA: 53 (1959) JFK: 50 (1965) Historical: 1859 - Hot Santa Ana winds in southern California roasted fruit on one side at Santa Barbara. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1882 - A tornado traveled more than 200 miles across the state of Iowa killing 130 persons. The tornado touched down about ninety miles west of Grinnell, and struck the town and college around sunset, killing sixty persons, and causing more than half a million dollars damage. Traveling at nearly 60 mph, the tornado hit Mount Pleasant about 11 PM causing another half a million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1959: A tropical depression spawned several tornadoes, the most severe in Miami, FL since 1925. A tornado moved northeast through Miami, across Biscayne Bay and then out to sea. 77 people were injured, mostly from flying glass. On this date through the 21st, heavy rains over the southern peninsula caused considerable flooding in poorly drained and low lying agricultural areas and some residential sections. Some highways also sustained flood damage. High tides along the west coast from Tampa south damaged boat docks and caused beach erosion. 5-day rain totals were mostly 7 to 12 inches with some scattered amounts 15 inches or more reported. This Depression went on to become a hurricane and killed 33 lobster fishermen in the Canadian Maritimes. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1960: Heavy rains just west of Binghamton, NY produced 3 inches in less than 30 minutes. Flash flooding was reported in Johnson City, Vestal, and the northern sides of Endicott, NY. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1965 - Holly, CO, was deluged with 11.08 inches of rain to establish a state 24 hour rainfall record. (The Weather Channel) 1967: This was the 24th consecutive day of at least a trace of precipitation at Denver, CO. Precipitation totaled 5.87 inches during that period; more than a third of their total annual rainfall. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1968: On this date through the 18th, Tropical Depression Brenda crossed Key West, FL and moved through central Florida exiting into the Atlantic near Jacksonville. This storm gained hurricane strength north of Bermuda. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1971: Hurricane Bridget passed just 30 miles off of Acapulco, MX. The storm was the worst in 25 years as winds gusted to 100 mph. The flagship of the Admiral of the Mexican Navy went down during the storm. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1978: An F2 tornado hit the showboat "Whippoorwill" on Pomona Lake in Osage County, Kansas as it left the dock for a dinner cruise. 16 of the 58 passengers drowned as the boat capsized, making the twister the deadliest tornado of the year. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1982: On this date through the 18th, a subtropical storm moved from the southeast Gulf of Mexico, northeast across the central Florida Peninsula into the Atlantic causing at least 12 tornadoes, On the Manatee River, 20 families were evacuated. The Peace River crested a week after the storm causing the evacuation of 130 families. A one and a half year old boy drowned in a flooded drainage ditch, and a Brevard County woman drowned when her canoe turned over, her four year old son was rescued after clinging to the canoe for six hours. 12 tornadoes were reported between the morning of the 17th and the morning of the 18th from Dade and Broward Counties to Polk and Volusia counties. On the evening of the 17th, a tornado destroyed five trailers and two cars in northwest Hendry County, killing a man in a trailer and seriously injuring his wife. Another tornado moved through the Lake Josephine area in Highlands County destroying 23 homes and mobile homes and damaging many more, injuring nine people. The 10 other tornadoes caused much property damage, but no deaths or serious injuries. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985: The highest wind occurrence at Columbia, MO was recorded at 95 mph. This wind occurred on the same day that a tornado struck the Columbia Regional Airport causing damage to 22 planes. 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S. Thunderstorms in Kansas produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Lyons, and baseball size hail at Garden City. The Edwards Aquifer, which supplies water to San Antonio, TX, reached a record level of 699.2 feet following a record 18.43 inches of rain in thirty days. Torrential rains between the mid May and mid June sent 8.8 million acre feet of water down the rivers of southern Texas, the largest volume in 100 years of records. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Georgia and the Carolinas. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 75 mph at Eden, NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Unseasonably cool air, responsible for 37 record lows in the central U.S. on the 15th and 16th, including a low of 33 degrees at Valentine NE on the 15th, overspread the eastern U.S. ending a three day seige of severe weather. (The National Weather Summary) 1990: Extensive damage was also reported from Climbing Hill to Correctionville. Microburst winds of 105 mph were recorded at the Spencer Airport. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1991: Record cold occurred over the Pacific Northwest. New record low temperature marks were established at Burns, OR with 31° and Yakima, WA with 36°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2001: Tropical Storm Allison formed off the coast of Texas and moved inland on the 6th. The storm remained well organized and brought torrential rain and flooding from Texas, through the southern states and into the Mid-Atlantic region on its 10 day journey to the Atlantic Ocean. Allison regained tropical storm strength again east of Atlantic City, NJ. Rainfall amounts of more than 10 inches were measured in the northwest suburbs of Philadelphia, PA. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2009: A tornado leveled a house knocks down power poles and overturns about a dozen railroad cars in Aurora, Nebraska. The tornado is rated EF2, with winds between 111 and 135 mph.

Picked up a surprising .34" early this morning. Wasn't expecting that.

Wind really roared here for about 10-15 minutes. 51MPH gust at recorded at DKB. Power has flickered several times. 53 degrees out. Pretty unreal for June 17, feels more like April 17. ETA: Winds still going, 49MPH gust recorded as well.

TS Arthur has been born:

79 / 54 some clouds humidity increasing. Warmup to upper 70s / low 80s today with warmfront some showers/storms. Thursday a one day heat affair as many get into the low 90s. Drops back near normal and looling like a fantastic weekend. Next shot at some widespread stroms and rain is Monday 05 - 1.00 > in the area. Trough into the east 6/19 - 6/24 but generally or overall near normal. Warmer to close the month with the next heat pushing and expanding east 6/30 and beyond into the start of next month with trough west / ridging east.

Absolutely gorgeous outside right now. Nice cool breeze. Sun is strong though. We getting storms today? Big clouds building to my west going from ne to sw.

he's had some wins in the past, but this is definitely not one of them

Will any of the rain make it to DC and if so when? Thanks

one of the worst md’s and watches from them this year, maybe the worst. totally uncalled for.

It isn't like you will ever make a good post

He is really good at forecasting.

Well, this thing is far from over for those of us down in my area and west. There were always 2 shortwaves forecasted with this for the last 72 hours and a lot of questions if the WF would make it up to the IN/MI border after this initial shortwave. Spacing will be everything. The surface reflection is just now getting wound up. TBH, this MCS is coming through a couple hours sooner than I was expecting.. There's still a good chance of recovery as the second SW comes through and the surface low rapidly deepens. I think at least S of I80 to the I70 corridor from MO up through Central IN and Western OH are still going to be under the gun for broken lines of long tracked sups from around 3pm on. Especially if that LLJ cranks up like it did yesterday. You don't need huge Capes and/or dews in the mid to upper 70's with a setup like this. We know this from our experiences with early and late season powerful kinematic setups like this. 60 to 180 veering winds through the column can more than make up for large Capes IMO. I'm not shutting the door at all yet.

Well, hello!!

Quite breezy as the backside of the rain starts to work through

it's not like you're going to make any good posts about the ongoing kelvin wave