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I was in Melbourne, Florida when Hurricane David passed over head. Only hurricane I was in the eye.

There seems to be growing consensus that an intense MCS will form over northeast OH and western PA late this afternoon and move southeast. While it (shocker) appears that the best threat will be over southeast PA, at least some of the complex should make it into northern MD and potentially into the Baltimore-Washington corridor later this evening or overnight.

ENH risk introduced in PA/OH on 1630z OTLK from SPC

Thanks for your reply, John. I’m asking anyone but tagged Don only because he’s been about the most involved with me in the discussion about the Nepal disaster and thus wanted to make sure he sees this. Martz appears to be correct in saying that there aren’t going to be many days that go >0C based on my just now seeing what’s down below that I’m quoting from the link below. If ~+1C really is the warmest at 5,364 m or 17.6K feet, is there going to be significant melting way up there? https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-highest-and-lowest-temperatures-ever-recorded-at-Mt-Everest-base-camp “Highest and lowest recorded temperatures at Everest Base Camp (EBC) depend on which camp and which dataset, but reliable observations come from automatic weather stations (AWS) installed at the South Base Camp (Nepal side, ~5,364 m) and other nearby high-altitude stations. Summary of best-available values (observations and published AWS records, through May 2024): Highest recorded air temperature South (Nepal) Base Camp AWS: about −1.0 °C to +1.0 °C on the warmest days in late spring/early summer (typically May). Many published station summaries and expedition logs report peak values near 0 °C; a commonly cited peak is ~+0.5 °C. Slightly warmer spot measurements in sunlight or lower-elevation tent sites can exceed +1 °C briefly, but sustained, instrumented air-temperature peaks at the official South Base Camp are around 0 °C to +1 °C.”

Crap is in the hand of the beholder.

Thank you, I am just trying to understand all of this better. So then it looks like things should start to pick up again heat wise over the next week.

Well the radar sure collapsed. What a terrible, pathetic day. It feels like a miserable July evening. Any radar returns here are coming from the mosquitoes, certainly not precip.

https://cyclonicwx.com/models/hovmoller/

0.03”!

What a hot mess that site is. You have to wonder if the precipitation readings are also affected as well as the temperatures. Can't tell what the tree canopy looks like but quite possible it could be affecting the rain gauge. Doubt that tree removal makes anything more than a minimal difference in temperature readings. That little plot of land must have its own micro climate going on. Thanks for the picture.

Its not going to make it to the forecasted high today with all the cloud cover, even with clearing arriving shortly. Current conditions at Wilmington Airport (KILG) Lat: 39.67°NLon: 75.61°WElev: 72ft. 79°F 26°C Humidity 85% Wind Speed W 14 mph Barometer 30.04 in (1016.9 mb) Dewpoint 74°F (23°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 83°F (28°C) Last update 3 Sep 11:51 am EDT

Weekend looks kinda crappy

North wind at 18 knots is far from ideal for us beach folk.

"Global warming doesn’t cause bedrock to buckle...." whaaaat, um, no. I mean I realize you're asking Don but I could help my self. Just in brief and off the top of the head, there are three easy aspects in how CC may both directly and indirectly factor. 1, glacial rebound. 2, liquid water fluxing 3, bedrock? With rebound, that happens because if land spends multiple multiple Millennia in a stable/colder climate regime, the ice accumulation weighs down. This gravitational anomaly supplies a constant pressure downward into the undergirding and surrounding bedrock. Over time ...succumbs by sinking. Remove the ice, the land may rebound... upward. And it doesn't do so according to any necessary ease. It tends to do so in jolts felt as tremors. With increasing melt ( liquid flux) the basal water may enter ground; in CC, the warming summer means this quantity is rising. Over decades, repetitious freezing and thawing literally cracks the Earth due to phase change expansion(contraction). How much so notwithstanding. But this is a weakening implication in the integrity of the supporting geology beneath the overriding ice - failure ( land slide) results. These two also work together. In fact, #2 actually happens first, then... #1 tremor triggers the landslide. Whether these factors were in play in the higher terrain/alpine region of Nepal, I am not claiming so.. But Mr Martz makes a blanket all preclusive statement that is epistemically false. Beyond these two, the third relates to, what officiating/reviewed source said or analyzed and proved that "bedrock" indeed failed? It is possible that the undergirding was actually a strata of compressed glacial deposits mixed with icy compressed rubble. An avalanche was inevitable - probably so, anyway, but if this was the type of supporting foundation beneath the overcasting of ice weight ( which itself was calving the leading segments), then the whole structure probably would not need to wait for the geological time for #1 and #2 to work together.

People here look at Pittsburg and the Alleghenies and extrapolate that weather magically changes as soon as you cross the Mason Dixon. Look at the philly forum and a lot of times they're dealing with the same patterns as us. It holds in winter too if there's been a lack of Miller B's.

Yeah it ended up being just yellow on radar that went over us. Moderate rain for awhile that added up to 0.33" here. Fine because we've had plenty of rain lately.

It's a month long respite that's about to end. Modeling was showing a wet September before abruptly collapsing last week.

SC PA has done pretty well the last 2 days, but its amazing how we are part of that Hagerstown split that happens a lot. Chambersburg and Frederick will get smoked and we'll get a little distant thunder on the M/D.

Hawaii is a hurricane magnet now

Well, for most places east of the BR it has gotten wetter. Much wetter.

I don't know, the Philadelphia area is often in a drought pattern when we're in one too.