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Most of the guidance missed the record 100° heat last week from the long range guidance earlier in the month. Models don’t do very well with extremes beyond the week one and week two forecast periods. My guess is that the guidance beyond 15 days just reverts to whatever ENSO climo applies to the situation. In this case it was the usually cooler May climo it was forecasting to continue. So it missed the strong MJO 4-6 pulse which is very warm in the East. This was also why the Euro and other seasonal models missed the warmth in the East for the 2023-2024 super El Niño. They had the stock El Niño composite with a deep trough in the East. Instead we got the record MJO 4-6 pulse with the more Niña-like January 2024 even with the recent +2.1 ONI in Nino 3.4. So the long range model forecasts were reverting to the typical El Niño 500mb composite. Something similar happened in December 2015 with the long range model forecasts missing the record warmth in the East due to the record MJO 5. So long range models like to forecast just for whatever the ENSO is and they can’t resolve the MJO activity in the IO to WPAC. The record warm pool there has been resulting in more frequent and stronger MJO 4-7 activity than the old days when the SSTs were significantly cooler there.

Wife dragging me yard saling. 58 when I left the house with .11” of additional rainfall.

3.98” IMBY since Wednesday

Does a Ditty calendar week include a Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday?

Models didn't fail this weekend. They predicted ass and it certainly has been. If anything, they under did the extent of the ass.

It’s mainly NNE rain

All models have something

Next weekend looks like poop even on ensembles

Next weekend looks fine. 60’s and dry . Gfs will fail again

Decent slug of rain now; should clear out by late morning. Maybe we can salvage the afternoon?

.27 “ of rain over night. 57 degrees and a light drizzle this morning. Coal stove still fired up 70 degrees.

It will be worth it for the sneaky S+ risk! Noted the 06z GFS has a max of 4.55" rainfall right over FIT. Seems a lot for such a low track. Where is all the moisture coming from, esp. since there is not much of a sfc low initially? GFS not so OTL it seems b/c the 00z ECMWF has a max of 2.81" in the same exact spot. That kind of pcpn intensity and a cold 850? Things that make you go hmmmm....

But it does matter how you slice it; and, you continue to cherry pick favorable comparisons and ignore the rest. I stated above that the slope difference between NCEI and PHL between 2000 and 2025 was not statistically different. Expanding the yaxis doesn't change that result. Looking over a longer period and re-normalizing the yaxis, we see that the delta between Chester County and the Philadelphia Airport has stayed the same since 1970. The delta goes up and down but without a long-term trend; 2000 just happens to be a minimum. Doesn't matter whether you use NCEI or high quality sites like Coatesville, Avondale USCRN, and DEOS. The answer is the same.

Up to .82” so far since Saturday, not stein but not impressive by any means. The lawn and plants are happy!

We’ve already lost next weekend. WTF?

Imagine if it was all snow

1.5 and it's raining again.

Showers The rain made my job easier this weekend

Eureka! It has been dumping on Lake Norman all night. Cornelius might wind up with 2-3 inches just in the last 4 hours.

00z GFS significantly stronger and tucked back farther W w/ the closed 500 low for May 30. It shows 4-8" parts of nrn NH. What stands out is that the 00z GFS/ICON and the earlier UKMET show substantial QPF, 2-3" in some areas. This is absolutely key for the Scott S+ this time of year (intensity). I like that the GFS is showing more sfc low development just S of the region for more ageostrophic flow.

Yeah I'm closing in on an inch tonight already. Drought is getting some Mike Tyson haymakers

This batch moving through means business. 2.23” since 6:30 pm. Event tally so far is 4.33” which is easily the best rain I’ve had since moving here nearly 4 years ago.

Today’s Euro Weekly for May 25-31 is even wetter in the SE and is close to the wettest on the entire globe for that week for land areas in terms of anomalies! This has a max of 3.5-4” over N GA/far NW SC and 2”+ for just about the entire SE, just what the drought doc ordered!

June 6-10th ov/upper ma/ne

WHOA Charles Town is up to 17.5 inches of rain! Those folks may soon be leading the entire nation in rain tallies! They have gone up 4 inches in the last three days. It looks like Charles Town, W Va and Binghamton, NY are gonnabe battlin' it on out for who has the most rain this year. It's official! Binghamton has edged Buda out of contention! The Score is Binghamton 18.83 to Buda at 18.7. Guess who's gonna win. Everyone East gets rain, Rain is like air east of Ole Miss. But Texas is a DRY DRY DRY place. We in Texas are easy as shoosh to beat when it comes to rainfall. I keep on thinking of what its gonnabe like when Austin is a 300 mile wide hypermegalopolis from reshoring and ultra cheap energy and ultra tech - but runs out of fresh water from millions and millions and millions and millions of people sucking up the little that's left in the aquifers and the Colorado River is a strip of desert sand. We best find a way to synthesize fresh water last millennium or there's gonnabe millions of people mass departing the DRY BOWL that is Texas! We are about to witness a complete civilizational upgrade all across the Nation then the Planet! So many new industries! So much robotics and AI! AI is going to be everywhere! If you happen to be a NERD you are gonnabe so damn stinking RICH you won't believe it! A hell of a lot of money that used to just disappear into certain places I will not mention - WILL BE FLOWING STRAIGHT TO AMERICANS and then everyone on the planet! The next three years are going to leave a lot of amazed people in total shock, with their jaws resting on the ground. This will not result from me digging Dale City out of a record 48 inch snowstorm. Although later on with sparkling new medical protocols, that just might happen lol.